hear, hear! :-))

Thx for the feed back

I was at the info session and they made it seem like EK was going to double in size over the next five to ten years. If the 350 is replacing some or all of the 330 and 340 aircraft then I guess this is not the case. Can you tell me (best guess) the growth forecast for EK. I am not as young as these other guuys and I need to get all the info I can,
Thx

I basically advise guys coming to EK today to make the decision based on a 7 to 10 year upgrade time frame. Currently pilots are upgrading at 4-5 years depending on which fleet they are on. That is for pilots who were hired 4-5 years ago. It is actually forecast to go down slightly over the next year. Growth and hiring numbers actually change every week. It could be that someone hired today does upgrade in 5 years, but I wouldn't make the decision based on that because you'd only be setting yourself up for possible disapppointment.

Attrition is the big wild card. It currently runs at 3% or less, but it could go higher. As I often say here, 10-15 years is kind of a limit on the expat life. The urge to go home increases more and more as you get to that time of service. Of the 2800 pilots at EK, less than 500 have hit the 10 year mark so you've got a lot of guys who will be hitting that point in the next few years. Most are already looking for ways to get home more.

Then there are the DECs that were hired starting 7 years ago. Many were in their early to mid-fifties. They'll be retiring over the next 10 years as well.



Typhoonpilot

Thx for the info. I am interested in fleet growth plans. I am under the impression that some or all of the 350's are replacement aircraft. Is this correct? If so how many are additional aircraft that will generate growth?
Thx

Nobody can answer that because not even Emirates senior management knows. Aircraft that were supposed to retire are being kept longer. Over time the entire A330/340 fleet will go away. So will the RR powered B777s. What the time frame is for that though changes on a weekly basis.

There are 70 firm orders for the A350 plus 50 options. The total for the A330/340 fleet is 45 aircraft. The RR powered B777s make up another 21 aircraft. So if the first 70 A350s replace all those airplanes there is still a net gain.

If Emirates takes the options on the A350 then it gets even more positive. If they take all the A380s on order then it gets more and more positive. Then there are the remaining B777 orders yet to be delivered. Perhaps there will be further orders in the future.

When I joined the airline that target was 100 aircraft total. They had just over 50 then. The number keeps getting higher and higher. At some point a limit will be reached, but it's just a guess as to what that number will be.



Typhoonpilot

Really? I heard that the 380 is going to take over Sao Paulo. Man, you EK 777 drivers are soooo jealous of the 380....bigger, faster and the company's pride and joy, that you try to lash out and find fault on every level. Plus, the stats you quote can easily be skewed either way to show the 380 is better. It may not be easy on the eyes, but it makes the company money..lots of it.

How many PREMIUM pax does the 380 carry again...oh yeah, 90, and the T7, just 50...so don't worry typhoon, those 40 extra PREMIUM pax fares will more than make up for the extra gas!! Plus, the passengers (those who supply the revenue), prefer the 380 to the T7.

Fatbus is correct, the 380 will soon be doing US west coast, so you guys can kiss those flights goodbye as well.

Our boss, TC, was recently quoted as saying that EK would buy 120 380's but they are constrained by space at DXB....quite a ringing endorsement I would say, especially knowing how ruthless EK is when it comes to cutting costs and making lots of money. You jilted 777 drivers better get used to losing more of your cushy flights to the 380.

And, when the 350's start coming you will be doing all the crappy night India turnarounds and Africa flights.

And I will have a huuuuge grin on my face!

Enjoy!

Wow, Big Shiny Jet Syndrome from somebody already flying a big shiny jet? I thought that was reserved for low-timers. A330, A380, 777...who cares! Give me the one with the best pay, best schedules, and most days off.

From a career benefiting point of view my first choice would be the A330. Loads of A330 and A320 contract jobs out there at the moment if I wanted to move. But I understand the A330 roster is pretty lousy at Emirates so no thanks. Next choice would be the 777. There a few opportunities for 777 or Boeing rated guys out there. Last choice would be the A380. There are currently 0 other opportunities to fly an A380 if you get sick of Emirates.

From a personal preference point of view I'd take the 777.

