Ukraine conflict
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#3093
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I don't particularly agree with it. I think it's simplistic, impractical, and risks getting a lot of people killed for little if any gain, and it has nothing approaching facts or data in it - it's purely opinion but I'll toss it out there because I know Hub and Lowslung will like it and they probably wouldn't find it on their own. And no, this ISN'T satire.
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/202...lation/396681/
MAY 22, 2024 06:02 AM ET
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/202...lation/396681/
How to win in Ukraine: pour it on, and don’t worry about escalation
How to win in Ukraine: pour it on, and don’t worry about escalation
The Biden administration has been too cautious. There’s still time to change that.
ANDREW RADINMAY 22, 2024 06:02 AM ET
#3094
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Posts: 1,598
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I do agree. It stops here. One way or another.
Encouraged by the Speaker’s budget victory including Ukraine aid. Total waste of time we don’t have disputing it. Rare bipartisan hand holding if no guarantee of a second date.
Russia is paranoid sociopathic not stupid. Carrot & stick resolutions work. Like his rival the Don, Putin claims victory no matter how it goes down.
Encouraged by the Speaker’s budget victory including Ukraine aid. Total waste of time we don’t have disputing it. Rare bipartisan hand holding if no guarantee of a second date.
Russia is paranoid sociopathic not stupid. Carrot & stick resolutions work. Like his rival the Don, Putin claims victory no matter how it goes down.
#3095
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I do agree. It stops here. One way or another.
Encouraged by the Speaker’s budget victory including Ukraine aid. Total waste of time we don’t have disputing it. Rare bipartisan hand holding if no guarantee of a second date.
Russia is paranoid sociopathic not stupid. Carrot & stick resolutions work. Like his rival the Don, Putin claims victory no matter how it goes down.
Encouraged by the Speaker’s budget victory including Ukraine aid. Total waste of time we don’t have disputing it. Rare bipartisan hand holding if no guarantee of a second date.
Russia is paranoid sociopathic not stupid. Carrot & stick resolutions work. Like his rival the Don, Putin claims victory no matter how it goes down.
George Washington was right. We should have listened to him.
#3096
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Posts: 1,598
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If there is one thing history teaches us it is that nothing ever "stops here", particularly in Europe where they routinely still b1tch about events that transpired back when the Americas were still Terra incognita.
George Washington was right. We should have listened to him.
George Washington was right. We should have listened to him.
#3097
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that the limited Russian offensive in northern Ukraine is achieving its goal of drawing attention away from intense Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine. Zelensky stated in an interview with Reuters published on May 20 that the situation in northern Kharkiv Oblast is now stable but that “no one” is paying attention to the wave of Russian offensive operations in Donbas in the Chasiv Yar (Bakhmut), Pokrovsk (Avdiivka), and Kurakhove (west of Donetsk City) directions.[7] Zelensky stated that the situation in northern Kharkiv Oblast has been stable for about a week, which is consistent with the slowing pace of Russian advances in the Lyptsi (north of Kharkiv City) and Vovchansk directions following the initial few days of relatively rapid tactical advances.[8] Russian forces recently intensified their efforts to seize the operationally-significant town of Chasiv Yar west of Bakhmut as the tempo of operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast decreased, highlighting how the northern Kharkiv Oblast effort aims to draw and fix Ukrainian forces and create opportunities for Russian forces elsewhere in the theater.[9] As ISW has consistently reported, Russian forces' most immediate prospect for operationally-significant gains remains the Chasiv Yar direction, as seizing Chasiv Yar would enable Russian forces to set conditions to attack part of a "fortress belt" of cities forming the backbone of Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast defenses, and Russian forces likely seek to exploit unfavorable situations for Ukrainian forces defending near Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka before US military assistance arrives at the frontlines at scale.[10] The Ukrainian General Staff has reported for the past week that Russian forces maintain a higher tempo of offensive operations in the Avdiivka direction even as the situation in northern Kharkiv Oblast has stabilized.[11]
The Russian military command reportedly initially planned that Russian forces would quickly make significant advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast, but the limited force grouping deployed to the area suggests that the Russian military command likely changed these plans in the lead up to offensive operations in Kharkiv Oblast. The Economist reported on May 20 that it viewed Russian military plans from an unspecified date about a planned Russian offensive in the Kharkiv City and Vovchansk directions.[12] The Russian plans reportedly called for Russian forces to advance to Borshchova (about 20 kilometers northeast of Kharkiv City and about 16 kilometers from the international border) within 72 hours in order to place Russian forces within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City. The Russian plans also reportedly called for Russian forces to advance to Pechenihy (south of Vovchansk and about 50 kilometers from the international border) in an unspecified time frame. The Russian offensive was reportedly initially planned to begin May 15 to 16, and the Economist stated that it is unknown why Russian forces pushed forward their offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast to May 10 instead. ISW assesses that Russian forces have advanced a maximum of about 10 kilometers deep in the Kharkiv City direction and a maximum of about seven kilometers deep in the Vovchansk direction since May 10. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi reported on May 2 that Russian forces had concentrated about 35,000 personnel in the international border area and planned to concentrate a total of 50,000 to 70,000 personnel.[13] Russian forces reportedly launched offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast when the Northern Grouping of Forces was understrength and have only committed a limited amount of combat power to the area thus far.[14]
The Russian military command very likely did not expect these limited and understrength forces to be able to reach these objectives, and a Ukrainian reserve officer observed that Russian forces have focused on ”creeping advances” rather than swift drives to an operational depth since their military failures in 2022.[15] The Economist did not specify when the Russian military command created these reported plans, and it is possible that the Russian military command created the plans before it became clear that the Northern Grouping of Forces would not be staffed at its desired end strength or that an earlier or more limited attack was desired. The Russian military command may have also decided to start offensive operations with an understrength grouping to take advantage of Ukrainian manpower and materiel shortages before the arrival of Western aid at scale to the frontline.
