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Old 12-18-2018, 09:41 PM
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Default Do you think Frontier will merge with Spirit

I have heard this for some time. Do you think this could happen a merger with spirit and Frontier?
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Old 12-18-2018, 10:17 PM
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No. It's not coming anytime soon. You would have to convince the Spirit board of directors and Frankie it makes business sense. $$$$ Why should Spirit pay a premium for F9? That's at the core of the question. F9 isn't buying out Spirit, Frankie has his game plan and it's not a buy out from Spirit. I'd love to see the Valuation on F9. If it was good you would have seen the IPO by now. I have a sneaky feeling it's not good.
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Old 12-19-2018, 04:39 AM
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Originally Posted by Super EZ E View Post
No. It's not coming anytime soon. You would have to convince the Spirit board of directors and Frankie it makes business sense. $$$$ Why should Spirit pay a premium for F9? That's at the core of the question. F9 isn't buying out Spirit, Frankie has his game plan and it's not a buy out from Spirit. I'd love to see the Valuation on F9. If it was good you would have seen the IPO by now. I have a sneaky feeling it's not good.
If you feel their valuation isn't good then I think we should vote yes on the TA. Many NO voters on here claim Indigo has the highest profit margins in the industry. Thanks for your economic insight.
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Old 12-19-2018, 05:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Super EZ E View Post
No. It's not coming anytime soon. You would have to convince the Spirit board of directors and Frankie it makes business sense. $$$$ Why should Spirit pay a premium for F9? That's at the core of the question. F9 isn't buying out Spirit, Frankie has his game plan and it's not a buy out from Spirit. I'd love to see the Valuation on F9. If it was good you would have seen the IPO by now. I have a sneaky feeling it's not good.
I belive an acquisition is imminent. You say something about a premium on F9 then few sentences say later you'd love to see the valuation of F9. How can you say its buying them a premium when you don't even know the market cap/value of F9. The value is essentially what indigo can sell it for. He bought F9 basically for a song. His specialty is flipping distressed carries and selling for a profit. He's not a longterm owner. And when he DOES sell F9 it will be for a handsome profit. He's already making a stake in WOW. His plan is certainly in motion. Turn F9 into a nice profit, sell, and move on. That has alway been his MO. And it appears thats whats in motion now. To me anyways. On the flip side NK is sitting on nice cash stash, performance metrics have flipped and dare I say this place is actually running pretty damn good right now. A new CEO coming in, young guy who could run the ship for years to come, would be a good time to make a splash and join forces. Also the idea they'll make more during IPO is hogwash. as soon as franke goes public, he no longer has complete control of F9. Selling an airline as a private entity is waaaayyyy easier than as a public entity. selling a public company needs approval of shareholders, board members, so an and so forth. Not to mention there is no telling what the shares maybe worth when franke can actually sell his stake. if it IPOs at $25 a share it may pop to $35 but then in months when Franke can actually sell his shares it maybe $12 and he loses his shirt. who knows? Why would he take the risk. We are moving into a slowing economy. The dude is like 85 years old. He can sell F9 as a private company for hundreds of millions with much less hassle and be gone. Spirit in turn could finance a purchase in many different ways. Spirit could acquire a growing company with a big west coast presence we don't have, much easier while its still a private company. Not to mention the aircraft order that F9 has. those slots could be included in the sale. NK wants and needs more Aircraft. even if Franke took those slots with him, how is WIZZ air gonna staff 100 more planes? F9 is the logical slot for those airframes. Your TA is similar to ours with similar dates and rates. I just saw F9 is starting service back to BDL and BWI, which is fast growing market for us. I don't know, maybe I'm blinded by own idea. But Im almost convinced a marriage is in the works. Economies of scale simply dictate a combined airline could be a powerhouse in the years to come. Too many similarities and coincidences lately for me to ignore.. My guess is it will happen. And i for one think it would be a good thing. All F9 guys I've met are cool a** dudes. And we have a good group here. I think it could be good in the long run for all our careers.
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Old 12-19-2018, 05:37 AM
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No one knows. We can all make predictions, and they will all be worthless.

I personally don't see a merger anytime soon, but I sure didn't see Alaska buying Virgin coming.
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Old 12-19-2018, 06:11 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyGuy2002 View Post
I belive an acquisition is imminent. You say something about a premium on F9 then few sentences say later you'd love to see the valuation of F9. How can you say its buying them a premium when you don't even know the market cap/value of F9. The value is essentially what indigo can sell it for. He bought F9 basically for a song. His specialty is flipping distressed carries and selling for a profit. He's not a longterm owner. And when he DOES sell F9 it will be for a handsome profit. He's already making a stake in WOW. His plan is certainly in motion. Turn F9 into a nice profit, sell, and move on. That has alway been his MO. And it appears thats whats in motion now. To me anyways. On the flip side NK is sitting on nice cash stash, performance metrics have flipped and dare I say this place is actually running pretty damn good right now. A new CEO coming in, young guy who could run the ship for years to come, would be a good time to make a splash and join forces. Also the idea they'll make more during IPO is hogwash. as soon as franke goes public, he no longer has complete control of F9. Selling an airline as a private entity is waaaayyyy easier than as a public entity. selling a public company needs approval of shareholders, board members, so an and so forth. Not to mention there is no telling what the shares maybe worth when franke can actually sell his stake. if it IPOs at $25 a share it may pop to $35 but then in months when Franke can actually sell his shares it maybe $12 and he loses his shirt. who knows? Why would he take the risk. We are moving into a slowing economy. The dude is like 85 years old. He can sell F9 as a private company for hundreds of millions with much less hassle and be gone. Spirit in turn could finance a purchase in many different ways. Spirit could acquire a growing company with a big west coast presence we don't have, much easier while its still a private company. Not to mention the aircraft order that F9 has. those slots could be included in the sale. NK wants and needs more Aircraft. even if Franke took those slots with him, how is WIZZ air gonna staff 100 more planes? F9 is the logical slot for those airframes. Your TA is similar to ours with similar dates and rates. I just saw F9 is starting service back to BDL and BWI, which is fast growing market for us. I don't know, maybe I'm blinded by own idea. But Im almost convinced a marriage is in the works. Economies of scale simply dictate a combined airline could be a powerhouse in the years to come. Too many similarities and coincidences lately for me to ignore.. My guess is it will happen. And i for one think it would be a good thing. All F9 guys I've met are cool a** dudes. And we have a good group here. I think it could be good in the long run for all our careers.
By your logic AA/DL/UAL are going to merge because they have similar contracts and compete in the same markets. I would say the F9 TA is similar because they need to be competitive with the only other ULCC operating in their backyard.

