sunnfun

hear, hear! :-))

CarolinaJet

Thx for the feed back

I was at the info session and they made it seem like EK was going to double in size over the next five to ten years. If the 350 is replacing some or all of the 330 and 340 aircraft then I guess this is not the case. Can you tell me (best guess) the growth forecast for EK. I am not as young as these other guuys and I need to get all the info I can,
Thx

Typhoonpilot

I basically advise guys coming to EK today to make the decision based on a 7 to 10 year upgrade time frame. Currently pilots are upgrading at 4-5 years depending on which fleet they are on. That is for pilots who were hired 4-5 years ago. It is actually forecast to go down slightly over the next year. Growth and hiring numbers actually change every week. It could be that someone hired today does upgrade in 5 years, but I wouldn't make the decision based on that because you'd only be setting yourself up for possible disapppointment.

Attrition is the big wild card. It currently runs at 3% or less, but it could go higher. As I often say here, 10-15 years is kind of a limit on the expat life. The urge to go home increases more and more as you get to that time of service. Of the 2800 pilots at EK, less than 500 have hit the 10 year mark so you've got a lot of guys who will be hitting that point in the next few years. Most are already looking for ways to get home more.

Then there are the DECs that were hired starting 7 years ago. Many were in their early to mid-fifties. They'll be retiring over the next 10 years as well.



Typhoonpilot

CarolinaJet

Thx for the info. I am interested in fleet growth plans. I am under the impression that some or all of the 350's are replacement aircraft. Is this correct? If so how many are additional aircraft that will generate growth?
Thx

Typhoonpilot

Nobody can answer that because not even Emirates senior management knows. Aircraft that were supposed to retire are being kept longer. Over time the entire A330/340 fleet will go away. So will the RR powered B777s. What the time frame is for that though changes on a weekly basis.

There are 70 firm orders for the A350 plus 50 options. The total for the A330/340 fleet is 45 aircraft. The RR powered B777s make up another 21 aircraft. So if the first 70 A350s replace all those airplanes there is still a net gain.

If Emirates takes the options on the A350 then it gets even more positive. If they take all the A380s on order then it gets more and more positive. Then there are the remaining B777 orders yet to be delivered. Perhaps there will be further orders in the future.

When I joined the airline that target was 100 aircraft total. They had just over 50 then. The number keeps getting higher and higher. At some point a limit will be reached, but it's just a guess as to what that number will be.



Typhoonpilot

SheikhItBaby

Really? I heard that the 380 is going to take over Sao Paulo. Man, you EK 777 drivers are soooo jealous of the 380....bigger, faster and the company's pride and joy, that you try to lash out and find fault on every level. Plus, the stats you quote can easily be skewed either way to show the 380 is better. It may not be easy on the eyes, but it makes the company money..lots of it.

How many PREMIUM pax does the 380 carry again...oh yeah, 90, and the T7, just 50...so don't worry typhoon, those 40 extra PREMIUM pax fares will more than make up for the extra gas!! Plus, the passengers (those who supply the revenue), prefer the 380 to the T7.

Fatbus is correct, the 380 will soon be doing US west coast, so you guys can kiss those flights goodbye as well.

Our boss, TC, was recently quoted as saying that EK would buy 120 380's but they are constrained by space at DXB....quite a ringing endorsement I would say, especially knowing how ruthless EK is when it comes to cutting costs and making lots of money. You jilted 777 drivers better get used to losing more of your cushy flights to the 380.

And, when the 350's start coming you will be doing all the crappy night India turnarounds and Africa flights.

And I will have a huuuuge grin on my face!

Enjoy!

Controlled Rest

Wow, Big Shiny Jet Syndrome from somebody already flying a big shiny jet? I thought that was reserved for low-timers. A330, A380, 777...who cares! Give me the one with the best pay, best schedules, and most days off.

From a career benefiting point of view my first choice would be the A330. Loads of A330 and A320 contract jobs out there at the moment if I wanted to move. But I understand the A330 roster is pretty lousy at Emirates so no thanks. Next choice would be the 777. There a few opportunities for 777 or Boeing rated guys out there. Last choice would be the A380. There are currently 0 other opportunities to fly an A380 if you get sick of Emirates.

From a personal preference point of view I'd take the 777.

Typhoonpilot

I think I am a bit better placed to know what the current plans are. You are stating the old plans. They change every week by the way. In a year we'll know who had the more accurate information.

I don't get emotional about this, just stating the facts for this week's plan.



TP

Mink

Wow. Too long out in the hot sun...

SheikhItBaby

Yes, indeed, we will see.