My how times have changed. Someone recommending GoJet

i was thinking it, but you said it.

If you want to make GoJet your second regional, I hope you choose better when you are picking your third regional.

Be smart, there are much better choices than GoJet.

I was simply stating that at this juncture G7 would offer better career progression than xjt.I don't work at G7 but if I had to choose right now between the two it would be G7.

The most important thing is driving to work. The second most important is the contract, just in case you get stuck somewhere inadvertently. Majors hire FO's. They know what has happened to the industry. I could never tell someone to work at G7 over XJT, Envoy, Endeavor, or Skywest unless they were going to DRIVE to work.

Driving to work is great,but I'd rather commute to a job with better career progression than to be a 9 or 10 year regional fo.Everyone is in a different situation,I get it so to each his own. That's just my opinion, but you know what opinions are like......and everybody has one.

I commute from Orlando to JFK as an FO for Endeavor and I couldn't be happier. Pay is good, fast upgrades, solid career progression, great pilot group and great QOL. Commuting's easy if you're smart about it. There's no perfect choice. This industry is so fluid that no matter what airline you work for things will change that were impossible to predict.

The future if XJT is to always be a "1-2 year extension " airline. And i bet ASA follows the sam path as there Delta contract expires. SkyWest is doing the same thing. (Except for the 175's). So reality is you will live the rest of your career thinking 2 years out is the end of it at XJT...

Have you guys heard anything about endeavor coming to ATL to fly your -200s?

ExpressJet
 

Skywest 175s CPAs (United and Alaska) are for 12 years.

Thats what i said.. see (..). Yes. Most of OO's other flying is short term 5 years or less.. XJT/ASA will fall into that category... XJT living 2 years at a time. I bet they get more $$$ for the short term ones. But use the steady 175 long term contracts to settle investors..

The CPA's are for short term because the airlines taking the 50 seat jets are still ramping up to take over the planes. The parking schedule is about 2 - 3 planes a month and will continue until SkyWest has all the 50 seat planes removed under the XJT and the skywest names.

They are adding the profitable larger RJ's under the skywest name. It was in a public SEC filing a few years back if you want to go dig it out about the plans for the 50 seat fleets, but somehow some XJT pilots still have their head in the sand and think they will end up with something bigger at some point.

Yeah, I missed that on my first read. Although, the rest of their flying is not all short term (2 years or less). Their pro-rate flying, by the nature of that flying, are one to three months by individual aircraft. But for example, their DAL flying is good through 2022, their AA 700 flying (of which they are adding a whole bunch more) is good through 2020.

If they could get profitable long term deals for XJT, they would do that instead of one and two year deals. Mainline wants dual class RJs for the foreseeable future so they agree to those deals. It's just that Inc is putting all those aircraft at Skywest exclusively. It has nothing to do with anything other than they rather have Skywest operate those aircraft.

This is really simple…

INC is just optimizing their profitability.

XJT hasn’t been profitable for a long time and still isn’t based on the last INC earnings call. So They try to discontinue unprofitable flying. This is no different from the SkyWest side where all the UA 700 go away mostly because they are just not very profitable.

Once those aircraft EMB145 or CRJ 700 come of contract it is really about managing the tail risk of the lease financing - a place where many of the CRJ 200 already are. Ideally, they match any contract extension against the residual lease timeline which tends to be 2-3 years. And that is exactly what you see. After that it is all gravy if they get extended – or INC returns the plane, adjusts the work force via attrition and goes home happy.

So they are going for shorter term opportunities that also happen to be priced at a premium. Again, no difference between XJT and SKYW. A lot of the 50 seater flying at SKYW is short-term as well. I don't think UA is thrilled about this approach but that’s why they are propping up C5. Presumably they are willing and able to operate at lower price than INC wants to do either under XJT or SKYW. Note that a lot of the "new" SKYW flying is not with UA but AA....

Personally, I believe the 50 seaters will be here for a lot longer than everyone wants to make us believe. So these 2-3 deals will continue to roll barring any major economic downturn.

As for new dual class cabin flying, it simply comes down to unit cost. Pilot productivity is higher at SKYW than XJT and as a result unit cost are a lower (PBS vs. hard line with vacation touching and I am sure a host of other things). So the 175 stuff goes there – very basic economics really.

