With the US dollar declining.........
04-09-2008, 02:01 PM
#1
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With the US dollar declining.........
With the US dollar declining in value and with no end in sight, do you think foreign airlines are going to increase salaries to attract pilots? Or are there enough pilots taking those jobs? Are contracts better now?
04-09-2008, 02:39 PM
#3
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There is some talk in some circles about moving to Euros, and some contracts pay in currency other than the US dollar. Personally, yea the dollar is down and everybody is crying the blues at the moment, but the US economy has been very resilient in the past and I expect it will be the same in the future. So, I'd be a bit careful about going to Euros, when, frankly, the EU economy as a whole is not much better than the US, the bureaocracies in the EEC are killing many areas of trade such as agriculture, where in the US ag trade is up 20% year over, and will likely continue to do so. Your manufacturing is also well up, as are inbound tourists (I think 10% year over) so I wonder if the downturn will be, relatively, short lived. Also, many places with a strong dollar (like New Zealand) are that way mostly due to huge interest rates, which is not a great idea either.
Long and the short from a grass is always greener perspective, I'd just suck up the low dollar as a change will come sooner or later and your employer won't be so happy to change back.
And from what I have seen, yes, contracts are getting better; not only monetarily, but also with commutes.
Long and the short from a grass is always greener perspective, I'd just suck up the low dollar as a change will come sooner or later and your employer won't be so happy to change back.
And from what I have seen, yes, contracts are getting better; not only monetarily, but also with commutes.
04-09-2008, 02:44 PM
#4
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
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Posts: 701
Internationally their is no 'glut'.
Carriers like Skybus were only holding pilots who were going to go back to their main carrier anyway, and who are now likely to go to Emirates, who require a heap of drivers. Even the Oasis guy's will likely find work quite easily. So, when we are talking about 'contract' flying, as was the question, yes there are many jobs and yes the P&C is climbing.
Carriers like Skybus were only holding pilots who were going to go back to their main carrier anyway, and who are now likely to go to Emirates, who require a heap of drivers. Even the Oasis guy's will likely find work quite easily. So, when we are talking about 'contract' flying, as was the question, yes there are many jobs and yes the P&C is climbing.
04-11-2008, 02:22 AM
#5
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Posts: 146
Originally Posted by KoruPilot
but the US economy has been very resilient in the past and I expect it will be the same in the future.
Here's a recent CNN article that discusses the weakening $US:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/12/mark...pact/index.htm
Last edited by NZAV8R; 04-11-2008 at 02:29 AM.
04-11-2008, 03:00 AM
#6
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: Contract purgatory
Posts: 701
I'll stick to The Economist.
If I was buying oil contracts at $109 at the moment I would be very nervous. It amazes me how short peoples memories are some times. I understand that this price rise has held on for some time, and for nonsensical reasons (In MHO). Coming from oil country I have a bit of an understanding of how the flow of fuel through exploration to production to the pump works, and I know what the cost of production is in the sand in northern Alberta as I have lived there and visited the sites; it's about $15 dollars per barrel, not fifty as some in the petroleum business like to make out. But I'll try not to get into that. My base point is that the last time oil shot up this high it ended down at about $12 per barrel. I see no reason why, once all the BS clears up and people realize that they can get as much gas as they want, hence no shortage, and traders start to get nervous and short sell to cover their long contracts, the whole thing will come crashing down. In essence, the greed that is driving this will be the downfall of the greedy, not to sound to pontiff. But, until then the net result is that airline companies with poor business models (and often poor pilot wages) are failing; I wonder if this is not really a good thing in the long run. Just how much safety do people think they buy for their $10 ticket anyway?
As for the US economy, I hope I am right as well, but It's not just wishful thinking. Recently February cargo traffic outbound across the Atlantic was up 6% by month. That's pretty good. Visit a factory in the US (I did last week) and you'll hear directly about their offshore sales and current backlogs. It'll take a while for many manufacturers to feel safe enough to ramp up production I agree, but being safe is not a bad thing in the short term either. As long as the economy doesn't hit real, prolonged (more than three to four quarters?)recession, manufacturers will increase capacity, thus increasing jobs. Americans can thank globalization that their recent problems may not hurt as much as they could, and have, in the past. As for the week US dollar, that's what is helping them the most right now, so I wonder if it's a bad thing in the near term. Pilot contract wise yes, but again, diving into contracts in other currencies might not be the smartest thing in the long term, unless you are some kind of For-Ex genius. Of course the minute I buy into a foreign contract in Euros I can guarantee the Greenback will rally huge.
