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Old 05-05-2021 | 12:55 AM
  #111  
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Originally Posted by kronan

Investment RISK is not shifted solely to the Individual, if it was, then there'd be no Floor and No Hurdle and we'd simply be buying Shares in our Pension Trust similar to a mutual fund or EFT.

The pilot assumes almost all of the investment risk, which is far more than the pilot has now. The Company dumps ALL of the investment risk up until the point the Retirement Fund performs so poorly that the stabilization fund is depleted. The only limits on the pilot' investment risk are numbers to be negotiated. The floor protects the upside, and the hurdle limits the upside.

If the plan works as designed, The Company will have ZERO investment risk. The pilot will be the only party with investment risk.


Originally Posted by kronan

But, again, Sorry TonyC, a PSPP style modification is NOT a Defined Contribution Plan...it is a Defined Benefit Plan which will pay out benefits for a lifetime. Not just til you're individual pot of money runs out.

"Individual pot of money [that] runs out" has not been used to describe the Variable Benefit Plan. Another straw man.

Nobody said it wouldn't pay out benefits for a lifetime. Another straw man.

The Variable Benefit Plan cannot be compared to a traditional Defined Benefit Plan. At best it can be described as a Hybrid Plan. Anybody with a smartphone and an ounce of Google-foo can find numerous descriptions of the "new" plan concept that has been suggested for failing Defined Benefit plans that combines features of a Defined Benefit Plan and a Defined Contribution Plan.

What The Company puts in is an amount of money every year proportional to the employee's annual salary, up to the IRS Defined Contribution Compensation Limit. That amount of money, whatever it is, is the last The Company ever has to worry about the pilot's eventual retirement benefit. It may go up, or it may go down, and The Company doesn't care. The Benefit the pilot receives upon retirement for each year's salary will VARY depending on how the Retirement Fund performed in the market. The shares he "accumulated" each year will be multiplied by the value of a share that year, and that will determine the lifelong Retirement Benefit the pilot will receive each year. The fact that the amount is a fixed amount then does not make it a Defined Benefit plan.

This video has only received 2,267 views. It's a pity, because this is Greg Reardon of Cheiron explaining how the Variable Benefit Plan works. He's the guy who started using the term pancakes. I BEG you all to watch this video, and I have it cued here right before the most important part: https://youtu.be/LvjGtv6POFM?t=1119





Originally Posted by kronan

Company Contributions to our Pension Trust has never been discussed\announced as far as I can recall.
2% of Pensionable Earnings was the proposed "pancake" value for annual calculations.

The amount of cash The Company must contribute to the fund to support the 2% "Floor Accrual Rate" is a tiny detail that would have to be negotiated. In the first year of the example used in the above-linked video, the pilot accrues a retirement benefit of $5,007. How much money in the fund is needed to match that liability? Oh, wait, $5,007 is not the liability, really, because that number can go up or down depending on the performance of the fund. The only real liability is the floor, and even that is supported by the stabilization fund. So, if the plan functions as advertised, The Company gets a discount on every pancake. Plenty of details for our "experts" to negotiate.

Originally Posted by kronan

580 shares is a Year 1 calculation only, ...

Where'd you come up with 580?

Originally Posted by kronan

I'm not sure why we'd agree to any Floor Percentage less than 2%, But what if we went to 1.9% and tied the Calculation limit to twice the DB limit, which would be a huge, huge improvement (and equally as hugely unlikely IMO) or tie it to WB Capt pay.

We can't tie the calculation to twice the DB limit because the IRS has set the rules for how the calculations are done. The limit is the IRS DEFINED CONTRIBUTION Compensation limit because that's the law. Reference the above-linked video at 25:36.


Originally Posted by kronan

Or negotiate a 2.1% floor?

All the details (apart from the IRS rules) are negotiable.

The Final Average Earnings Cap is also negotiable.

Originally Posted by kronan

What happens to our B plan if the IRS DC limit is lowered? Oh wait, we've already got protective language in our CBA should that happen. (Think it also protects us if the DB limit is ever lowered as well)


CBA Section 28 RETIREMENT (PENSION BENEFITS)

Paragraph E. Federal Express Corporation Pilot Non-Qualified Plans

2. In the event the compensation limit of Code § 401(a)(17) and/or the
annual addition limit of Code § 415(c) is decreased legislatively, the
Federal Express Corporation PRSP Non-Qualified Plan for Pilots
(“PRSP Non-Qualified Plan”) shall be established.