The Russian military command reportedly initially planned that Russian forces would quickly make significant advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast, but the limited force grouping deployed to the area suggests that the Russian military command likely changed these plans in the lead up to offensive operations in Kharkiv Oblast. The Economist reported on May 20 that it viewed Russian military plans from an unspecified date about a planned Russian offensive in the Kharkiv City and Vovchansk directions.[12] The Russian plans reportedly called for Russian forces to advance to Borshchova (about 20 kilometers northeast of Kharkiv City and about 16 kilometers from the international border) within 72 hours in order to place Russian forces within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City. The Russian plans also reportedly called for Russian forces to advance to Pechenihy (south of Vovchansk and about 50 kilometers from the international border) in an unspecified time frame. The Russian offensive was reportedly initially planned to begin May 15 to 16, and the Economist stated that it is unknown why Russian forces pushed forward their offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast to May 10 instead. ISW assesses that Russian forces have advanced a maximum of about 10 kilometers deep in the Kharkiv City direction and a maximum of about seven kilometers deep in the Vovchansk direction since May 10. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi reported on May 2 that Russian forces had concentrated about 35,000 personnel in the international border area and planned to concentrate a total of 50,000 to 70,000 personnel.[13] Russian forces reportedly launched offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast when the Northern Grouping of Forces was understrength and have only committed a limited amount of combat power to the area thus far.[14]
The Russian military command very likely did not expect these limited and understrength forces to be able to reach these objectives, and a Ukrainian reserve officer observed that Russian forces have focused on ”creeping advances” rather than swift drives to an operational depth since their military failures in 2022.[15] The Economist did not specify when the Russian military command created these reported plans, and it is possible that the Russian military command created the plans before it became clear that the Northern Grouping of Forces would not be staffed at its desired end strength or that an earlier or more limited attack was desired. The Russian military command may have also decided to start offensive operations with an understrength grouping to take advantage of Ukrainian manpower and materiel shortages before the arrival of Western aid at scale to the frontline.
#3098
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OPINION: The Biden Administration’s Schizophrenic Support of Ukraine’s War Effort
Washington’s policy on not allowing Ukraine to use US-made weapons to attack military targets on Russian territory is now jeopardizing all the aid given to date.However my opinion may differ from some, from a purely TACTICAL standpoint it is difficult to disagree with the title. Allowing a near 700 mile safe haven (more than that if you count Belarus) immediately adjacent to where you are fighting where your opponent can marshal their forces and logistics in relative impunity is - to say the least - a pretty bizarre way to fight. Of course Ukraine is the proxy, near totally dependent on US support after most of Western Europe has spent at least the last 30 years neglecting their militaries. Heck, the UK has fouled up their last two attempts at launching Trident missiles due to human error.
https://www.iiss.org/en/online-analy...r%20the%20test.
So Ukraine sort of HAS to play by the US rules, even if that puts them at a huge disadvantage.
And of course that's starting to get the Ukraine upset. Some excerpts:
“This is insane.” Davyd Arakhamiya, a member of the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’sparliament, forcefully said out loud what most military experts and analysts have long thought – and we have argued repeatedly here in Kyiv Post and in Washington.
Arakhamiya, leading a Ukrainian delegation to Washington, DC last week to meet with Biden administration officials, rightly railed against the Pentagon prohibition against using weapons and munitions provided by the United States to target Russian forces and their equipment massing in assembly areas inside of Russia.
Ukraine is now facing a Bastogne-like moment in Kharkiv Oblast – and had Kyiv been allowed to interdict these forces in the Belgorod region prior to launching their offensive, Ukraine might have prevented Russia from capturing roughly 50-square miles of Ukrainian territory.
Arakhamiya, leading a Ukrainian delegation to Washington, DC last week to meet with Biden administration officials, rightly railed against the Pentagon prohibition against using weapons and munitions provided by the United States to target Russian forces and their equipment massing in assembly areas inside of Russia.
Ukraine is now facing a Bastogne-like moment in Kharkiv Oblast – and had Kyiv been allowed to interdict these forces in the Belgorod region prior to launching their offensive, Ukraine might have prevented Russia from capturing roughly 50-square miles of Ukrainian territory.
The insanity of being stuck in the perpetual “close fight” may serve the Biden administration’s “weaken Russia” strategy, but it is literally killing Ukraine.
So what is the reason for the restriction? Offhand the possible reasons woukd seem to be:
a. Genuine fear of escalation to nuclear combat.
b. Political - unwilling to risk further potentially bad PR with an election upcoming.
c. ???
So what's your take?
#3099
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Posts: 1,598
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My take is the Co. has back channel com with even the hooties. Our enemy(s) may or may not play their hand rationally. Gen. Austin is a Co. man. There’s little if any doubt he possesses command authority as air/land/sea boss. Likewise, for all its many political masters, there is zero chance DOD attack plan R won’t be carried out if & when that order is given. Purity of Essence, great name for a race horse don’t you think?
#3100
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My take is the Co. has back channel com with even the hooties. Our enemy(s) may or may not play their hand rationally. Gen. Austin is a Co. man. There’s little if any doubt he possesses command authority as air/land/sea boss. Likewise, for all its many political masters, there is zero chance DOD attack plan R won’t be carried out if & when that order is given. Purity of Essence, great name for a race horse don’t you think?
https://youtu.be/qXp8SnXUvEo?si=MfMmvxg02FUul77G
I can sort of picture Hub like that...
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