An F9/NK merger would benefit everyone but the pilots. There is no benefit to either group to interlace two young seniority lists. If either airline were to add the equivalent of the other in airframes you want all of them going to new hires being added below you and not integrated with you. Merging either with either just adds more NB flying to more US cities which is of no benefit unless you place value on a Denver layover versus a Baltimore.

The last thing any NK or F9 pilot should be wishing for is a merger or a second fleet type.
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Old 12-19-2018, 06:11 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyGuy2002 View Post
I belive an acquisition is imminent. You say something about a premium on F9 then few sentences say later you'd love to see the valuation of F9. How can you say its buying them a premium when you don't even know the market cap/value of F9. The value is essentially what indigo can sell it for. He bought F9 basically for a song. His specialty is flipping distressed carries and selling for a profit. He's not a longterm owner. And when he DOES sell F9 it will be for a handsome profit. He's already making a stake in WOW. His plan is certainly in motion. Turn F9 into a nice profit, sell, and move on. That has alway been his MO. And it appears thats whats in motion now. To me anyways. On the flip side NK is sitting on nice cash stash, performance metrics have flipped and dare I say this place is actually running pretty damn good right now. A new CEO coming in, young guy who could run the ship for years to come, would be a good time to make a splash and join forces. Also the idea they'll make more during IPO is hogwash. as soon as franke goes public, he no longer has complete control of F9. Selling an airline as a private entity is waaaayyyy easier than as a public entity. selling a public company needs approval of shareholders, board members, so an and so forth. Not to mention there is no telling what the shares maybe worth when franke can actually sell his stake. if it IPOs at $25 a share it may pop to $35 but then in months when Franke can actually sell his shares it maybe $12 and he loses his shirt. who knows? Why would he take the risk. We are moving into a slowing economy. The dude is like 85 years old. He can sell F9 as a private company for hundreds of millions with much less hassle and be gone. Spirit in turn could finance a purchase in many different ways. Spirit could acquire a growing company with a big west coast presence we don't have, much easier while its still a private company. Not to mention the aircraft order that F9 has. those slots could be included in the sale. NK wants and needs more Aircraft. even if Franke took those slots with him, how is WIZZ air gonna staff 100 more planes? F9 is the logical slot for those airframes. Your TA is similar to ours with similar dates and rates. I just saw F9 is starting service back to BDL and BWI, which is fast growing market for us. I don't know, maybe I'm blinded by own idea. But Im almost convinced a marriage is in the works. Economies of scale simply dictate a combined airline could be a powerhouse in the years to come. Too many similarities and coincidences lately for me to ignore.. My guess is it will happen. And i for one think it would be a good thing. All F9 guys I've met are cool a** dudes. And we have a good group here. I think it could be good in the long run for all our careers.

Sold.

I hope, in the end, the airplanes are !!!YELLLOW!!!. Let the "good/old" Frontier R.I.P. and not continue with the Indigo abomination; the abomination for anyone other than Franke/Biffle, that is.
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Old 12-19-2018, 06:55 AM
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if we accept this TA, I hope we merge immediately. That way, we can get rid of our TA in favor of whatever comes out of the JCBA process - and none of our NC is allowed to be a part of that.
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Old 12-19-2018, 07:02 AM
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Here’s a thought I haven’t heard discussed much. What if Indigo plans to purchase a majority stake in Spirit but keep the 2 companies separate (ala GoJet/TransStates or Mesa/Freedom). If I were Indigo this would be a strong viable option to keep costs low long term as well as having an almost monopoly on the US ULCC market. New orders go to the lowest bidder. Neither ALPA scope prevents this scenario.
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Old 12-19-2018, 07:45 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyGuy2002 View Post
His specialty is flipping distressed carries and selling for a profit. He's not a longterm owner. And when he DOES sell F9 it will be for a handsome profit. He's already making a stake in WOW. His plan is certainly in motion. Turn F9 into a nice profit, sell, and move on. That has alway been his MO.s.
Everyone says this but nobody can answer this question.

WHAT DISTRESSED AIRLINES HAS HE “FLIPPED”?

His so called specialty.
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