Climate Science
10-03-2009, 05:44 AM
#1
Libertarian Resistance
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Position: 757 FO
Posts: 1,057
Climate Science
I don't know if anyone here follows this, but I thought I'd make it available to the casual observer.
A study from the 1990s using tree ring cores as temperature proxies "demonstrated" that the global temperature was rising precipitously. The study generated the famous "hockey stick" graph that was used in the UN (IPCC) report and Gore's "documentary" movie. The only problem was that the analysis was flawed and the graph was decisively refuted by a Canadian statistician (Steve McIntyre). The IPCC has dropped the graph from its more recent reports. No corrections yet from the Gore camp.
McIntyre has been after the original analysts for years to provide him with the raw data so he can replicate/refute their results. They have, to this day, refused to do so. However, another study was done using the same data set and McIntyre got a hold of the data set. He has reconstructed the study and, this time, has not just destroyed the statistical analysis but the entire scientific validity of the study itself. Essentially they constructed a global temperature model using a handful of trees (and heavily weighting one tree in particular) when many more trees were available.
Links are here for the statisticians:
http://www.climateaudit.org/
And here for those who don't speak statistics:
Watts Up With That?
Every time in the past ten years or so, when you've been told by the government, the media, or some scientist that the Earth is warmer now than it has been in the past 1,000 years they have been pointing to the results of this study, which has now been falsified.
Does this mean the earth is cooling? No it does not, neither does it mean the earth is warming.
Does it mean that CO2 is good for the atmosphere? No it does not, neither does it mean that CO2 is bad for the atmosphere.
What it does mean is that when someone tells you that the "science is settled" they don't know what they are talking about.
WW
A study from the 1990s using tree ring cores as temperature proxies "demonstrated" that the global temperature was rising precipitously. The study generated the famous "hockey stick" graph that was used in the UN (IPCC) report and Gore's "documentary" movie. The only problem was that the analysis was flawed and the graph was decisively refuted by a Canadian statistician (Steve McIntyre). The IPCC has dropped the graph from its more recent reports. No corrections yet from the Gore camp.
McIntyre has been after the original analysts for years to provide him with the raw data so he can replicate/refute their results. They have, to this day, refused to do so. However, another study was done using the same data set and McIntyre got a hold of the data set. He has reconstructed the study and, this time, has not just destroyed the statistical analysis but the entire scientific validity of the study itself. Essentially they constructed a global temperature model using a handful of trees (and heavily weighting one tree in particular) when many more trees were available.
Links are here for the statisticians:
http://www.climateaudit.org/
And here for those who don't speak statistics:
Watts Up With That?
Every time in the past ten years or so, when you've been told by the government, the media, or some scientist that the Earth is warmer now than it has been in the past 1,000 years they have been pointing to the results of this study, which has now been falsified.
Does this mean the earth is cooling? No it does not, neither does it mean the earth is warming.
Does it mean that CO2 is good for the atmosphere? No it does not, neither does it mean that CO2 is bad for the atmosphere.
What it does mean is that when someone tells you that the "science is settled" they don't know what they are talking about.
WW
10-03-2009, 05:49 AM
#2
Libertarian Resistance
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Position: 757 FO
Posts: 1,057
More outline
Flawed climate data
An OP/ED by a collaborator of McIntyre's (WW):
The expert reports upheld all of our criticisms of the Mann Hockey Stick, both of the mathematics and of its reliance on flawed bristlecone pine data. One of the panels, however, argued that while the Mann Hockey Stick itself was flawed, a series of other studies published since 1998 had similar shapes, thus providing support for the view that the late 20th century is unusually warm. The IPCC also made this argument in its 2007 report. But the second expert panel, led by statistician Edward Wegman, pointed out that the other studies are not independent. They are written by the same small circle of authors, only the names are in different orders, and they reuse the same few data climate proxy series over and over.
Most of the proxy data does not show anything unusual about the 20th century. But two data series have reappeared over and over that do have a hockey stick shape. One was the flawed bristlecone data that the National Academy of Sciences panel said should not be used, so the studies using it can be set aside. The second was a tree ring curve from the Yamal Peninsula in Siberia, compiled by UK scientist Keith Briffa.
Briffa had published a paper in 1995 claiming that the Medieval period actually contained the coldest year of the millennium. But this claim depended on just three tree ring records (called cores) from the Polar Urals. Later, a colleague of his named F.H. Schweingruber produced a much larger sample from the Polar Urals, but it told a very different story: The medieval era was actually quite warm and the late 20th century was unexceptional. Briffa and Schweingruber never published those data, instead they dropped the Polar Urals altogether from their climate reconstruction papers.
