$140 is a not far around the corner my friend. The real question is how fast we get to $200. Do you understand how much fuel the developing nations are using? China and India soon will consume more fuel the the USA, and USA consumes 25% of the world consumption.

 

stbloc
Thanks for the crazy but I think he was being hypothetical. . . now back to the thread, yes.

T&C are slowly coming up but many advertisements include the total package in the monthly number, and some places can be very expensive to live in, so just be carefull.

Also, the A330 contract in Singapore for Jetstar is still below average and likely not to get better any time soon. A320 guys are taking the base to get themselves wide body time (I can't argue with the strategy, but it doesn't move thing's along any quicker).

Look. . . TP, TheDominican, CptJNS. . . these guy's have been doing the contract thing for a very long time and pretty much seen it all. My personal opinion; take a little dose of wisdom from the boy's. It does look like good times ahead indeed, but be carefull.

And best of luck to those who decide to join the contract world. It's a great life, but no for everybody.

 

Call me crazy but oil goes only up from here. I still believe opportunity will be around. Airlines will need to shift the models a bit to work under these conditions. I feel the shortage is here and its comming on strong. but you can't sit back and think we will be flying with fuel under a $100 for long. its supply and demand.

 

I've always been very curious about the elasticity in demand for air travel as it relates to price. Right now the domestic US market seems to be very dependant on low fares...lower in real dollars than the last 25 years. People will only book the lowest available fare, bypassing a fare $25 more. Yet they pay hundreds for hotels, rental cars, etc...and often air fare is a relatively small part of the overall travel expense. As fares go up, there is bound to be a smaller portion of the population that can or will pay the price with oil at 150-200 a barrel. Airplanes can get parked again, and crews furloughed.

There will always be some demand...some travel can not be put off or avoided. International travel or overseas travel favors air transportation.

The external factors that airlines have little control over will always be lurking in the shadows, and will trigger the cycles our industry is plagued with and known for.

As for us, our best protection is seniority.....let's hope that we can develop enough to hold on through the wild ride of a long career.

 

It's manipulated supply and demand! Oil does not follow the standard supply and demand model. If oil prices were based on world wide regional usage, China and India should be shouldering the highest prices. The rest of the world, having cut back on oil use, should not have to bear the higher costs. Winter is here in the U.S., summer driving is over yet we are paying higher prices for gasoline. Of course, we are starting to head back towards bigger vehicles again. Some folks will never learn. IMO

 

My airline just announced capt upgrades = to about 7% of the pilot force.

"If oil was priced on a regional basis..". We would be paying a CRAPLOAD more for oil, as we import about 40% of our oil (US).
However, with today's modern transportation system, it is easy to transport the oil from wherever to wherever, so it is globally priced, based on how much oil is produced in a set time period, and what the anticipate worldwide useage will be.

cliff
HSV

 

Then why are gas prices up here in the good ol USA? Useage is down! prices are up! The economy is in terrible shape and has been for 2-3 yrs now. How is it that oil prices are up? Like I said earlier, manipulated supply. Still IMO.

 

Hi!
cliff
MIA

 

Please stop this ridiculous pilot shortage talk. Its not here, not coming and there are plenty of highly qualified guys looking for decent jobs.

 

Not here and won't until they(airlines) start increasing salaries to attract individuals.