§ 401(a)(17) of the IRS code refers to the annual compensation limit for DEFINED CONTRIBUTION plans

§ 415(c) of the IRS code refers to the Limitation for DEFINED CONTRIBUTION plans

So, No, we don't have a CBA provision to establish a non-qualified plan in the event the IRS lowers the DEFINED BENEFIT limit. If you could stick to the facts instead of what you "think" it is, it might be less confusing.


Originally Posted by kronan

Every year does count. Having a young family and choosing to work only 500 hours is a personal choice. It is a choice that has a huge impact on your family's eventual B-plan value. It is a choice that has a huge potential impact on Disability Compensation, should-God forbid-our young family go on disability. (Pretty easy to live a great life on 500 hours, not quite as much fun on 250 hours)
Again, the NC listened to those very valid concerns and added another Benefit formula to the PSPP proposal. Benefits would be the highest of Market Returns, Floor Calculation, and no worse than a value created by our current A plan formula.

Every year counts in different ways for different plan types. If all we have are two defined contribution plans, like our current "B" Plan and the proposed Variable Benefit Plan, then every Credit Hour of every year counts towards improving the retirement benefit and the "B" Plan balance.

Under our current "A" Plan, a traditional Defined Benefit Plan, every year counts as a Year of Service, and that equates to 2% of the pilot's "High Five" Final Average Earnings. Maybe it's a young family, or maybe it's an aging parent, or maybe it's a family member with a major illness that causes the pilot to pay more attention to his home life than his flying gig. Maybe it's just a desire to remain senior in a lower-paying seat to improve his quality of life. Regardless of the reason, the pilot gets to choose to work less and still get 2% Years of Service credit under our "A" Plan. Under the Variable Benefit Plan, he won't have that choice.




Originally Posted by kronan

Mil Leave. USERRA requires FedEx to compute Retirement Benefits as if you were actually working. My expectation would be a PSPP year equivalent to 1000CHs times pay rate. (Similar to what I would expect should someone go out on Disability-but that was never explicitly discussed)

Your expectation ...

To Be Negotiated.



Originally Posted by kronan

What levels would "break" a PSPP style Pension. I do recall hearing that our PSPP style pension was stress-tested over various historical eras without breaking.
What has broken Pensions in the past is overly optimistic investment return predictions resulting in no required Pension contributions. FedEx has been very realistic with predicted returns on our Pension Trust and has used leverage to add assets to our Pension Trust even when they haven't been required to do so.
PSPP design has a fixed contribution year by year. I have no idea what percentage that was, when the market imploded last year I posted a model of hypothetical 30% down turns year by year by year. Even with that extreme, still works out because the initial draw from our Pension Trust will be very limited (roughly 120-150 people retire each year)
This might sound odd, but a lot of times after a huge bear market subsequent years have outsized returns as well.
The future could always be different. But in that different future....how does that economic collapse impact on Traditional A plans?

Fixed contribution. That's right.

How does that economic collapse impact on Traditional "A" plans? That's The Company's problem, because they bear ALL of the investment risk.

Oh, and those highly-compensated executives still have a personal vested interest in the the success or failure of the fund since they're in it too.




Originally Posted by kronan

In that hypothetical future, it's a land of tough choices. Pension Benefits have been negotiated lower to prevent outright termination of a plan.

Not when a Company wasn't going through a bankruptcy. I'm sure you know bankruptcy rules have changed to make it much more difficult for companies to use it as a tool to unload debt and walk away scot free. Delta used bankruptcy to do just that right before the bankruptcy laws changed because they knew they wouldn't be able to do it after the change.


Originally Posted by kronan

"—- (this is only $600 more “guaranteed” by floor vs current plan)"
The PSPP is only a modest improvement over the status quo for those closest to retirement. (Of which I will be one should it be incorporated into our next TA, and if that TA passes)
As proposed, it really only stops the inflationary bleeding that impacts our A plan each year.

