N9840G

I am new to aviation and wonder how the 1500 rule will effect the airline industry. Will there be a pilot shortage? Is there holes in the regulations that give some lee-way to the airlines. With the wages at present levels who is going to put that much money in flight training to become a pilot.

thanks

Thedude

No, there will not be a pilot shortage.
The de-facto standard for hiring had been at least 1500 hrs, at least up until the last few years. The only shortage is of people willing to work at horrendously low wages. In a few years we may see a raise in entry level jobs.
Next time do a search, this topic has been covered ad-nauseum.

airline NooB

N9840G,
I appologize for my colleges curt reply. While the topic has been addressed often, and recently, it is easy to overlook the fact that if we dissalow questions that are previously asked and answered, we will seriously limit the scope of this forum.
That having been said, while I agree with TheDude that I doubt there will be a pilot shortage, I must respectfully disagree on why I have such an opinion.
MY OPINION WILL NOT BE POPULAR. But it is, nonetheless, my prediction of the shape of things to come. Take it and all other opinions with a grain of salt and form your own.

It is my humble opinion....pure speculattion...that there will be no pilot shortage...because there is a abundant supply of eager, hungry, optomistic, experienced, qualified pilots ready to fill ALL of the projected vacancies...and then some. All it takes is a signature.....a flip of the regulatory switch...a thumbs up....and the cockpit staffing problem miraculaously goes away. Cuz, you see....the only thing keeping that OCEAN (not just a pool) of candidates from filling the seat....is the fact that the card in their pocket doesnt say FAA. Thats it.

We like to think that we (as an industry) will be able to force the market to pay higher wages...improve out quality of life...make it all better for us (by making the customer pay more...unlikely due to too much competition. or by making the corporation pocket less...also unlikely because like it or not, the airline does not exists for the liesure of the employees. it exists to make a profit, and it can best do so by targeting customer satisfaction WHILE remembering the need to have employees and management working together (NON-adversarial) to accomplish that goal. This isnt a business theory...it works really REALLY well and there are a few SHINING examples of this methodology in every industry. Just as there are some less then stellar examples of businesses holding onto...older, less effective ideologies. This is simply commercial darwinism. Those who do not evolve, or who cannot due to layers and layers of extranious obligations or entitlements....will become extinct. More flexible, more durable, more PRO-active (less RE-active) businesses IN ANY INDUSTRY...will prevail.

We have done a (darn) good job of discouraging future pilots. We ***** about the pay. We ***** about the conditions. We ***** about seniority. We ***** about the food...the uniforms...the declining Flight Attendant aesthetics...the aircraft..the airports...the security measures...the ineffective unions...the dasterdly management....we ***** and ***** and ***** and *****. We complain so darn much that AFTER making the investment into training, I seriously question if it is an industry I want anything to do with. If I hadnt already taken the dive, before I saw these VOLUMES of negativity about the work, there is no way in (heck) I'd have even considered this path.

Todays 17-20 year olds are far more tech savy than we are. And while we got our dreams from hanging around hangars and tarmacs....they get their insight from FORUMS and BLOGS. They will have THIS as their primary insight into the industry. And we will have allowed our dissatisfaction and cynicism to deter our "reinforcements" from even trying.

Which leaves the industry in a bit of a pickle....what are we gonna do...

Resistance is futile.... the easiest and most economical answer.... Allow them darn foreigners to take a bigger portion of the pie. And rather than snivel about how miserable they are with $50k on their W-2....and having to stay with 4 others in their crash pads.....them darn foreigners will celebrate the vast improvement over their national standard.

The FAA and congress will make noise about "protecting american jobs"...for a while. But consumer groups will become louder and louder and eventually, someone will change the regulation (its not even a formal law) and open the gates. And then the consumer will be happy...which will make the politicians happy....which gets the heat off of the regulatory agency.

And as the passengers depart the plane....the Captain will greet them with a big bright smile and say: "Thank you, come again. Next week, sale on slushies."

Some say it'll NEVER happen. We're "protected"! Ever heard of a work visa? It works both ways. All the industry has to do is say "there arent enough workers to fill the vacancies" and then the state department and Federal Trade Commission....make things happen.

All because we have priced ourselves out of yet another industry and complained our way out of domestic career.

At least, thats my best guess on where this is headed.

I could asily be wrong. But for now, I'm working on a patent for a headset....that'll fit over a turban. (just kidding...mostly)

I am Absolutely NOT advocating that anyone should paint a rosey picture, give false hope, blow smoke, or otherwise attempt to lure the unsuspecting victim into a career trap. But I do think it would probably serve us all well if we would stop pouting about not getting some of the things we want, be thoughtful of getting some of the things we DO want......and try to take into consideration some of the things we DONT get...that we DONT want.