I'm calling it BS, yes.

No, it's not BS. You are probably unaware that the ag38(X) accounts are just duplicate accounts of a troublemaker here at APC.

If you want to get an idea of the flow to AA, look at this page:
American Airlines | AirlinePilotCentral.com

Scroll down to the very bottom, and you will get an idea of the mandatory retirements by year. This does not take into account inactive pilots nor attrition (probably negligible).

Of course, this may change if the retirement age gets modified.

There are those that doubt the flow timeline, but no one can predict for sure, actually. I think it is possible, based on the little I know about Envoy, and talking to people a lot smarter than me. There are several factors to consider that people outside Envoy probably don't know enough about to be making any claims.

ag386 is a troll. He doesn't work at Envoy and I'm sorry you had to interact with him. If you want a serious answer, PM me or anyone else who actually works at Envoy.

You'll get no certainties here on this question, only opinions. Here's another; No one (and I mean NO ONE) can make any reasonable assumption an Envoy new-hire of today will flow in X years, especially over half a decade from now. Same with PDT or PSA. Too many variables, like what becomes of Envoy (or the others) as the next year or two unfolds, what outside situations impact the industry and what AA does regarding its size and future need for pilots where retirement numbers don't necessarily dictate hiring requirements.

Will an Envoy new-hire of today flow in 6 years ir less ?

Maybe, maybe not. All the AAG flow pojections are nothing more then gambling odds in Vega$. You may win or you may lose.

He/she is right. Ask our 1999 hires.

6 years is best case scenario. Based on mandatory retirements at AA. Assuming each one is replaced, based on envoys flow percentage and rick even added in some outside attrition at envoy. Is that possible? Yes. But I would plan for longer and if it happens it will be a pleasant surprise.

Some have claimed I am simply disgruntled because "my" flow didn't work out (which it actually did considering the alternatives) and it took a decade to actually transfer. That happened because of two things, first, the unanticipated outside forces (9/11) that impacted this industry AND second, the actions of the entities that controlled/influenced the mechanism itself, that being A. my own managements situation in the first half of that decade (a similar one present Envoy management is in, only worse) where they ensured the flow went as slow as possible and B., the actions of an opposing union (APA) who then impeded my flow (and ultimately attempted to cancel it altogether) in the latter portion.

Point being, 6 years is a LONG time considering the outside political and economic forces present nowadays and significant risk is there for another negative impact on what is a cyclical industry and present AAG and Envoy managements aren't likely on the same long-term page, so what AAG has planned for Envoy in the next year or two could significantly alter the flow rate for present Envoy pilots. Some cry that "things are different now" and that is folly and hope. Things are NOT different now and in fact, very much the same. Will it take a decade like me for a Envoy new-hire of today to flow to AA ?

Again, it's simply a WAG, but I would guess no, not that long unless something truly unforeseen occurs. But hanging your head on a 6 year promise is shaky at best, IMO. BTW, when the original flow (Letter 3) was sold to us in 1997, we were told that ALL present Eagle pilots were projected to be able to flow to AA within 5 years. Sound familiar ?

For accuracy reference regarding that then claim, by 2010 (roughly 13 years after that claim), only about 125 Eagle pilots had actually flowed to AA property (out of 1500-2000 in the window at the time of that claim ?). Clearly, it is running better now, but again, I think that's simply a by-product of a very fluid situation present at both mainline AA and the AA Eagle WO's which will become less fluid by the end of 2016 where major changes will alter the flow rate to a more steady, but ultimately slower process then present, at least for those at Envoy under the PPA. Clearly, there are not enough new-hires to meet such a flow strictly from the Eagle WO's and that component of this equation is only likely to become worse.

TIFWIW, but my comments on this forum are simply one persons opinion. I don't think the flow to AA from any of the WO's will "disappear". Envoy certainly won't be gone in a year as there would no way to replace that flying. In fact, it won't be gone in several years for the same reason. They presently cover too much flying to Comair the place that soon.