The Variable Benefit will also be subject to inflation. Our "A" Plan benefit has not been hurt by inflation, it has been hurt by our failure to raise the FAE CAP at the same rate as we have raised hourly pay rates. A pilot close to retirement may not see ANY improvement from the PSPP over the current "A" plan with the current FAE Cap, but EVERYONE will see a SUBSTANTIAL improvement over the "status quo" by raising the FAE Cap.

Ask anybody nearing retirement what their ACTUAL High Five (not limited by $260,000) is today. If they have 25 years of service, divide that High Five by 2, and that's what they should get in retirement in return for their years of hard work making this Company not only possible, but fabulously successful. THAT's what they deserve, not some "modest improvement" over $130,000.






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Old 05-05-2021 | 10:16 AM
  #112  
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Excellent rebuttals Tony.

Having viewed the just-released Contract 21 Openers, I see now why kronan is so adamant in insisting the PSPP (pancake plan) is a Defined Benefit plan....our openers call for improvements to our Defined Benefit plan. The veil of secrecy in negotiations is thus maintained because if they believe (or pretend to believe) the PSPP is a DB plan, they then can claim to have delivered on their promise to "improve our DB plan."

So this is the "Talking Point" kronan is running with from the play called in the huddle...."it's a DB Plan and we're negotiating to improve it". Of course we won't know they're negotiating for pancakes until they spring it on us in the form of a Tentative Agreement. Clever attempt but these tea leaves are just too easy to read. I think I'll be more surprised if they actually negotiate for real improvements to our EXISTING DB Plan.

Pancakes are DOA. This will prove to have been a colossal waste of time and resources when any TA containing PSPP is voted down.

P.S. I really like the video that goes along with the Openers! Kudos to the folks who put that together!
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Old 05-05-2021 | 11:11 AM
  #113  
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Originally Posted by JB130
Excellent rebuttals Tony.

Having viewed the just-released Contract 21 Openers, I see now why kronan is so adamant in insisting the PSPP (pancake plan) is a Defined Benefit plan....our openers call for improvements to our Defined Benefit plan. The veil of secrecy in negotiations is thus maintained because if they believe (or pretend to believe) the PSPP is a DB plan, they then can claim to have delivered on their promise to "improve our DB plan."

So this is the "Talking Point" kronan is running with from the play called in the huddle...."it's a DB Plan and we're negotiating to improve it". Of course we won't know they're negotiating for pancakes until they spring it on us in the form of a Tentative Agreement. Clever attempt but these tea leaves are just too easy to read. I think I'll be more surprised if they actually negotiate for real improvements to our EXISTING DB Plan.

Pancakes are DOA. This will prove to have been a colossal waste of time and resources when any TA containing PSPP is voted down.

P.S. I really like the video that goes along with the Openers! Kudos to the folks who put that together!
My thoughts exactly. Looks like the first TÁ is a waste of time. Guess the real negotiations start in May 2022
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Old 05-05-2021 | 12:01 PM
  #114  
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It’s been a few years now that the NC chair and his ‘Pancake Posse’ have been trying to sell this VB plan to the pilot group. I cannot believe the train is still going. Looks like the TA will be our only opportunity to stop this. What a shame.
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Old 05-05-2021 | 12:06 PM
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Notice in the video the forecast compensation limit based on the forecast IRS DC limit. The experts forecast that the limit in 2020 would be $290K when in fact it was $285K. They forecast the limits to increase from there to $295K and then $305K. In actuality, the limit went to $290K in 2021. We don't know what it will increase to in 2022 yet, but history has shown that it is more likely that the limit will be $295K, or stay $290K. It may increase to as high as $300K, but probably won't based on current history. So, the experts have the compensation limits off by $5000 currently and off by as much as $15000 next year. This was their conservative model and they have us being able to earn more than we can. This video was from early 2018, yet they overestimated the 2020 and 2021 earnings limit. So much for being overly conservative with their predictions.
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Old 05-05-2021 | 03:08 PM
  #116  
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Originally Posted by pinseeker

Notice in the video the forecast compensation limit based on the forecast IRS DC limit. The experts forecast that the limit in 2020 would be $290K when in fact it was $285K. They forecast the limits to increase from there to $295K and then $305K. In actuality, the limit went to $290K in 2021. We don't know what it will increase to in 2022 yet, but history has shown that it is more likely that the limit will be $295K, or stay $290K. It may increase to as high as $300K, but probably won't based on current history. So, the experts have the compensation limits off by $5000 currently and off by as much as $15000 next year. This was their conservative model and they have us being able to earn more than we can. This video was from early 2018, yet they overestimated the 2020 and 2021 earnings limit. So much for being overly conservative with their predictions.