In its place they used a new series that Briffa had calculated from tree ring data from the nearby Yamal Peninsula that had a pronounced Hockey Stick shape: relatively flat for 900 years then sharply rising in the 20th century. This Yamal series was a composite of an undisclosed number of individual tree cores. In order to check the steps involved in producing the composite, it would be necessary to have the individual tree ring measurements themselves. But Briffa didn't release his raw data.
Read more: http://www.financialpost.com/opinion/story.html?id=2056988#ixzz0Sse1KkQI
An OP/ED by a collaborator of McIntyre's (WW):
Beginning in 2003, I worked with Stephen McIntyre to replicate a famous result in paleoclimatology known as the Hockey Stick graph. Developed by a U.S. climatologist named Michael Mann, it was a statistical compilation of tree ring data supposedly proving that air temperatures had been stable for 900 years, then soared off the charts in the 20th century. Prior to the publication of the Hockey Stick, scientists had held that the medieval-era was warmer than the present, making the scale of 20th century global warming seem relatively unimportant. The dramatic revision to this view occasioned by the Hockey Stick's publication made it the poster child of the global warming movement. It was featured prominently in a 2001 report of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as well as government websites and countless review reports.
Steve and I showed that the mathematics behind the Mann Hockey Stick were badly flawed, such that its shape was determined by suspect bristlecone tree ring data. Controversies quickly piled up: Two expert panels involving the U.S. National Academy of Sciences were asked to investigate, the U.S. Congress held a hearing, and the media followed the story around the world.The expert reports upheld all of our criticisms of the Mann Hockey Stick, both of the mathematics and of its reliance on flawed bristlecone pine data. One of the panels, however, argued that while the Mann Hockey Stick itself was flawed, a series of other studies published since 1998 had similar shapes, thus providing support for the view that the late 20th century is unusually warm. The IPCC also made this argument in its 2007 report. But the second expert panel, led by statistician Edward Wegman, pointed out that the other studies are not independent. They are written by the same small circle of authors, only the names are in different orders, and they reuse the same few data climate proxy series over and over.
Most of the proxy data does not show anything unusual about the 20th century. But two data series have reappeared over and over that do have a hockey stick shape. One was the flawed bristlecone data that the National Academy of Sciences panel said should not be used, so the studies using it can be set aside. The second was a tree ring curve from the Yamal Peninsula in Siberia, compiled by UK scientist Keith Briffa.
Briffa had published a paper in 1995 claiming that the Medieval period actually contained the coldest year of the millennium. But this claim depended on just three tree ring records (called cores) from the Polar Urals. Later, a colleague of his named F.H. Schweingruber produced a much larger sample from the Polar Urals, but it told a very different story: The medieval era was actually quite warm and the late 20th century was unexceptional. Briffa and Schweingruber never published those data, instead they dropped the Polar Urals altogether from their climate reconstruction papers.
In its place they used a new series that Briffa had calculated from tree ring data from the nearby Yamal Peninsula that had a pronounced Hockey Stick shape: relatively flat for 900 years then sharply rising in the 20th century. This Yamal series was a composite of an undisclosed number of individual tree cores. In order to check the steps involved in producing the composite, it would be necessary to have the individual tree ring measurements themselves. But Briffa didn't release his raw data.
Read more: http://www.financialpost.com/opinion/story.html?id=2056988#ixzz0Sse1KkQI
10-03-2009, 08:26 AM
#3
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Position: BassTracker
Posts: 664
Well I got kicked off the forums for 30 days for the same thread basically recently, so I will play it cool. Can the scientists control the sun if it gets hotter? How do they know it's man made if the earth is heating up? All I will say is MAYBE it's man made if the planet is heating up. You don't know, the scientists don't know, and Al Gore certainly is making a crap load of money!
10-03-2009, 09:38 AM
#6
With The Resistance
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Burning the Agitprop of the Apparat
Posts: 6,191
The best use for broken hockey sticks, build a nice chair!
Google Image Result for http://www.woodies.com/images/500/MC3%20Cameo%20on%20Dock%20500W.jpg
Google Image Result for http://www.woodies.com/images/500/MC3%20Cameo%20on%20Dock%20500W.jpg
10-03-2009, 03:19 PM
#7
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Legacy FO
Posts: 4,096
Here's what is ironic. The state Kentucky recorded the coolest July -- ON RECORD. Yes, the coolest July ever for the state. And for those of us who live in the east / northeast, it has been a very mild and rainy summer. Rarely did we have days over 90 degrees.
