JoeFever1

Now this is an excellent post if I must say so.

wannabebusdrivr

Sounds good. Thanks for the clarification. Makes it an easy choice to avoid regionals.

dracir1

Good question. Perhaps a little of both. I'm applying so I guess if the interview/CJO happens, I'm out. And giving one year example would be too skewed given the career/multi year implications. The only year we're compartive to any other airline is 1st yr FO pay. Anyone who decides to stay obviously has their own reason and good on them. I honestly wish them the best of luck. If I end up not moving on for whatever reason, I'm in the same boat so the real answer is just providing a calculation of differences.

Personally, we tout QoL like it's some massive upgrade but I don't think it's as big of an advantage as we like to believe. Even if it is, it's certainly not worth $60-100k a year I don't think. I posted the #s because I doubt many realize it boils down the that much. And, I was reminded by a friend that my AA/UA/DL rates aren't the NEW rates adjusted for cost of living (which are much higher now). It's actually a bigger gap.

dracir1

Well, if people are reading these posts, chances are they understand there are many variables - upgrade times, average monthly credit of min, etc. To compare apples to apples as closely as possible, you have to make assumptions.

Stayontarget

Ya my initial statement was too harsh so I apologize.

If we are going into whether or not you commute, think the business model is doomed, hate your life and dread coming to work than that is all personal and there’s nothing wrong with a personal decision. I have no argument against it.

But mathematically? After running a few simulations for myself with your assumptions and since you’re a captain I would be surprised if you ever caught up in total compensation by leaving. Predicting the future is hard. All I know is it won’t look like today.

spooldup

I think the QOL was better up until most of the recent contracts that almost equate or surpass our current contract from what I have heard/seen. I sure do hope we can get some good improvements to this next contract, mainly in retirement/disability as well as compensation, without losing QOL or gaining a little more.

dracir1

I agree. As everyone knows, prediciting the future is what we're all doing. Impossible of course but it's not hard to look at the "indicators" now and make a decent guess. My indicators:

Fact #1: Big 3 and now SW all have new contracts which raise the bar. Good on them and for the industry.
Question(s) #1 - can we assume we'll get comporable rates (given that our last contract fell short)? And, is being a few dollars less (say like $20-30/hr) close enough for me? What is the tradeoff between rate and QoL items? And finally, how much do the rates at F9 have to climb to to get out of the current stagnation?

My thoughts: whatever AIP we get, it will be at a lower rate. I read the ALPA proposed offer letter and the 1st thing I thought was that those rates would get negotiated down to less than the recent Big 4 current rates. In my mind, this shouldn't happen (and is sad). Rates shouldn't even be part of the negotiation as they're pretty much industry standard. EVERY other area of our contract should be an improvement - there is no such thing as "trading" QoL for salary. The industry is making record profits and we should be too. It's the job of our CEO and mgt to make that happen AND pay us market rates. If they can't do that, why not? Other airlines do - if we need to change strategies, then we should change strategies. Or, we need new mgt. And, until we can find a way to pay the same AND offer a quality product (neither of which we are doing now), there will still be lots of turnover/retention issues in the 3-5 yr FO ranks which would delay growth. F9 has a two-fold problem, we suck AND we pay sh!t - gotta fix both to make this a career airline. The only people who come and stay are those who haven't been offered a better option (yet) and become or already are too senior to start over. And sadly, I don't trust our NC to make those demands and go far enough for us to get them. I hope I'm wrong but history serves that I'm not.

Fact #2: All of the Big 4 have new contracts (SW soon enough). And, by proxy/snap-up, AK does too. JB and NK to get theirs before us most likely as well.
Question(s) #2 - how long before we have ours? And, given that it's a negotiation, will self-help be needed to get the most? Is a strike even possible in today's political climate?