One scenario to consider might be that one or more of the WO's become subject to a merger or acquisition, either among themselves or involving a non-owned carrier. That would tend to increase flow time due to dilution of flow for present pilots to allow for new pilots to be included. To create a special group of pilots within a pilot group would be too destabilizing IMO, and agreement would be sought (and certainly obtained) to form a new paradigm for future flow. Parker has proved you either play ball his way or be pushed off the field. Other things might be offered to make it more palatable to those who feel they got the shaft. In fact, this scenario occurred in the past with Business Express Airlines. AMR bought them after the Letter 3 flow was executed and then it was subsequently merged into Eagle. Those BizEx pilots took flow slots based on their SLI position which caused heartburn among some legacy Eagle pilots who got pushed further back in line because of it.

Another scenario would keep the WO's separate and the growth of the 2 small ones combined with the contraction by Envoy would result in 3 approximately equal carriers. This too has strong potential to slow the flow at Envoy as it would also be destabilizing to run 1 of the 3 WO's with twice the flow of the other two equal sized carriers. It would likely result in expensive shifting of assets to pinch-hit for others just as Envoy is doing now because temporarily it has the resources to do that. There are multiple scenarios that have the potential to slow the flow at Envoy and thus any projection is simply just as much a guess as it was in 1997.

Yet another scenario might have either the combined WO's or perhaps just Envoy spun off to the shareholders, renamed and considered a "new entrant carrier" as per the APA CBA who then could operate E-190 series aircraft (including transfer of the present 20 from AA) to upwards of 150 aircraft or so (perhaps mixed in with E-175's as well, including the newer higher MGW version). Of course, since under that scenario this operation would likely take a lot of AA flying back again (S-80 domestic and mixed Caribbean/Mexico type stuff), it just could mean little to no flow to AA for awhile as mainline contraction approximates both the rate of retirement and flying transfer to this carrier. It would be a nice end run around APA scope and be quite a formidable competitor against Delta using 717's and 100-seaters at mainline wages or UAL in the same situation. Even SWA couldn't likely match the head-to-head costs of such an operation. I think it would be a big money-maker for the executives and shareholders as well. 150 planes and 1500 pilots isn't destruction of AA mainline, but makes a nice little addition to Parker's competitive arsenal and if the APA squawked, he'd say what he always says, "the contract allows for it and they are just following the contract". Heck, the APA agreed to multiple outsourcing scenarios in the first place.

The last consideration wouldn't be good for flows for a period of time and a logjam might occur due to a new period of AA mainline stagnation, but also other pilots might be more tempted to go to such a new carrier that still has future flow possibilities and fly E-190's, especially if their regional is collapsing. Not sure what the present Envoy CBA says about pay for such aircraft, but previously if no negotiations resulted in a rate, it would go to arbitration and you can be sure an arbitrator would consider this carrier in line with what new upstart carriers could pay and not what legacies pay. I'd expect a $10/hour bump in rates. The senior guys at Envoy would fall all over themselves to do it, for sure. Will this scenario occur ?

Who knows, but you can be sure Parker & Co. have to be considering their options on long term competitive moves and they play their cards close, bluff like crazy and have help in selecting future strategies from very expensive pro's. Personally, I wouldn't even put any money on this table (legacy AA-the future make-up of WO's and the flow-thru) as the ability read that table is presently impossible as there are too many cards left in the deck and the dealer cheats like hell. :cool:

You keep mentioning the THREE WOs, but until Piedmont actually flies a 145, you might as well consider them caput in a few years. Hell, they can't even get a training program together.

I mention THREE WO's because there ARE three WO's at this time, yes ?

What happens in the future regarding consolidation is part of one of the possible scenarios. If they did go "caput", it would be stupid to throw away hundreds of pilots in a shortage heading toward a bone-dry drought, so in that case it would be them that would be the acquired in an "acquisition". Perhaps there will be two future WO's each the same size with PSA acquiring PDT ?

The possibilities are numerous, thus the flow suggestions by Any of the WO managements are just that, suggestions.