I think I am a bit better placed to know what the current plans are. You are stating the old plans. They change every week by the way. In a year we'll know who had the more accurate information.

I don't get emotional about this, just stating the facts for this week's plan.



TP

Wow. Too long out in the hot sun...:cool:

Yes, indeed, we will see.

Nope, just stating facts...

TP is accurate.

The post was just a wind up! Big SJS! A little kid that hasn't grew up as we speak. :D

TP,

Why do you say that the 10-15 yr is the limit for the expat life? Do people get fed up with the airline, with Dubai, or is it other reasons like kids are grown up and leaving the house to go to college back in the home country?

Ahhhh...sounds like you're in denial.

Enjoy them TRV's at 0330!

EK folks, do you know when the 748s are coming? Is EK gonna fly those or give them to Atlas or some other carrier to operate them?

That would be the plane to get on if Emirates operates them.......no crazy pax, no gossiping FAs, no ULR flights.

You sound like you went on to the 380 for same reasons some guys buy a Hummer or a Corvette...

...something having to do with compensating for something... :rolleyes:

S.I.B., What they want to do with the 380, and what its capabilities are and the infrastructures to support it around the world are horses of a different color.

Sort of like the introduction of the MD11 in the mid 80s. It was sold on one aspect of performance and didn't live up to it for almost ten years. Fuel bladders had to be added to the forward cargo compartment to reach the destinations it was designed to serve with the cargo load promised missing. Reference twelve years later, it does meet its initial selling points. But technology with other aircraft passed it by and its relegated primarily with a few exceptions to cargo around the world.

Could this be the future of the A380? Who knows, but as much as anything, the airports and their infrastructures are very limiting at the present time for the aircraft. With world economy in the present state, what "states" are going to invest huge amounts of money into their airports to support ONE aircraft when others will serve it almost as well. How many gates in the large airports will be given up to support the aircraft to the detriment of other gates and space?

LHR has already put EK on notice to get their on time performance up to par because it cannot hold 380 capable gates open when others are waiting for the few 380 capable gates.

Nice pax a/c and enjoy riding on it myself. Guys flying it seem to like it. But the world is not fully ready for Miss Piggy. Maybe one day and maybe one day the performance promised for the aircraft will come to be realized. Today, it ain't there. You think those in charge would hold it at bay for the ULRs if it were fully capable today. I think not.

So SIB, try not to get so emotionally attached to a piece of machinery. Years ago I learned not to find oneself on new jets and small categories. Your options are limited and companies take years to determine the best use of said equiment. I will hate to see the tears when you move from the rhs on the 380 to upgrade to the 330. How will you handle it?

Duly noted. Thanks for your slightly less cynical and sarcastic reply.

Calling us jealous and jilted wasn't cynical? You're a piece of work...

Shiekh, baby, tone it down or this thread will wind up in the Regionals Forum!!

Thanks for the feed back. I know it is a best guess. I have the sim on the 11th in ATL. Hopefully it will go well.
Back to days off how many are the URL guys averaging or is mngmt filling the lines so everybody gets 14 off a month.
Thx

From prune:

A difference of 24 J Class tickets @ AED 33400 return. One sector AED 16700 X 24 = AED 400,800.00.
60 Tonne difference is 48 000 liters. (SG of 0.8)
Surely Jet A1 doesn't cost AED 8.35 per liter.

Now there's a difference of 2 First Class seats granted they are probably not used, but all the same that's another AED 45430.00

Oh yes,then the cattle in the lower deck. That would be an extra 92 @ AED 6570.00 return. Thats a cool AED 302,220.00 one way.

All tolled up this is Aed 748,450.00. I'm very glad that some of my very well informed colleagues are not running this airline, as they would have you believe that we should not spend an extra 60 tonnes of gas to make that money. This weeks IATA average fuel price is $1015.50/metric tonne which would be $48,744.00 (AED179,037.70). FBO prices at $2.00/ltr would be $96000.00. (AED352 609.93)

At IATA prices (excluding hedging) the 380 makes about AED 568000.00 more money.
At FBO prices, this is reduced to AED395,000.00.

