Pilot shortage over?
12-17-2018, 08:38 PM
#31
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2018
Posts: 33
Originally Posted by rickair7777
Probably a seasonal pause. Jan-Feb are slow, and anyone starting class after late Sep will not be available for holiday flying, when they actually need them.
12-18-2018, 09:35 AM
#32
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,297
Originally Posted by Aviatour
I hope you are right about the seasonal pause. Is it worth throwing apps out when airlines aren’t hiring? Do they even look?
Yes. If they're accepting apps and you want to work there apply.
12-20-2018, 06:28 AM
#33
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Joined APC: Nov 2018
Posts: 26
Not really sure what to think about this. I definitely think that the Majors would prefer NOT to raise the age to 70 unless they have to. Currently, most pilots going to regionals would love the chance to jump and they are cheaper pilots than what it would cost to extend a senior guy 5 years...with one BIG exception. I have never seen so many 40-50 year olds getting hired by the regionals. 2nd career guys who made enough money and now want their dream job. If the age is not increased, a lot of these guys will be forced to retire from the regional. Eventually when the majors start looking for their new crop of pilots, they are going to be a bunch of old guys with just a few years left clogging the system. Since the old guys are staying at the regionals, they have less seats available to hire the young guys who will move up, what then? Majors will want to RAISE the age to 70, and bring in a 60 year old pilot for 10 years. This just seems logical to me.....not really sure in real life how it will work as I am not in aviation (yet!) but basic law of supply and demand
12-21-2018, 07:17 AM
#34
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,297
Originally Posted by Never2Late
Not really sure what to think about this. I definitely think that the Majors would prefer NOT to raise the age to 70 unless they have to. Currently, most pilots going to regionals would love the chance to jump and they are cheaper pilots than what it would cost to extend a senior guy 5 years...with one BIG exception. I have never seen so many 40-50 year olds getting hired by the regionals. 2nd career guys who made enough money and now want their dream job. If the age is not increased, a lot of these guys will be forced to retire from the regional. Eventually when the majors start looking for their new crop of pilots, they are going to be a bunch of old guys with just a few years left clogging the system. Since the old guys are staying at the regionals, they have less seats available to hire the young guys who will move up, what then? Majors will want to RAISE the age to 70, and bring in a 60 year old pilot for 10 years. This just seems logical to me.....not really sure in real life how it will work as I am not in aviation (yet!) but basic law of supply and demand
Historically the airlines have been pretty short-sighted, only addressing the wolf closest to the door.
They don't *want* older pilots (nobody in corporate america wants older workers if they can get away with it), and pilots are particularly bad because they can easily go out on company funded LTD (at the better majors), under the seniority system they can't just be fired to make room for fresh blood, and even if their performance slips you still can't do anything as long as they can pass sim and medical.
But if confronted with an (avoidable) shortage which will park a bunch of planes they'll fall all over themselves rushing to congress for the quick-fix to get them through next quarter's earnings call. That will take precedence over any sort of long-range demographic planning. Most of these managers will not be around to reap the benefit or pain resulting from long-range planning or lack there-of.
12-21-2018, 10:50 AM
#36
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2017
Position: 175 CA
Posts: 1,285
It must look a lot different at the top than at the bottom.
Flight schools are enrolling more students than any time in history and turning away CFI's. Regionals have stopped hiring in 2019 already (Endeavor, Republic, Horizon, Compass) and it's still 2018... Some like Envoy aren't really hiring FO's at all.
There is no pilot shortage. There never will be. 60K pulls everybody and their brother out of bed to become a pilot.
Flight schools are enrolling more students than any time in history and turning away CFI's. Regionals have stopped hiring in 2019 already (Endeavor, Republic, Horizon, Compass) and it's still 2018... Some like Envoy aren't really hiring FO's at all.
There is no pilot shortage. There never will be. 60K pulls everybody and their brother out of bed to become a pilot.
12-21-2018, 11:15 AM
#37
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2010
Position: Baja Vermont
Posts: 5,177
Originally Posted by Varsity
It must look a lot different at the top than at the bottom.
Flight schools are enrolling more students than any time in history and turning away CFI's. Regionals have stopped hiring in 2019 already (Endeavor, Republic, Horizon, Compass) and it's still 2018... Some like Envoy aren't really hiring FO's at all.
There is no pilot shortage. There never will be. 60K pulls everybody and their brother out of bed to become a pilot.
Flight schools are enrolling more students than any time in history and turning away CFI's. Regionals have stopped hiring in 2019 already (Endeavor, Republic, Horizon, Compass) and it's still 2018... Some like Envoy aren't really hiring FO's at all.
There is no pilot shortage. There never will be. 60K pulls everybody and their brother out of bed to become a pilot.
GF
12-21-2018, 02:41 PM
#38
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Position: CRJ9 CA
Posts: 4,083
There is no pilot shortage. Just a pay shortage. Endeavor proved that. They have all the pilots they need.
Originally Posted by FollowMe
Perhaps factual data sounds condescending to someone who believes themselves an authority on a topic which they clearly have little understanding of.
There are currently ~85,000 active ATP flying. In the next 20 years ~57,000 of them will reach age 65. As the bow wave of retirements accelerates (2020-2026) pilot demand will greatly outpace supply with ~30,000 age 65 retirements by 2026. One way to expand supply is to encourage more entrants, which the industry has been working on however there is a lag as it takes more than a few months to go from zero to ATP, or even R-ATP. Another option for expanding the supply is decreasing the exits by increasing the max age. To state emphatically that the airlines would be against this since those individual pilots in a vacuum will cost more in their seat is narrowly focused on one cost factor, and in no way is a supportable argument. Again, if you have done some supportable math to demonstrate that revenue lost due to lack of pilots for regional lift will be less than the increase in labor cost for this narrow group of pilots that would make for some interesting conversation.
I’m certain that the airlines are putting more thought into this than your soapbox speeches.
There are currently ~85,000 active ATP flying. In the next 20 years ~57,000 of them will reach age 65. As the bow wave of retirements accelerates (2020-2026) pilot demand will greatly outpace supply with ~30,000 age 65 retirements by 2026. One way to expand supply is to encourage more entrants, which the industry has been working on however there is a lag as it takes more than a few months to go from zero to ATP, or even R-ATP. Another option for expanding the supply is decreasing the exits by increasing the max age. To state emphatically that the airlines would be against this since those individual pilots in a vacuum will cost more in their seat is narrowly focused on one cost factor, and in no way is a supportable argument. Again, if you have done some supportable math to demonstrate that revenue lost due to lack of pilots for regional lift will be less than the increase in labor cost for this narrow group of pilots that would make for some interesting conversation.
I’m certain that the airlines are putting more thought into this than your soapbox speeches.
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