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Old 05-07-2024, 09:34 PM
  #2971  
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Originally Posted by METO Guido
Leading counselor. The present course of action, ongoing but restricted offensive material support/trade sanctions, will that result in Russian retreat from occupied areas?
Sanctions pretty much aren't effective. We've been sanctioning Cuba since Feb 3, 1962 and it ain't done squat. Well, it has given them the biggest collection of working 1950s US vehicles in the world, but other than that it ain't done squat.

https://www.lafontaineclassiccars.co...-classic-cars/

The problem with sanctions is that they interfere with the free market. For there to be any interactions to sanction there has to be a market to interfere with. Markets work because BOTH SIDES of the deal feel they are getting something more valuable than they are giving up. By that fact, sanctions initially hurt both sides. Not only that, their effectiveness goes away with time as the people being sanctioned find other markets to replace the previous ones, just as Russia has sold a lot more oil to India and China to offset that they are no longer selling to Western Europe.

I think the best chance that Ukraine had to retain Crimea and the Donbas was the Minsk II agreement allowing these areas a degree of self government while still keeping them nominally part of Ukraine.

https://epicenter.wcfia.harvard.edu/...nsk-agreements

Certainly not ideal by any means but probably woukd have been better than the subsequent outcome.

Perhaps if both sides bleed enough they might actually go back and give something like Minsk II a trial, although the longer that Russia keeps gaining and the more this costs them the less likely I think they'll be to give any of it up. Just my opinion.
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Old 05-08-2024, 06:37 AM
  #2972  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
Perhaps if both sides bleed enough they might actually go back and give something like Minsk II a trial, although the longer that Russia keeps gaining and the more this costs them the less likely I think they'll be to give any of it up. Just my opinion.
No, that compromise burned & sank. Too much blood spilled at this point. The power plant remains in play. Control of Odessa and so on. Sanctions might have been stiffened but were not for some reason. Who can say what discrete offers are being floated through various backwater channels? Has to be some communication in gray speak taking place.

In addition to the gratuitous personal/partisan attacks generated from the pro-admin posters here, I'm seeing push back in steady accusations of traitorous pro-Russian messaging. As if any discussion regards US lack of progress, effort on peace accord is basically Jane protesting from an enemy anti-aircraft gun.
Like most high risk operations, the longer this goes on, the more complacency over sudden, unintended escalation sets in. That and as you mentioned, bargaining from a weaker hand next winter won't help.
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Old 05-08-2024, 07:48 AM
  #2973  
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Default Worth a read…

https://www.realcleardefense.com/art...y_1030230.html
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Old 05-08-2024, 11:44 AM
  #2974  
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Default Ukraine takes a page from Wagner’s book…

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...kraine-russia/


  1. DEFENSE

Ukraine moves to send convicts to the front line — minus the rapists and killers

Those convicted of particularly serious crimes, and some categories of corrupt officials, will not be allowed to choose the front over a jail cell.
​​​​​​​After weeks of pressure from civil society, parliament ruled that MPs and some top government officials who have committed crimes would be ineligible to have their sentences commuted, Ukrainian MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak said in a Telegram post from the parliament on Wednesday.

Other prisoners, as long as they weren't convicted of a serious crime, face one condition — no more than three years may remain before the end of their sentences. Requests to be allowed to fight in exchange for freedom must be approved by the courts.

The Anti-Corruption Action Center, a Kyiv-based watchdog, called the vote “a victory with a bitter taste,” given that not all types of corrupt officials were excluded from the law's provisions.

“The list [of those excluded] does not include officials of the President's Office, heads of state-owned enterprises, investigators, prosecutors and judges. Thus, part of the work of anti-corruption bodies in previous years may go under the cat's tail [be in vain],” the watchdog said in a statement.

“After all, many judges, prosecutors and other officials convicted of corruption are already serving their sentences, [and] will now be able to use this mechanism and get out of prison.”

Desperate for recruits after a six-month delay in declaringmobilization, Ukraine’s MPs took a page straight from the book of Russia's Wagner Group mercenary force — which also allows convicts to reduce their jail terms through military service.

The lawmakers hope a regulated, voluntary process will allow Kyiv to mobilize up to 10,000 convicts for the war. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy must sign the bill before it can take effect.

​​​​​​​
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Old 05-08-2024, 02:26 PM
  #2975  
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Might as well. Russia has been doing that for quite some time.
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Old 05-08-2024, 03:12 PM
  #2976  
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Originally Posted by TransWorld
Might as well. Russia has been doing that for quite some time.
..and what conclusions do we draw from that?
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Old 05-08-2024, 04:22 PM
  #2977  
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Originally Posted by METO Guido
..and what conclusions do we draw from that?
that russia should be allowed to annex by force every neighbor they have…. duhhhh
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Old 05-09-2024, 08:08 AM
  #2978  
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Originally Posted by Hubcapped
that russia should be allowed to annex by force every neighbor they have…. duhhhh
Yeah, and the poor russians that are dying on the battlefield. We should just let them annex Ukraine to save those poor souls. Duhh!
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Old 05-09-2024, 08:31 AM
  #2979  
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Originally Posted by Hubcapped
…. duhhhh
Originally Posted by Tfork
Duhh!

Maybe you bothought to try making a more...intellectual ...contribution to the discussion?

Like this one:

CONCLUDING CONFLICT: WHY ENDING WAR IS NEVER AN EASY STRATEGY

https://warroom.armywarcollege.edu/articles/concluding-conflict
/

An excerpt:

​​​​​​​Tactics sans Strategy

Despite their primacy in the creation of strategy, directed political objectives can be inappropriately tactically focused and impede the prosecution and termination of conflict, even when generated from outside the military. Political objectives that are inherently tactical will likely lack some larger theory of victory, resulting in protracted wars in which the best possible outcome is a stalemate. During the Vietnam War, the Johnson administration’s flawed policy of attrition within a limited conflict was translated by Pentagon officials into a series of essentially tactical tasks, such as killing more enemy troops or bombing certain targets. As a technologically superior force with over 500,000 servicemembers deployed to Vietnam, the United States was able to conduct these tasks with impunity, generating scores of data and analytics in doing so. The United States remained undefeated in all major battles throughout the war, but failed because its strategy focused on tactical actions and never established defined and feasible outcomes against an opponent fighting an unlimited conflict. The United States’ failure in Vietnam is an example of the pithy quotation often incorrectly attributed to Sun Tzu, “tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” It is essential for strategists to collaborate with policymakers to inform the best use of military force, including identifying political objectives obtainable through military power. Only then can a state work towards termination criteria and know when to end a conflict.
That article is worth a read.
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Old 05-09-2024, 08:54 AM
  #2980  
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And the stupidity marches on.
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