Today's flight from JFK incidentally took 8/75/377.
No difference first class.
22 Difference Bussiness (excluding 1 staff) = AED367,400.00
70 Difference economy = AED 229,950.00

TOTAL AED 597350.00

My figures are straight off the Emirates web site, I'm sure they are probably out by a bit. I'm willing to bet though that the 380 is not the money wasting beast it is made out to be.

Ahh, but how much freight did that A380 full of passengers and their baggage carry?

The answer is probably less than 5 tonnes, while the similar B777 could carry 20 tonnes. 15 tonnes more freight revenue is also a lot of money. At 10 dirhams a kilo that would be 150,000 dirhams, at 20 dirhams a kilo it would be 300,000 dirhams. Not sure what EK charges for freight, but I bet 20 dirhams per kilo would be on the low side. This while burning much less fuel.



Typhoonpilot

TP I finished the sim in ATL Michele said see you in the sand box. I am assuming that is a good thing. Can you tell me if URL guys are flying 12 days a month or is mngmnt filling there line in with turns two bring them up to 16 work days a month.
thx

Turtle, Can you tell me if everybody is 14 days off. I have heard mngmnt is filling lines with turns to bring them to 14 days off a month. even the url guys.?
thx

Congrats on getting through the sim.

What's URL?

Do you mean ULR ( ultra long haul )? There really isn't such a thing as a ULR guy. One can only get 2 ULR trips per month from the bid which means they will fly some other trips, often turn arounds, to fill the month.

There is no way anybody can ever give you a look at a normal roster. They just don't exist. You might look at some top bid month lines and see some really nice rosters. Four months later you look at the same guys bottom bid month roster and it's pretty poor.


Typhoonpilot

Hey Carolinajet.... I'm going over there Oct4/5 when or are you going over?

Hey Machspeed, I'm heading over there 4th/5th as well. Where are you flying out of?

Johng723, SFO. Is there a way to PM here? If not, do you have a ************* account?

Machspeed, I do have an account over there, same username

Not sure when I am going over still trying to get thedays off. Good luck

Thx. sounds like when you are at the top of the cycle the lines are pretty descent and when you are at the bottom they are not so great. But over all it sounds like everybody is working 16 to 20 days a month. Does this seem corect? Thx

SB. Is is true that you have to be back in Dubai 3 days before your trip starts if you have been on vacation Is this true even if these days are your days off?
Thx

Technically the company are supposed to roster two days off after a long leave so that you are acclimatised to Dubai for your next duty start. You only have to be back in order to have 3 local nights rest prior to a duty that requires you to be acclimatised. If the duty that you have after leave does not require you to be acclimatised then there is no requirement to be back until the duty starts.

The only flights that require one to be acclimatised are ULR flights and some of the longer nasty night turns to the Sub-Continent. If you have a Europe departure or some shorter trip after leave then there is no need to be back until the day prior, or even morning of said departure.




Typhoonpilot

Thx TP. Sounds like its Ok with the proper bidding technique. One last question. As far as taxes go does EK show the Villa and school money they pay you as taxable income or just as a benefit like medical covergae. In other words do you pay taxes on the money you recieve for the villa and private school?
Thx

Housing allowances are taxable after a housing exclusion as laid out in the tax code. Check the Form 2555 instructions and/or consult a tax professional about that.


Typhoonpilot

TP thx for getting back to me. Do you have to be a capt. to be in the training dept. I was a check airman at a previous airline. I enjoyed the work and would like to get back into that type of environemnt. Thx

Yes, you can work as a SFI (Synthetic Flight Instructor) as F/O.

But it's not really worth being an SFI as an FO. Basically, you could do it for one year, then if you do it any longer than that, you are delaying your upgrade. They will only give you 500 hours TOTAL credit towards your upgrade after you teach for 500 hours in the sim. (Basically one for one credit until you reach 500 hours sim instruction). After you reach 500 hours sim instruction, you receive zero credit for sim instructing. Depending on how much you actually fly the line, will be detrimental to your time requirements at Emirates (3000 EK time and if you're under 55T, it's 4000 EK time).