As for the credit crunch, well that really makes me angry. The banks loaned money to people who couldn't repay it back at the increased rates. . . ever. They acted like pushers with 'teaser' rates, zero down and loaning to bad credit history borrowers based on inflated prices. Of course the BNZ was kind enough to ramp up my loans, and made sure that I held huge % equity before they lent me any money, all the while sending my money over to the US banks to loan to people who were never going to be a good risk. But, how much and for how long has/will that hit the US economy? Likely not very long (again, in MHO).
Frankly, I'm more worried at the moment about the NZ economy than the US. What kind of production capacity do we have to save our buts once it all goes sideways? Or are we really going to continue to lay our hopes on tourists and cows? Helen gets in again mate and I'm leaving.
Anyway, kind of the wrong place for this discussion isn't it. . . sorry 'bout that all.
If I was buying oil contracts at $109 at the moment I would be very nervous. It amazes me how short peoples memories are some times. I understand that this price rise has held on for some time, and for nonsensical reasons (In MHO). Coming from oil country I have a bit of an understanding of how the flow of fuel through exploration to production to the pump works, and I know what the cost of production is in the sand in northern Alberta as I have lived there and visited the sites; it's about $15 dollars per barrel, not fifty as some in the petroleum business like to make out. But I'll try not to get into that. My base point is that the last time oil shot up this high it ended down at about $12 per barrel. I see no reason why, once all the BS clears up and people realize that they can get as much gas as they want, hence no shortage, and traders start to get nervous and short sell to cover their long contracts, the whole thing will come crashing down. In essence, the greed that is driving this will be the downfall of the greedy, not to sound to pontiff. But, until then the net result is that airline companies with poor business models (and often poor pilot wages) are failing; I wonder if this is not really a good thing in the long run. Just how much safety do people think they buy for their $10 ticket anyway?
As for the US economy, I hope I am right as well, but It's not just wishful thinking. Recently February cargo traffic outbound across the Atlantic was up 6% by month. That's pretty good. Visit a factory in the US (I did last week) and you'll hear directly about their offshore sales and current backlogs. It'll take a while for many manufacturers to feel safe enough to ramp up production I agree, but being safe is not a bad thing in the short term either. As long as the economy doesn't hit real, prolonged (more than three to four quarters?)recession, manufacturers will increase capacity, thus increasing jobs. Americans can thank globalization that their recent problems may not hurt as much as they could, and have, in the past. As for the week US dollar, that's what is helping them the most right now, so I wonder if it's a bad thing in the near term. Pilot contract wise yes, but again, diving into contracts in other currencies might not be the smartest thing in the long term, unless you are some kind of For-Ex genius. Of course the minute I buy into a foreign contract in Euros I can guarantee the Greenback will rally huge.
As for the credit crunch, well that really makes me angry. The banks loaned money to people who couldn't repay it back at the increased rates. . . ever. They acted like pushers with 'teaser' rates, zero down and loaning to bad credit history borrowers based on inflated prices. Of course the BNZ was kind enough to ramp up my loans, and made sure that I held huge % equity before they lent me any money, all the while sending my money over to the US banks to loan to people who were never going to be a good risk. But, how much and for how long has/will that hit the US economy? Likely not very long (again, in MHO).
Frankly, I'm more worried at the moment about the NZ economy than the US. What kind of production capacity do we have to save our buts once it all goes sideways? Or are we really going to continue to lay our hopes on tourists and cows? Helen gets in again mate and I'm leaving.
Anyway, kind of the wrong place for this discussion isn't it. . . sorry 'bout that all.
04-11-2008, 04:00 AM
#7
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Joined APC: Jan 2007
Posts: 610
The Demise of the Euro
From Forbes: http://www.forbes.com/opinions/forbe.../0421/034.html
The Demise of the Euro
Avi Tiomkin 04.21.08, 12:00 AM ET
Tensions between inflation-obsessed Germany and growth-hungry Latin countries will spell its end.
It is only a matter of time, probably less than three years, until the euro experiment meets its end. The financial crisis in the U.S. is hastening the process, as investors flee the dollar, pushing the euro to a price of $1.59. But it will not stay high for long. Countries like Spain and Italy will withdraw and return to their old currencies. Once that happens, get ready for the return of the deutsche mark and the French franc.