My thoughts: The 1st AIP we see will be earliest at end of 2025 (summer 2026 wouldn't suprise me). I don't trust our pilot group to be solidified enough to strike but I DO think it would be possible if we really went that far. Our current drop/swap/trade is reduced/nullified by the fact that there's really nothing to swap/trade into. Open time (controlled by the company) is anemic. As far as dropping, that is allowed but follows a drop availability grid that the company controls that we have limited visibility into it's correctness and very little input into the reasons why. We also have limited control of reserve percentages and their use. Reserves are flown all over the country to cover trips out of base yet we can't drop a trip because the IN BASE availability is too low. Basically, the company has found a way around lots of our rules to make it such that we still maintain the capability but just can't due to availability. The only thing we can really tout as industry leading is our vacation slide rules. And it seems as if we're so enamoured w/ this and a few other things in Sec 25 that we ignore scope, pay, LTD and many other sections (there is still a small part of me that thinks fragmentation is possible). As mentioned, just about EVERY area of this contract needs improvement.

Fact #3: Hiring is highest ever in the industry and projected to last at least for the next 3-5 years (barring some large black swan event). Big 3 are also upgrading (in certain bases) inside of 3 years
Question(s) #2 - What does that mean exactly? How "high" on a seniority list does one need to be to avoid outright furlough given the next mass layoffs which are sure to come? Is a furlough definite or will the govt bail out those in need (or airlines go the SWA route and just pay everyone and absorb the loss)? Will Indigo go the route of offering concessionary contract or fold? How can I know if F9's long range plan is viable in the next 6 to 9 years? Are we even an airline or are we trying to be more Allegiant like (and be a travel company)? And how long will it take for me to get to the next airline and start earning close to/more than I do now?

My thoughts: this is the area that worries me the most. In fact, this is the ONLY reason I can find to stay at F9. I think the long range F9 goal is to change to whatever BB thinks it needs to be at the current time and I just don't trust him to do that very well (I do think he's trying). I think getting jumped by JB for NK left us w/o much of a plan and I realize that every airline that ever folded had a CEO at the helm trying. Who's to say F9 won't be the next one - maybe it was a fluke that almost every other airline made money but we lost last quarter (I will certainly be comparing the margins this quarter). F9 seems to have p!ssed off it's customer base enough to get them to go elsewhere - who know's how long the drought will last. But the one thing I don't see happening is us changing our ways to get them back. It's not difficult to see what AA/UA/DL long range plans are, who needs new airplanes (and will take on debt), who's focused on domestic leisure, business and international travel, etc. Each of their long range plans, albeit still a risk, seem more viable for the near and long term. And as far as leaving, getting hired and upgrading for higher overall compensation (either CA or widebody FO), I've found that upgrading to CA can occur anywhere from 6 months (commuting situation) to 3-4 years (non-commute). Right now, UA will pay CA pay to FOs w/ 350 hours and an upgrade slot (which are obtainable in Denver - Vegas and Orlando are a little longer wait). DL upgrade to LGA/JFK CA is 2 years. Widebody FO is actually a longer wait and pays less (not by much given the pay raises expected) but comes with many more days off and less actual cockpit work. When you factor in the greater options wrt commuting, LCA/schoolhouse/training opportunties, profit sharing, cheaper health insurance, crew meals and a few other things that F9 doesn't offer (and is not being asked for or have a reasonable chance of being obtained in the next contract), the compensation difference at widebody FO isn't much. It basically boils down to when F9 signs a new contract and how much it's worth (see my thoughts above about that).

I'm still not sure I'm leaving but the more bros (former CAs here) that I talk to, I'm leaning more towards it.

Stayontarget

And what if we got Legacy pay rates tomorrow? Or 2025? What would you decide to do?

dracir1

I would stay. Definitely. But the scenario you suggest has a 0.000002% chance of happening both in timing AND in the rate. If we were getting legacy rates soon, the company would be bragging about it to no end.

I'll flip the question back to you - when do you think we'll get higher rates and how much do you think they will be?

Itsclayman

Hey everyone! This is slightly off topic but I recived a CJO 2.5 months ago and when I email recruiting they keep saying my compliance documents are still "Pending" and that my finger prints are still "Not cleared yet". Has anyone else experienced this? Im not sure what to do.