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Originally Posted by Cujo665
(Post 1969299)
Or they just merge, consolidate or buy... Plenty of options yet.
They've only got billions to play with. |
Originally Posted by Cujo664
(Post 1969402)
Exactly. 68% of the AA hires this year were from Envoy. They are doing exactly what they said they were going to do. Right now, the plan is for 15 in October and 15 in November with 0 in December. Things can change though and we may get some in December as well.
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Originally Posted by Shiner
(Post 1969383)
I keep hearing that if new hires quit showing up, AA will slam the brakes on the flow. In a scenario where every regional is shrinking because pilots are leaving for better jobs, do you really think AA would be dumb enough to kill the flow? Think about what would happen if they did.
There are of course, many various scenarios as to how this will play out. For instance, when RAH goes into bankruptcy, one mainline company could try to purchase the company for their exclusive use (Think Delta with Endeavor) but I am not sure if the Bankruptcy Court would allow them to void the contracts for the other two mainline ASAs. They could allow RAH to be parted out as was done with TWA. As AAG finds less and less of their regional contractors meeting their ASA requirements, they will have to do something. Parker has already reacted to current shortfalls by bringing the flying back to AA mainline (reduced S80 retirement schedule) and envoy (E140/145s out of the desert and keeping CRJ7 longer). Both solutions created greater movement at envoy through the flow and expansion. To meet this need, I think that we will see more and more retention and attraction initiatives. I think greater pay and flowthrough assurance would do wonders for their ability to attract "lateral" movers. As time goes on, maybe as it becomes more obvious that the "best way to AA is through envoy" maybe more guys will be motivated to make the move. Another possible scenario might involve AAG converting their E175 orders to E190 orders at AA which again, means more flows and movement at envoy. ( They already have the E190 program in place, such a transition could be done in just a few months ) What if the regional staffing problem worsens? Could they move the "regional" flying over to mainline? I don't think they would unless they absolutely had to but if they did, what regional airline would they do that with? One with an already established flow program or some random outside contractor? I don't know how this whole pilot shortage will pan out. I don't even think Doug Parker could answer that question but current trends certainly point to things working out better for a wholly owned over an outside company. I have heard that they have somewhere just under 300 pilots in the Envoy Flight Instructor Pipeline Program. This will likely only supply a third of the pilots needed at envoy each year but it does show that Parker and Company are making positive changes at envoy. These opportunities do not favor those who hesitate or wait. Waiting to see if Parker is serious about using the flow to attract pilots, waiting until more "Good News" is announced, waiting to see if it works for other pilots will only ensure that one will be on the back side of that wave. |
Originally Posted by FlameNSky
(Post 1969668)
I expect that in the future, they will still have trouble recruiting. Industry wide (regional) there are simply not enough pilots to fill the vacancies and it will take 5 years or more to attract new people to the industry, given the training and experience requirements.
There are of course, many various scenarios as to how this will play out. For instance, when RAH goes into bankruptcy, one mainline company could try to purchase the company for their exclusive use (Think Delta with Endeavor) but I am not sure if the Bankruptcy Court would allow them to void the contracts for the other two mainline ASAs. They could allow RAH to be parted out as was done with TWA. As AAG finds less and less of their regional contractors meeting their ASA requirements, they will have to do something. Parker has already reacted to current shortfalls by bringing the flying back to AA mainline (reduced S80 retirement schedule) and envoy (E140/145s out of the desert and keeping CRJ7 longer). Both solutions created greater movement at envoy through the flow and expansion. To meet this need, I think that we will see more and more retention and attraction initiatives. I think greater pay and flowthrough assurance would do wonders for their ability to attract "lateral" movers. As time goes on, maybe as it becomes more obvious that the "best way to AA is through envoy" maybe more guys will be motivated to make the move. Another possible scenario might involve AAG converting their E175 orders to E190 orders at AA which again, means more flows and movement at envoy. ( They already have the E190 program in place, such a transition could be done in just a few months ) What if the regional staffing problem worsens? Could they move the "regional" flying over to mainline? I don't think they would unless they absolutely had to but if they did, what regional airline would they do that with? One with an already established flow program or some random outside contractor? I don't know how this whole pilot shortage will pan out. I don't even think Doug Parker could answer that question but current trends certainly point to things working out better for a wholly owned over an outside company. I have heard that they have somewhere just under 300 pilots in the Envoy Flight Instructor Pipeline Program. This will likely only supply a third of the pilots needed at envoy each year but it does show that Parker and Company are making positive changes at envoy. These opportunities do not favor those who hesitate or wait. Waiting to see if Parker is serious about using the flow to attract pilots, waiting until more "Good News" is announced, waiting to see if it works for other pilots will only ensure that one will be on the back side of that wave. Reminds me of somone with his hands pressed against his ears saying, "...laa......laa......laa......laa.........." Too funny ! |
Originally Posted by FlameNSky
(Post 1969668)
I expect that in the future, they will still have trouble recruiting. Industry wide (regional) there are simply not enough pilots to fill the vacancies and it will take 5 years or more to attract new people to the industry, given the training and experience requirements.
