ENY
1984 total pilots
~300 who will retire here
~1650 who could flow
attrition over 6 years to other carriers, estimate 300 easy (could be much more)
So, we need to flow 1350 over 6 years for a new hire today to go to AA
50% flow (essentially) to 10-2011 DOH (majority of our list) with less than 300 on list after that. After that they flow at 35% of each class, no fewer than 15 each month.
600-800 projected new hires at AA next year
300 ENY Pilots to flow
Retirements at AA pick up starting this year

Do the math at roughly 300 a year flowing to AA

Somebody getting hired at Envoy today will have the entire list dumping out above them very swiftly now that the hiring really begins to take off.
Look at the hiring this year from other major carriers.
It's starting !!

2,879 Pilots hired THIS year at real jobs.

Alaska Airlines
Hired 20 pilots in September and 215 year-to-date. Verified by FAPA on 10 OCT 2015
American Airlines
Will continue to hire into 2015. Hired 254 year-to-date. Verified by FAPA on 21 OCT 2015
Delta Air Lines
Hired 22 pilots in September and 813 year-to-date. Verified by FAPA on 19 OCT 2015
FedEx
Hired 12 pilots in September and 99 year-to-date. Verified by FAPA on 19 OCT 2015
JetBlue
Hired 5 pilots in September and 193 year-to-date. Verified by FAPA on 10 OCT 2015
Southwest Airlines
Hired approximately 174 year-to-date. Expects to hire 348 during 2015. Verified by FAPA on 21 OCT 2015
Spirit Airlines
Hired 28 pilots in September and 226 year-to-date. Verified by FAPA on 10 OCT 2015
United Airlines
Hired 66 pilots in September and646 year-to-date. Verified by FAPA on 19 OCT 2015
UPS
Hired 7 pilots in September and 85 year-to-date. Sending pilot recruiters to FAPA.aero Pilot Career Conference & Job Fair in Orlando on November 20th. Verified by FAPA on 21 OCT 2015

Cujo,
Isn't October the month that AA allocates flying for next year? When will we hear who gets what? And I understand the -145s are coming back from XJT and possibly TSA next year. Will those stay at envoy or head over to PDT?

MEC officers were in DC this week for executive board meeting, FFD meeting and grievance meetings (we kicked their butts BTW - see your MEC Newsblast on $1.2M in awards over the past 4 months)

We should hear near the end of the month when they're done, or by early November at the latest I'd think.

There is a 2 year CPA and a 4 year CPA, and the birds can come back once reaching the next heavy check. (possibly the next C check, I've heard it both ways)

AAG will likely send them wherever they can be staffed best would be my guess; they haven't promised anything.

Be curious to see how many of those hired at "real" jobs were military. I bet over 50%.. Probably around 1500 of the 2800..

UPS/Fedex probably more like 85% military. SWA around 70%, DAL and AA not far behind at 66-70% from the charted numbers.. Alaska?

Jetblue/Spirit/UAL are where most of the actual civilian 121 pilots even get looked at favorably.

I personally know just as many that went to United or Delta as did to JetBlue. JetBlue favors military very strongly actually. They run job fairs specifically for vets. Not so sure how accurate your observation is anymore.
In the old days, I'd agree quickly.... not so much now

953 of 1443 is Military at DAL from the 2014-August 2015 hiring update chart.

I've seen the charts for the others around but can't find them right now. They are about the same, except SWA/Fedex/UPS are still Heavily favored military colonel factories, it's almost a mandatory requirement at Fedex. How many civilians do you personally know that have gone there? I know zero.

EVERYONE I know at Eagle getting called at SWA lately is ex military. Used Eagle for currency and a year or so of 121 time. None of our highly qualified long time 121 Captains I know trying hard for them are getting called. Sucks, but it is what it is.

Guess it just makes the flow even more valuable. 8,000 hours + 121 PIC time isn't what it use to be..

I think the problem is new hires. The new hire classes (except for Aug) are pretty anemic and who can't blame people for choosing Compass or PSA when you consider the upgrade times those companies are currently offering. And every time the union, or even mgmt, offers new ideas and ways to attract people, it gets shot down by our Ex-Us Airways overlords. The numbers support your case, I just don't think there's enough new people coming in to support such strong future movement at Envoy.

This.
The company needs to pay new hires more, expedite the 824 prior to PSA flows, and retain flying. Doing so will ease the suck of first year, get folks off reserve and start the upgrade train moving. AAG is holding out for something by not fixing these issues. More than likely they will act too late.

Maybe holding off to RAH failure and bring those pilots in house and say "see increasing pay will bring you down, we gotta stay competitive".

It really sick me how management work. I think the next 6 month something will happen. They either hold PSA flow until next December, or merge some airlines, or buy some airline.

Ric's numbers were only based on 15 new hires per month.

AA just upped their hiring projection for 2016 from 600 to 750.

375 Envoy
60 PSA
36 PDT

Leaves 275 for off the street