I agree with you. But your only looking at the pilot aspect.. MX at XJT is very unproductive. And another big hurdle is the E145 product. Its the oddball of the fleet. And dont say its the same as the 175. Engines for example can tell you a huge tale.. GE =175 and CRJ fleet.. huge savings..

True. I only spoke to the pilot aspect.

I honestly, I don't know much about XJT MX - how efficient or inefficient they are. But I am pretty sure that the XJT fleet is large enough to have an efficient MX program. Minimum efficient scale is around 20-25 airframes for most airliners. You will still have some scale effects after that but you enter an area of diminishing marginal returns.

Once again the ASA side fails to get mentioned. We have PBS. We dont have vacation touching. We just continue to get lumped in with XJT and ground down to nothing.

There (mx) contract has some things that are like the pilot contract. Not advantageous to managment... yes 100 airplanes is a big enough size to be efficient, but there 100 airplanes partners dont want.. i would ask why ASA/XJT lists are not combined.. its been longer then most majors time wise to combine them... XJT is a great place to work.. but time to move on..

One little problem with your details. UA owns the 145's. UA owns a lot (almost half) of C5. SkyWest made the statement a couple of years ago they were getting out of the 50 seat market.

SkyWest chose to give the gifted people the larger jets that are replacing the 145s and it appears they will shut down the unionized portion of their companies.

Yes I am only talking about the L-XJT side for those whinny asa guys.

Please show us where Skywest said that! They've actually stated the opposite quite frequently.

I don't think SKYW ever made the statement to get out of the 50 seat market - at least not as far as I can recall or find.

The fact that UA owns all the 145 amplifies the problem for XJET. The only lever for INC is labor arbitrage and operational leverage.

They have no upside in owning / financing the equipment which they are extremely savvy about and drives quite a bit of upside on the SKYW side. Given the unfavorable cost structure at XJET leaves even less room to turn operations around then.

Where did they state the opposite of that? And what was the actual statement that you are referring to? Are we getting more planes, because I must have missed that notice on the company web site.

^^^^^

Skywest has got the boot to ASA/XJT's throat. It is going to be a slow wind down over the next few years. As Skywest continues to hire and staff, and L-ASA/XJT struggles with manning, the writing is on the wall.

Super senior, no movement (multi year FO's still on reserve, 13 year captains still on reserve), and no chance of realistically upgrading in the next 8+ years. No new metal flowing to L-ASA/XJT side as that is going to Skywest (the more profitable side). Oh yeah, and as an added bonus L-ASA picked up more LGA flying - yeeeaaaayyy. So what. DTW is going to Skywest. I am sure that pretty soon Skywest will open an ATL base as well. When that happens you'll know the death blow has been delivered to L-ASA. They're still flying ratted out -200/-700/-900 while Skywest has all the new metal flowing (and flying) their way. Contract, yeah its OK, but who cares about how good a contract you have when you're getting the blood slowly let out of you.

At one time it was a good place to be. But business is business. And Skywest is in the business of making money. L-ASA/XJT side is not. Skywest owns them and will slowly choke them off and get that flying eventually. Skywest can staff, and am very confident CC has a plan to make it so.

Previous post has a great point about letting the blood out. Every regional except XJeT is on here promoting hiring and attending FAPA. Nothing for xjet.

I agree. I don't think there is a long-term future for XJET. INC is using them opportunistically to make money where they can but there is no long-term vision for or commitment to XJET.

I understand why long-time folks continue to hold but it baffles me that they can find any new hires at all.

There is no tail risk with the 145s. And it's not Skywest calling the shots in short term deals with these 50 seaters. For example, if UAL wanted a long term deal (>2years) that Inc can make a profit from, of course they would sign that deal. Also, UAL has given long term deals for these same 145s to TSA and Commutair. Keep in mind that Inc has negotiated and renegotiated this money losing CPA three separate times and it's still unprofitable. It's UAL who has Inc over the barrel, and along with them the employees who have done nothing wrong to deserve what's happening.