There are of course, many various scenarios as to how this will play out. For instance, when RAH goes into bankruptcy, one mainline company could try to purchase the company for their exclusive use (Think Delta with Endeavor) but I am not sure if the Bankruptcy Court would allow them to void the contracts for the other two mainline ASAs. They could allow RAH to be parted out as was done with TWA. As AAG finds less and less of their regional contractors meeting their ASA requirements, they will have to do something. Parker has already reacted to current shortfalls by bringing the flying back to AA mainline (reduced S80 retirement schedule) and envoy (E140/145s out of the desert and keeping CRJ7 longer). Both solutions created greater movement at envoy through the flow and expansion. To meet this need, I think that we will see more and more retention and attraction initiatives. I think greater pay and flowthrough assurance would do wonders for their ability to attract "lateral" movers. As time goes on, maybe as it becomes more obvious that the "best way to AA is through envoy" maybe more guys will be motivated to make the move. Another possible scenario might involve AAG converting their E175 orders to E190 orders at AA which again, means more flows and movement at envoy. ( They already have the E190 program in place, such a transition could be done in just a few months ) What if the regional staffing problem worsens? Could they move the "regional" flying over to mainline? I don't think they would unless they absolutely had to but if they did, what regional airline would they do that with? One with an already established flow program or some random outside contractor? I don't know how this whole pilot shortage will pan out. I don't even think Doug Parker could answer that question but current trends certainly point to things working out better for a wholly owned over an outside company. I have heard that they have somewhere just under 300 pilots in the Envoy Flight Instructor Pipeline Program. This will likely only supply a third of the pilots needed at envoy each year but it does show that Parker and Company are making positive changes at envoy. These opportunities do not favor those who hesitate or wait. Waiting to see if Parker is serious about using the flow to attract pilots, waiting until more "Good News" is announced, waiting to see if it works for other pilots will only ensure that one will be on the back side of that wave. I've been saying this all along. Pilots are the new currency. Whoever has the pilots will get the flying awarded to them. With Envoy's leading flow program I'm expecting more lateral movers from RAH, Mesa and the like. |
Hey Envoy guys quick question. Did you guys loose more flying for October? An FO on the ground freq in DFW was really letting this Mesa guy have it for having a question about a taxi route. Wouldn't be surprised if that crew gets a not so happy e mail some time, it was that bad. But I was just wondering because I thought you were better than that.
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Originally Posted by ScottyDo
(Post 1969730)
Hey Envoy guys quick question. Did you guys loose more flying for October? An FO on the ground freq in DFW was really letting this Mesa guy have it for having a question about a taxi route. Wouldn't be surprised if that crew gets a not so happy e mail some time, it was that bad. But I was just wondering because I thought you were better than that.
Actually, there was an email a while back saying we were gaining block hours each month this fall. I'm not sure what a change in block hours would have to do with one FO being a d-bag anyway. Every airline has them. Hopefully this guy gets set straight. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
Originally Posted by ScottyDo
(Post 1969730)
Hey Envoy guys quick question. Did you guys loose more flying for October? An FO on the ground freq in DFW was really letting this Mesa guy have it for having a question about a taxi route. Wouldn't be surprised if that crew gets a not so happy e mail some time, it was that bad. But I was just wondering because I thought you were better than that.
Also, why is it so hard for so many people on here to spell "lose"? "Loose" is like a sloppy blown out vajayjay. |
Here are the Envoy flow numbers to date:
http://i57.tinypic.com/2q0qe6u.png |
Originally Posted by Cujo664
(Post 1969705)
^^^^This
I've been saying this all along. Pilots are the new currency. Whoever has the pilots will get the flying awarded to them. With Envoy's leading flow program I'm expecting more lateral movers from RAH, Mesa and the like. Two pages back you were bashing it. |
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