IMO, the unprecedented stagnation that occurred in the airline industry due to the Age 65 rule won't ever happen again unless there is a complete collapse of the US economy in which the airline industry will be the least of our concern.

Due to recent trends in the industry, I wouldn't recommend XJT if you're looking to get in and out quickly as possible. A new hire today a XJT will likely have a 5-6 year upgrade at best. Too many senior pilots, too many 50 seaters, and a ton of uncertainty.

I recommend going to a regional that has little to no exposure to 50 seat market and is growing. Any pilot furloughed 3 years ago at ASA that went to GoJet is a lineholding Captain on the CRJ700 holding weekends off making 70k. Furloughed pilots that returned to ASA are currently barely line holding FOs on the CRJ700 flying weekends for 45k if you work hard.

Mesa is a great choice. Likely 2 year or less upgrade. Compass also

 

Why feed the mesa troll? Its a terrible place to work. Compass/Skywest is solo much better.

 

If a quick upgrade is what you seek, then a pilot didn't have to be furloughed to go to GoJet at that time. I am sure that GoJet would've welcomed you with open arms. You can still make the move to Mesa Trip. There must be a reason why you are still sticking it out here.

 

I was giving advice to newcomers to the regional game, not veteran FOs 6 years in. If I was a newcomer I wouldn't touch XJT with a 10 ft pole.

 

When you say that about XJT is it because you think there won't be anything to replace the phased out 200's when it happens? or a vastly changed contract in the near future? And upgrading would be nice for the experience and bigger paycheck, but I've read several post about guys getting hired as FO's so I'm not going to chase the upgrade. I've read several occurrences where it can come back to haunt ya. Btw sorry I know I'm probably beating a dead horse but I'm a first generation pilot just looking for a little guidance from somebody on the inside. lol

 

Dude, your advice is unconventional and makes sense. It takes courage to say something that goes against what the majority of people here think. I've got to give you credit where it's due, but there was no stagnation due to the age 65 rule, and there was absolutely and positively a collapse of the US economy. The worst is yet to come.

I couldn't disagree more about the state of the economy and what's happening. The stabilization period we think we are experiencing is only the last of the private wealth changing hands a few last times before it leaves the country for good to places where things are produced, and the economy has an engine and fuel. We're running on the battery here.

 

I'm afraid this needs a little fleshing out.

 

There will be large regional aircraft to replace most of the 50 seaters but it won't be 1 for 1 so overall fleet wise XJT will shrink. Attrition is about to pick up which will help movement in the near term but there is a ton of uncertainly with 50 seaters coming off contract and the Delta rate reset in 2015/2016 timeframe.

I understand the not chasing upgrade advice but understand most giving that advice were scarred by the unprecedented pseudo 5 year seat lock handed down by the Age 65 rule. If your plan is to get in and out of the regionals as quickly as possible, there are much better options than XJT. If upgrade is not an immediate concern then XJT is a great place to hang your hat for a while, as the FO yearly raises continue well past year 4. Just for perspective I've been at XJT 6 years and I'm 400 numbers away from upgrade.

You're correct there are several occurrences where chasing upgrade burned folks. But there are also a ton of occurrences where it worked out. Many pilots rode the 04/05 Mesa gravy train to fast upgrades and mainline jobs 3-5 years after being hired.

My advice is just one perspective. Gather as much advice/info as can, then make a decision based on what's best for your QOL needs and career goals. Good luck!

 

One thing you dont mention though is the vacuum of little to no hiring between 2008 and late 2010. Once late 2007 hires upgrade, it will drop significantly. ERJ side didn't hire anybody all of 2008 to early 2011. Your doom and gloom points are valid but you have to admit the only clear picture of anything in the airline industry doesnt happen until way after any decisions have been made.

 

You need to go back and read the SCOPE sections of the Delta and United contract. Delta will have 125 50 seaters total in 2 years. That means that even if Pinnacle parks all 50 seaters there will be a good bunch of 50 seaters parked at other places. Also Delta only has 30 airplanes left without a home after that Delta will be maxed out on SCOPE.

United has already awarded 70 large RJs and I believe the Q400's count as well but I am not 100% certain so that means that Untied already has 100 76 seaters under contract with the regionals, they are approaching the time where they must park a whole lot of 50 seaters with not many 76 seaters coming in. SKW already stated that INC will park 250+ airplanes due to mainline SCOPE in the next two years. People are blinded by the recent airframes awards as the SCOPE clauses are not triggered just yet.

AA and US Airways will likely see a SCOPE clause similar to that of United and Delta. Someone just posted a Mesa PDF that does a comparison of contracts at the regionals and there are others floating around that compare SCOPE clauses at mainlines, I suggest people become familiar with these because you are being whipsawed against each other and sadly must pilots are not familiar with their own contracts.