UAL has said they are planning on having less than 100 fifty seat regional jets by 2019. With 36 of the 145s now at TSA (along with the dozen or so they already have) and 40 in the process of being transferred to Commutair, I don't see how that leaves any 50 seat jets for Skywest or XJT to operate for UAL, especially since UAL has tail risk on those 145s to at least 2020.

Lastly, the line bidding and vacation touching as not as lucrative as being portrayed relative to ASA's PBS. But it is true that pilot costs are higher than Skywest. So it makes sense that they put any and all CRJ and 175 flying at Skywest.

It's obvious Inc likes the employees to be separate.

I think we are arriving at the same place. INC puts assets where they can be most productive and that isn't XJET unfortunately for them. They truly have the short end of the stick but you cannot really blame INC for the dynamics either even though I am sure it doesn't feel that great at XJET.

I think you are correct in the sense that INC has renegotiated the UA contract multiple times - and it still isn't great. But again, we are in the same spot. once the contract is up INC will pull out or only sign a profitable extension. If long term deals were profitable, I am sure INC will go after them. But INC has also figured out that the ad-hoc stuff that arises when other regionals cannot cover it is even more profitable and that is there MO right now... also on the SKYW side.

50 seaters at UA... I know what has been announced and yet I only believe it when I see it. Their plans change almost monthly. And with Kirby in there I am sure the regional lift will get a whole different level of attention. Time will tell. But I don't believe that the 50 seaters will go anywhere barring any catastrophic event that results in a downturn.

Technically, Commutair is adding 40 ERJ's to the fleet and replacing 20~ dash's with additional 145's. That total ERJ 145 number would be ~60 at Commutair.

I am not going to go back and dig it up for you, but the latest Q3 call states:
It also states specifically about the 145's

Sounds like they are getting parked as fast as possible. Notice that the number of A/C can't all be moved at once so there is the possible extensions until they are all moved out from under the XJT umbrella.

You should also note that the great news that was on the XJT website about the extensions does not sound as concrete as XJT management makes it sound. The SEC filings have to be truthful while the company employee propaganda can all be lies.

Just in case you want the link so you can read the thing yourself:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...160930x10q.htm

Yeah I noticed that too. Coincidentally I can't find that extension update anywhere on the co website or in my messages. I think they pulled it like it was never said. The filing doesn't make an extension sound concrete. I emailed Terry for clarification. Either they are lying to us or lying to shareholders.

I doubt they would lie to the SEC. There would be fines possible.

Click on "older" and search for "extension"

forgot to add. It was never a my message. Only the above posted statement on the company employee web site.

Ken,
Are you ignoring this question? Did the check airmen get something that the rest of us did not get? Or are you just blowing smoke?

I see the SEC Q3 filing that just came out and it appears to say the same thing about closing down that everyone else is preaching. Where is this magical info that you seem to have that says anything different than the closing date of 2017?

My take.. UA didn't want 100 ac droping offline all at once.. so the are doing a 1 year draw down.. there is a sneaky reason they didn't disclose any terms of the extension, other then it "covers" 100 aircraft..

I hadn't seen that. Do you have a reference or link to that news?


Yeah, same place. Just wanted to add some color to it. I bring up the CPA negotiations because it's convenient for Inc to say that they need to remove unprofitable aircraft when it was them who made it unprofitable to begin with. If they want to make XJT profitable, they need to give XJT profitable aircraft to operate. But they rather put those aircraft where they make a larger margin because of costs. And the only people who suffer are the XJT employees.

As for 50 seaters, UAL is trying to catch up to DAL. And DAL is going down to at least 125 fifty seat jets. UAL had a press release that was filed with the SEC that states they want to have less than 100 fifty seaters by 2019. Maybe they'll put out a press release changing their mind but I doubt it.

Commutair does not really publish anything in writing. Try to look for press releases and I am sure you will only find a handful. The company is a very close little family that is expanding very rapidly.

I remember their press release announcing the 40 145s and the CPP. It didn't say anything about 20 additional 145s. Are you with Commutair?