Excellent observation, but ...

They also use very optimistic numbers to predict our annual salary increases, but ...

Regardless of how positive they are with their predictions of pay rates and IRS caps, the most important numbers to look at are the Final Salary and the Retirement Benefit. If the Retirement Benefit does not represent 50% of the active pilot's High Five, the plan does not represent an improvement over our original "A" Plan.

For example, in the above-linked video (around 10:45), a pilot who works from Age 25 to Age 65 should be pulling in $959,358 in annual salary (based on those optimistic predictions, but that's OK), but even after participating in the pancake plan for 40 years, his Retirement Benefit is only $357,959 per year. Now, they brag that that number is a 175% improvement over the current "A" Plan limit of $130,000, but they don't mention that it's only 37% of the active pilot salary!

Just for reference, a wide-body Captain retiring today with 25 years of service and a High-Five equal to 1000 times his current pay rate will receive a retirement benefit of $130,000, which is 38% of that High Five.

Maybe somebody can explain to me how THAT is an improvement.






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Old 05-06-2021 | 01:21 AM
  #117  
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I’ll bite. I’m as anti pancake as most on here, but their future 37% is significantly more than the current $130k at that future date 25 years from now if you assume a zero improvement line in the sand. That would be about 13.5%.

I’m sure that’s about as accurate as all their other assumptions.
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Old 05-06-2021 | 02:56 AM
  #118  
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Originally Posted by gatorhater

I’ll bite. I’m as anti pancake as most on here, but their future 37% is significantly more than the current $130k at that future date 25 years from now if you assume a zero improvement line in the sand. That would be about 13.5%.

I’m sure that’s about as accurate as all their other assumptions.

I refuse to accept that assumption.






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Old 05-06-2021 | 03:27 AM
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Originally Posted by JB130

Having viewed the just-released Contract 21 Openers, I see now why kronan is so adamant in insisting the PSPP (pancake plan) is a Defined Benefit plan....our openers call for improvements to our Defined Benefit plan. The veil of secrecy in negotiations is thus maintained because if they believe (or pretend to believe) the PSPP is a DB plan, they then can claim to have delivered on their promise to "improve our DB plan."

So this is the "Talking Point" kronan is running with from the play called in the huddle...."it's a DB Plan and we're negotiating to improve it". Of course we won't know they're negotiating for pancakes until they spring it on us in the form of a Tentative Agreement. Clever attempt but these tea leaves are just too easy to read. I think I'll be more surprised if they actually negotiate for real improvements to our EXISTING DB Plan.

Forgive me for splitting hairs, but the Openers don't call for improving "OUR" Defined Benefit plan. Careful wording says our retirement "package" will "... [use] both Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution plans" and create a "sustainable balance between Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution plans." There is no hint that they'll fight to fix OUR Defined Benefit Plan.

And it is EXACTLY how I predicted it would be.
Originally Posted by TonyC

Here we go. The NEW false narrative. I saw it coming in the MEC Chairman's April 23rd message.

First, he used the "try to confuse them" tactic I spoke of in my Council 26 Message - Unpublished. He begins by referring to "the multiple formulas used to compute [the] defined benefit." As I explained in my message, 2 of the formulas involve additional multipliers from the 1999 and 2006 CBAs which applied to specific age and longevity groups. The 2006 multipliers don't apply to anyone who hasn't retired already, and I'll be surprised if anybody to whom the the 1999 multipliers applied will not have retired by the time we get a new CBA. Then there's a small group remaining of former Flying Tiger pilots -- they know who they are, and they may also be gone before we get a new CBA. That leaves the basic formula, and the Flat Dollar benefit. In no case would the Flat Dollar benefit reduce the benefit calculated with the basic formula: 2% times Years of Service times High Five. Sorry, Dave, it's not that complicated that you can scare us away from it.