What will undo the euro: the mounting tension between the inflation-obsessed German bloc (including Austria, Luxembourg and the Netherlands) and the Latin bloc of France, Italy and Spain. The Germans, saddled with memories of the hyperinflation that brought the Nazi Party into power, remain singularly focused on fiscal and monetary discipline. Despite core inflation in the euro zone of only 2.4% and a slowing global economy, the Germans insist that the European Central Bank maintain a tight monetary policy. In direct opposition to Germany, the Latin bloc, joined by Ireland, wants the ECB to lower interest rates.
Spain's worsening real estate slump dramatically illustrates the problem faced by the Latin bloc. For years Spanish home building and buying outstripped that of Germany, Italy and France combined. Now that the boom has turned to bust, the Spanish central bank cannot lower interest rates. Nor can the treasury devalue the currency. Bound to the euro, Spain can only complain to the ECB, while watching its economy circle the drain.
European heads of state and the European business press are making their discontent public in stark language. "We cannot continue to cope with the autism of some bankers who do not understand that the priority is not fighting inflation, which is nonexistent, but fighting for more growth," declared French President Nicolas Sarkozy last year. In October, in response to German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck's comment that he "loves a strong euro," leading Italian business newspaper Il Sole ran a headline labeling the remark "a declaration of war." "Italy has lost the ability to grow," the Italian finance minister, himself one of the founding members of the ECB, admitted recently.
The euro has long had detractors, who question the viability of political and monetary union in Europe. Haunted by World War II, the generation of leaders that included Helmut Kohl and François Mitterrand was willing to give up sovereign powers and national interests to create a common currency. But with no shared language, customs, culture or political system, the euro zone has never existed except as a construct in the minds of bureaucrats and politicians.
Now, as the divisions increase, insiders are beginning to take a dim view of the prospects for continued monetary union. "We believe the euro will not survive in the long run in the absence of some kind of political support," the president of BusinessEurope, a pan-European business association, stated in early March.
Along with the steep selloff that will precede the disintegration of the high-flying euro, other markets will be shaken. Look for much higher interest rates for prospective euro deserters like Spain and Italy as spreads for benchmark German bonds widen.
What should investors do? Gradually start to hoard dollars and short the euro. Another strategy is to sell investments in Italy and Spain and buy German fixed-income assets.
The political situation in Europe is likely to accelerate the euro's demise. Now that the Spanish elections are over, politicians there no longer feel the need to remain silent about mounting economic woes. If, as Italian polls predict, Silvio Berlusconi becomes that country's prime minister, the man who criticized the euro as "a disaster" would join a common front ready to take action by the time Sarkozy's France assumes the European Union presidency this summer.
The tight-money Germans will not push to preserve the euro. A poll released at the end of 2007 by Dresdner Bank (other-otc: DRSDY.PK - news - people ) showed that 62% of Germans support reinstating the deutsche mark as the country's currency. It appears that their wish will come true.
The Demise of the Euro
Avi Tiomkin 04.21.08, 12:00 AM ET
Tensions between inflation-obsessed Germany and growth-hungry Latin countries will spell its end.
It is only a matter of time, probably less than three years, until the euro experiment meets its end. The financial crisis in the U.S. is hastening the process, as investors flee the dollar, pushing the euro to a price of $1.59. But it will not stay high for long. Countries like Spain and Italy will withdraw and return to their old currencies. Once that happens, get ready for the return of the deutsche mark and the French franc.
What will undo the euro: the mounting tension between the inflation-obsessed German bloc (including Austria, Luxembourg and the Netherlands) and the Latin bloc of France, Italy and Spain. The Germans, saddled with memories of the hyperinflation that brought the Nazi Party into power, remain singularly focused on fiscal and monetary discipline. Despite core inflation in the euro zone of only 2.4% and a slowing global economy, the Germans insist that the European Central Bank maintain a tight monetary policy. In direct opposition to Germany, the Latin bloc, joined by Ireland, wants the ECB to lower interest rates.
Spain's worsening real estate slump dramatically illustrates the problem faced by the Latin bloc. For years Spanish home building and buying outstripped that of Germany, Italy and France combined. Now that the boom has turned to bust, the Spanish central bank cannot lower interest rates. Nor can the treasury devalue the currency. Bound to the euro, Spain can only complain to the ECB, while watching its economy circle the drain.
