eaglefly

Not going to happen. AAG couldn't reallocate all Envoy's feed in that time frame (next year). The ground operation is branching out to service other carriers and normal turnover there is moderate to high. The flight department is destined for consolidation with another carrier. Envoy will continue steady contraction though before that happens, which doesn't bode well for F/O upgrades and even possibly some very junior captain downgrades (not to include those in NYC who choose downgrade for commuting purposes). The AA flow will go through another hiatus next year as the remainder of AA furloughees return who plan to, but how many is a wild card. There are perhaps 900 who must make that decision and if even 1/3 choose to return, that could take 7-8 months at a steady 40/month.

I think the remainder of the 824 will cross the fence before consolidation (all gone by early 2017), but once consolidation occurs and seniority is them determined, any new flow will mean previous legacy Envoy pilots who had ball-parked their flow to AA based on the "protected pilot" agreement will then have that recalculated to include all pilots at the merged carrier if it is a wholly-owned. If Envoy flight is shrunk to whatever point and then divested to a non wholly-owned regional, all bets are off on flow to AA. At the time of consolidation, Envoy will be a two fleet carrier with no more than 1000 total pilots and likely less. I could see 40 E-175's and 40 E-145's by early-mid 2017 divided between DFW and ORD.

pagey

You truly are a D bag of the highest order.

YOU started the PSA conversation, and now post this just to stir the pot?

No one is taking your bait, you are worthless scum. I hope your GV(E145) job is going well.

eaglefly

Temporary. AAG's regional network in TOTAL is contracting, so what one carrier might be achieving now isn't a good overall litmus for the grand scheme. What's occurring now is simply a morphing of the model. Some expand while others contract, but the overall networks present size can not be supported in the future. It will steadily shrink. At some point, the musical chairs approach by pilots will not produce the desired results (quicker upgrade) and the music will stop for the most part. Where a pilot is when that happens depends on the risks they took and the timing. The future newbies will steadily dwindle as well. At some point in the near future, a different approach will be necessary for all three legacies regarding their regional networks.

I think mainline 100-seaters (Group 1 @ AA) will be tapped to provide a good portion of former regional flying in the future by all three legacies. Both United and AAG are in fact, exploring that as we speak. AA has only 20 E-190's (Group 1) and despite those being mostly allocated for specific east coast shuttle duty, that is too small a fleet for a 1000 aircraft airline. The regionals won't disappear but return to a much smaller component as it used to be.

tom11011

I agree with your assessment.

snippercr

Hey come on, for RJ Pilot standards, that was actually pretty clever. Not that I disagree with you. In fact I even fixed your post.

PilotJ3

The only problem is that the "protected pilots" agreement it says that is for anyone on Envoy seniority list before 10-11-2011. They can recalculate the hires after that date, not before.

Other than that I think you're right.

Marlin

I don't post much here, but keep abreast of what is going on at the regionals, envoy in particular . I spent 10.5 years at metro/ eagle prior to being hired at AA in 2000. I believe the group1 aircraft order at AA, and likely at DL and UAL is the most likely outcome of the shortage now happening at the regionals. Group 1 pay is less(obviously) than 2.. But is a living wage for FO, and the equivalent of mid level group 2 FO for CA. Will be the entry level seat at AA.
As a comparison... I made $21.60 after 6 months on a jetstream, 25 years ago.. Mesa starting pay..$22.00... Shameful... And THAT is the root cause of the shortage!!
Regards, and best of luck to us all

snippercr

My understanding is that there is no order planned for group 1 aircraft and that Parker even said having the 20 190s is too small to justify the fleet.

eaglefly

You're assuming that this or any other contractual provisions in your current CBA will survive the consolidation. Don't bet on that. This among other things (like 18-year pay scales) are among the very reasons AAG is putting Envoy in the position it is now in and why it is positioning it for consolidation. They plan to eliminate the remaining uncompetitive aspects of Envoy. It would be counter productive to the acquiring entity to transfer Envoy pilots to a new entity that would acquire its assets and set up and "us and them" situation among the pilots whereby former Envoy have special rights not granted others (or grandfathered to unnecessary higher pay scales).

You can expect that if you choose to transfer at the time of acquisition of remaining Envoy assets, you'll have to accept employment under the acquirers pilots CBA and that includes their pay scales (18-year won't exist), the flow structure then in place or one negotiated to benefit all pilots based on seniority without favor and seniority to be arbitrated. You of course will have the option to decline those requirements and seek employment elsewhere. AAG isn't going to consolidate the dinosaur Envoy (AAG's belief of their competitive pilot labor costs and benefits relative to the industry) and retain all their albatrossian aspects or create a caste system within the consolidated carrier. Your MEC will agree to whatever terms are offered as the other option would be far worse for the pilots.

They will have no choice.

jdflyer1999

No current order.

Parker stated that the 190's will either grow or go away.