I'm now at the point of deciding which regional to go with. I'm a short drive from Atlanta so ExpressJet is very attractive from a commuting standpoint. Talking to the recruiter it sounds like getting an Atlanta domicile within 6 months is reasonably probability. This makes XJT very attractive from a standpoint of QOL but everything I read on this and some other forums is predicting doom and gloom for XJT.

Granted I'll admit I've really only been closely looking at the airlines for the last 6 months so I'm still trying to get a feel for this segment of aviation.

What I see in most predictions is SkyWest slowly shutting XJT down by the end of 2017. I realize this is all speculation and a guessing game but XJT seems to be putting a lot of effort into recruiting, surely they have a more optimistic outlook on the future of the company. From what I see I think the majors are going to be really ramping up their hiring starting in 2017. Anychance some of the senior guys at XJT will be moving on and decreasing the upgrade times? If Skywest really does close down XJT surely they'll put a domicile in ATL. Is there anychance XJT pilots will have any sort of priority hiring for SkyWest? Surely they won't just cut that many trained pilots when they also seem to be looking for staff as well.

I've been flying corporate for a number of years and the airlines are looking pretty attractive from the standpoint of benefits and salary. I'm taking a financial hit going to the regionals now but even a second year first officer at most of the major airlines is making as much as the director / chief pilot of most small flight departments.

It's a damn tough decision that I'm hoping will pay off in the end.

Any thoughts and input is appreciated.

FD,

This opinion is from an ex-Xjetter, take it for what its worth...

I don't think SKYW will be shuttering XJT by 2017, on either side.

There are two sides to XJT. L-ASA, which flies the CRJ, and L-XJT that flies the ERJ. This blurb is on L-ASA. ATL is L-ASA. L-ASA also has bases in DTW (for now) and DFW. L-ASA recently got a bunch of LGA flying. I don't think they will open a base there, but we do TDY a bunch of people up there every week. L-ASA is shutting down its maintenance base in DTW. That's a big deal. We had quite a bit of DTW flying (see base above), but that is slowly being taken over by SKYW. We paired down our DTW flying when we were "awarded" the LGA flying (not a good omen BTW). Over the year or so we have also seen our total awarded flying decrease on the Delta side (can't speak to the L-XJT as I didn't fly for them). Our flying seems to be going to SKYW and Endeavor (they can staff, L-ASA can't).

Now, back to the shuttering issue. There are many factors involved, but the common denominator is SKYW, being XJT owner, makes business decisions based on profitability. L-ASA can't staff, unlike SKYW, so with the positive manning, SKYW can handle more flying, and they get it - and they generate more profit for INC. Not to mention they are adding new aircraft. It is a nexus that is positive. L-ASA is struggling to staff, losing flying and is not getting any new metal. A nexus as well, but in the negative direction. SKYW can't shutter L-ASA/L-XJT in a year. There's simply too much lift to staff in a short period of time. So SKYW has to keep L-ASA/XJT around for as long as it takes for them to amp up staffing. Not sure about who owns L-ASA/XJT jets, that might be part of the equation as well. Perhaps someone with that knowledge can chime in here. But as you can see, SKYW can slowly wind down L-ASA/XJT as they continue to ramp up manning and airframes until they reach a favorable cross over point. It is at that cross over that I believe SKYW will begin to aggressively shutter L-ASA/XJT. This is just my opinion.

If you decide to enter the regional world, IMHO you should look elsewhere than XJT. You won't upgrade. You will be on reserve for a long time. If you were hired today, you will spend 18-24 months or longer on reserve. Those times will only increase as the staffing and stagnant seniority list drive that time frame.

The "senior" folks....many are there for the duration. It is a very senior pilot group. There are a few that leave, but the majority of movement out is coming from the midlevel FO group. Since there is little to no movement off the top, and hiring is not occurring at sufficient rates to stave off attrition, the seniority list is stagnated. Refer back to the unfavorable nexus I mentioned.

Where to look, well, that is something you need to decide. I certainly don't want to discourage you, L-ASA has a phenomenal training department and a great pilot corps with a very good PWA. Unfortunately at this point in time, they are stuck between a rock and hard place.

This is a fickle industry, today's gem is tomorrows dog. But depending on your time horizon, you may wish to consider going elsewhere. Again, just my opinion.

"Challenges". Lol.