European heads of state and the European business press are making their discontent public in stark language. "We cannot continue to cope with the autism of some bankers who do not understand that the priority is not fighting inflation, which is nonexistent, but fighting for more growth," declared French President Nicolas Sarkozy last year. In October, in response to German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck's comment that he "loves a strong euro," leading Italian business newspaper Il Sole ran a headline labeling the remark "a declaration of war." "Italy has lost the ability to grow," the Italian finance minister, himself one of the founding members of the ECB, admitted recently.
The euro has long had detractors, who question the viability of political and monetary union in Europe. Haunted by World War II, the generation of leaders that included Helmut Kohl and François Mitterrand was willing to give up sovereign powers and national interests to create a common currency. But with no shared language, customs, culture or political system, the euro zone has never existed except as a construct in the minds of bureaucrats and politicians.
Now, as the divisions increase, insiders are beginning to take a dim view of the prospects for continued monetary union. "We believe the euro will not survive in the long run in the absence of some kind of political support," the president of BusinessEurope, a pan-European business association, stated in early March.
Along with the steep selloff that will precede the disintegration of the high-flying euro, other markets will be shaken. Look for much higher interest rates for prospective euro deserters like Spain and Italy as spreads for benchmark German bonds widen.
What should investors do? Gradually start to hoard dollars and short the euro. Another strategy is to sell investments in Italy and Spain and buy German fixed-income assets.
The political situation in Europe is likely to accelerate the euro's demise. Now that the Spanish elections are over, politicians there no longer feel the need to remain silent about mounting economic woes. If, as Italian polls predict, Silvio Berlusconi becomes that country's prime minister, the man who criticized the euro as "a disaster" would join a common front ready to take action by the time Sarkozy's France assumes the European Union presidency this summer.
The tight-money Germans will not push to preserve the euro. A poll released at the end of 2007 by Dresdner Bank (other-otc: DRSDY.PK - news - people ) showed that 62% of Germans support reinstating the deutsche mark as the country's currency. It appears that their wish will come true.
04-11-2008, 11:57 AM
#8
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2005
Position: tri current
Posts: 1,485
Originally Posted by MDT06
With the US dollar declining in value and with no end in sight, do you think foreign airlines are going to increase salaries to attract pilots? Or are there enough pilots taking those jobs? Are contracts better now?
There is good and bad in currency fluctuations. Getting raises to USD denominated contracts to keep the Europeans happy while the dollar plunges is good if you are an American and most of your debt/expenses are in dollars. It gets bad if you are paid in dollars and the airline's currency starts to weaken. During the Asian Economic Crisis in 1997/98 I lost a job primarily for that reason. I was on a contract getting paid in dollars. When that country's currency devalued by over 20% the expats were deemed too expensive to keep.
Typhoonpilot
04-11-2008, 05:15 PM
#10
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2006
Posts: 146
Originally Posted by KoruPilot
I'll stick to The Economist.
If I was buying oil contracts at $109 at the moment I would be very nervous. It amazes me how short peoples memories are some times. I understand that this price rise has held on for some time, and for nonsensical reasons (In MHO). Coming from oil country I have a bit of an understanding of how the flow of fuel through exploration to production to the pump works, and I know what the cost of production is in the sand in northern Alberta as I have lived there and visited the sites; it's about $15 dollars per barrel, not fifty as some in the petroleum business like to make out. But I'll try not to get into that. My base point is that the last time oil shot up this high it ended down at about $12 per barrel. I see no reason why, once all the BS clears up and people realize that they can get as much gas as they want, hence no shortage, and traders start to get nervous and short sell to cover their long contracts, the whole thing will come crashing down. In essence, the greed that is driving this will be the downfall of the greedy, not to sound to pontiff. But, until then the net result is that airline companies with poor business models (and often poor pilot wages) are failing; I wonder if this is not really a good thing in the long run. Just how much safety do people think they buy for their $10 ticket anyway?