Then, he closes by saying, "The Contract 2021 Opener will address members’ concerns by providing a secure and durable retirement package that improves retirement income for all pilots using both defined benefit and defined contribution plans." You might think that means that the MEC along with the Negotiating Committee and the Officers have officially abandoned their pursuit of a variable benefit plan. They've finally decided to listen to the hue and cry of the membership and are now committed to fixing our Defined Benefit Plan. Not so fast.

All they're doing is trying to convince us that the Variable Benefit Plan is actually a Defined Benefit Plan. IT. IS. NOT.


So, back to Kronan's initial assertion: The PSPP is a pension plan. True, In layman's terms, and leaning on Webster for a definition, the PSPP does indeed provide "a fixed sum paid regularly to a person." The hitch is that the sum is determined by variables, some of which the pilot has no way to control. Thus, the term variable.

A pilot beginning a career under such a variable plan will not know when he can progress from one seat to a higher paying seat, he will not know what the BLGs will be from month to month or how much extra flying will be available to him. He also won't know how the stock market, or more specifically the retirement fund, will perform from year to year. So, he won't know what his income will be in any year, or what the value of "pancakes" will be that year, so he won't know how many pancakes he will accrue in any year. Most importantly, he won't know the value of all of his pancakes until the year he retires, so he won't know what that "sum paid regularly" will be until he has already begun his last year of employment. Under the "fly 'til you die or one more peak" bonus plan we have now for pilots who announce their retirement in advance in order to receive an extra bonus, he will have already announced his retirement before he will know what his retirement benefit will be. At that point, if he changes his mind, he'll have to forfeit the bonus.

That's not what a defined benefit is.

A Defined Benefit is when a newhire pilot knows that he can retire at age 60 and after 25 years of service with 50% of his High Five.

Let's take a different look at the logic.

A cat is a feline. A feline is a mammal.

A dog is a canine. A canine is a mammal.

To say that because a dog is a mammal, it is also a feline is absurd. Logic doesn't work that way.

Our "A" Plan is a Defined Benefit plan. A Defined Benefit plan is a pension plan.

The PSPP is a Variable Benefit plan. A Variable Benefit plan is a pension plan.

To say that because a PSPP is a pension plan, it is also a Defined Benefit plan is absurd.


Next they'll try to tell us it's the ACCRUAL that is variable, not the benefit, so it's not a Variable Benefit plan, it's a Variable Accrual plan, which is a Defined Benefit plan.

Yes, they think we are that stupid.

We can't wait until there's a TA we will reject. That's a waste of time, and a disservice to everyone who must retire before then. There needs to be a house cleaning.


So, I'll say it again. Ask your Block Reps if this so-called Defined Benefit is the Variable Benefit Plan with a newer set of sheep's clothing. They dressed it up once with the word Stabilized, and now they're trying to convince us it's Defined. If they tell you we're trying to improve our current "A" Plan, thank them and support them. If they say it's a "more robust" version of the PSPP, recall them. If they won't tell you what it means, recall them.

Talk is cheap. We need action. We can't waste time waiting for a TA we can't stomach.






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Old 05-06-2021 | 03:41 AM
  #120  
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Originally Posted by TonyC

So, I'll say it again. Ask your Block Reps if this so-called Defined Benefit is the Variable Benefit Plan with a newer set of sheep's clothing. They dressed it up once with the word Stabilized, and now they're trying to convince us it's Defined. If they tell you we're trying to improve our current "A" Plan, thank them and support them. If they say it's a "more robust" version of the PSPP, recall them. If they won't tell you what it means, recall them.

Talk is cheap. We need action. We can't waste time waiting for a TA we can't stomach.

.
I asked mine. He won't tell me if pancakes are in the proposal and that the document to the pilots was left vague on purpose so as not to tie the negotiating committee's hands.

Can't have the verbiage "IMPROVE THE A PLAN " and then not deliver once again.

To me it is just another example of ALPA telling us they know best so just be quiet and color.
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