As for the US economy, I hope I am right as well, but It's not just wishful thinking. Recently February cargo traffic outbound across the Atlantic was up 6% by month. That's pretty good. Visit a factory in the US (I did last week) and you'll hear directly about their offshore sales and current backlogs. It'll take a while for many manufacturers to feel safe enough to ramp up production I agree, but being safe is not a bad thing in the short term either. As long as the economy doesn't hit real, prolonged (more than three to four quarters?)recession, manufacturers will increase capacity, thus increasing jobs. Americans can thank globalization that their recent problems may not hurt as much as they could, and have, in the past. As for the week US dollar, that's what is helping them the most right now, so I wonder if it's a bad thing in the near term. Pilot contract wise yes, but again, diving into contracts in other currencies might not be the smartest thing in the long term, unless you are some kind of For-Ex genius. Of course the minute I buy into a foreign contract in Euros I can guarantee the Greenback will rally huge.
As for the credit crunch, well that really makes me angry. The banks loaned money to people who couldn't repay it back at the increased rates. . . ever. They acted like pushers with 'teaser' rates, zero down and loaning to bad credit history borrowers based on inflated prices. Of course the BNZ was kind enough to ramp up my loans, and made sure that I held huge % equity before they lent me any money, all the while sending my money over to the US banks to loan to people who were never going to be a good risk. But, how much and for how long has/will that hit the US economy? Likely not very long (again, in MHO).
Frankly, I'm more worried at the moment about the NZ economy than the US. What kind of production capacity do we have to save our buts once it all goes sideways? Or are we really going to continue to lay our hopes on tourists and cows? Helen gets in again mate and I'm leaving.
Anyway, kind of the wrong place for this discussion isn't it. . . sorry 'bout that all.
If I was buying oil contracts at $109 at the moment I would be very nervous. It amazes me how short peoples memories are some times. I understand that this price rise has held on for some time, and for nonsensical reasons (In MHO). Coming from oil country I have a bit of an understanding of how the flow of fuel through exploration to production to the pump works, and I know what the cost of production is in the sand in northern Alberta as I have lived there and visited the sites; it's about $15 dollars per barrel, not fifty as some in the petroleum business like to make out. But I'll try not to get into that. My base point is that the last time oil shot up this high it ended down at about $12 per barrel. I see no reason why, once all the BS clears up and people realize that they can get as much gas as they want, hence no shortage, and traders start to get nervous and short sell to cover their long contracts, the whole thing will come crashing down. In essence, the greed that is driving this will be the downfall of the greedy, not to sound to pontiff. But, until then the net result is that airline companies with poor business models (and often poor pilot wages) are failing; I wonder if this is not really a good thing in the long run. Just how much safety do people think they buy for their $10 ticket anyway?
As for the US economy, I hope I am right as well, but It's not just wishful thinking. Recently February cargo traffic outbound across the Atlantic was up 6% by month. That's pretty good. Visit a factory in the US (I did last week) and you'll hear directly about their offshore sales and current backlogs. It'll take a while for many manufacturers to feel safe enough to ramp up production I agree, but being safe is not a bad thing in the short term either. As long as the economy doesn't hit real, prolonged (more than three to four quarters?)recession, manufacturers will increase capacity, thus increasing jobs. Americans can thank globalization that their recent problems may not hurt as much as they could, and have, in the past. As for the week US dollar, that's what is helping them the most right now, so I wonder if it's a bad thing in the near term. Pilot contract wise yes, but again, diving into contracts in other currencies might not be the smartest thing in the long term, unless you are some kind of For-Ex genius. Of course the minute I buy into a foreign contract in Euros I can guarantee the Greenback will rally huge.
As for the credit crunch, well that really makes me angry. The banks loaned money to people who couldn't repay it back at the increased rates. . . ever. They acted like pushers with 'teaser' rates, zero down and loaning to bad credit history borrowers based on inflated prices. Of course the BNZ was kind enough to ramp up my loans, and made sure that I held huge % equity before they lent me any money, all the while sending my money over to the US banks to loan to people who were never going to be a good risk. But, how much and for how long has/will that hit the US economy? Likely not very long (again, in MHO).
Frankly, I'm more worried at the moment about the NZ economy than the US. What kind of production capacity do we have to save our buts once it all goes sideways? Or are we really going to continue to lay our hopes on tourists and cows? Helen gets in again mate and I'm leaving.
Anyway, kind of the wrong place for this discussion isn't it. . . sorry 'bout that all.
Also, you might be interested in this global financial newsletter:
http://www.the-privateer.com/
One of my relatives over in Oz reckons that it supplies some pretty good info.
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