Here is some more irony. High sea temperatures cause hurricanes right? Or so they say. Well, I've seen numerous news reports this summer about how the sea temperatures were the highest ever. But, the intensity and the amount of hurricanes have been relatively low. In fact, those hurricane prediction centers have lowered their numbers.
The more and more I hear these people talk, the more they just don't make sense. It seems to me that we have a lot more to learn about Global temperature changes.
Here is some more irony. High sea temperatures cause hurricanes right? Or so they say. Well, I've seen numerous news reports this summer about how the sea temperatures were the highest ever. But, the intensity and the amount of hurricanes have been relatively low. In fact, those hurricane prediction centers have lowered their numbers.
The more and more I hear these people talk, the more they just don't make sense. It seems to me that we have a lot more to learn about Global temperature changes.
10-06-2009, 06:50 AM
#8
Line Holder
Joined APC: Oct 2009
Position: Baron B-55 Left Seat
Posts: 95
Global warming seems to trend itself with the activity of our solar system, namely the sun. Every 20-30 years history has shown us that the earth hits a warming trend, this is caused by the earths position relative to the sun and the amount of solar activity from the sun itself. This obviously is neither controllable or easily explainable other than saying that our orbital path will cross a "close point" to the sun every so many decades. We "did" hit it but obviously we are out of it now.
In light of the hurricane statement, you are right on the money, i had that same argument. Hurricanes feed off of warm water, yet since our sea temperatures have risen oh so much, we have seen less and less hurricanes... Could it be that our last terrible season of hurricanes was back in 2004-2005?
Or we can simply argue the fact that Mr.Gore would like us to argue, the "greenhouse effect" his argument is that we humans have put out so much C02 its acting as an insulator to the earth trapping heat. What he cant explain is that according to a study done at Oxford showed that MT. Vesuvius (volcano in Europe) releases up to 10x more C02 in one eruption than all of mankind combined.
This does not mean we should continue to pollute the earth. I don't believe in global warming in the sense that it wont reverse its self and that we are the cause. I do believe in earth warming trends though. And while i hate that the fat cats in Washington including gore are making money off of this global warming stuff, we should all work to reduce our dependency on natural resources namely foreign oils.
In light of the hurricane statement, you are right on the money, i had that same argument. Hurricanes feed off of warm water, yet since our sea temperatures have risen oh so much, we have seen less and less hurricanes... Could it be that our last terrible season of hurricanes was back in 2004-2005?
Or we can simply argue the fact that Mr.Gore would like us to argue, the "greenhouse effect" his argument is that we humans have put out so much C02 its acting as an insulator to the earth trapping heat. What he cant explain is that according to a study done at Oxford showed that MT. Vesuvius (volcano in Europe) releases up to 10x more C02 in one eruption than all of mankind combined.
This does not mean we should continue to pollute the earth. I don't believe in global warming in the sense that it wont reverse its self and that we are the cause. I do believe in earth warming trends though. And while i hate that the fat cats in Washington including gore are making money off of this global warming stuff, we should all work to reduce our dependency on natural resources namely foreign oils.
10-06-2009, 09:29 AM
#10
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Position: BassTracker
Posts: 664
Originally Posted by asims33
Global warming seems to trend itself with the activity of our solar system, namely the sun. Every 20-30 years history has shown us that the earth hits a warming trend, this is caused by the earths position relative to the sun and the amount of solar activity from the sun itself. This obviously is neither controllable or easily explainable other than saying that our orbital path will cross a "close point" to the sun every so many decades. We "did" hit it but obviously we are out of it now.
In light of the hurricane statement, you are right on the money, i had that same argument. Hurricanes feed off of warm water, yet since our sea temperatures have risen oh so much, we have seen less and less hurricanes... Could it be that our last terrible season of hurricanes was back in 2004-2005?
Or we can simply argue the fact that Mr.Gore would like us to argue, the "greenhouse effect" his argument is that we humans have put out so much C02 its acting as an insulator to the earth trapping heat. What he cant explain is that according to a study done at Oxford showed that MT. Vesuvius (volcano in Europe) releases up to 10x more C02 in one eruption than all of mankind combined.
This does not mean we should continue to pollute the earth. I don't believe in global warming in the sense that it wont reverse its self and that we are the cause. I do believe in earth warming trends though. And while i hate that the fat cats in Washington including gore are making money off of this global warming stuff, we should all work to reduce our dependency on natural resources namely foreign oils.
In light of the hurricane statement, you are right on the money, i had that same argument. Hurricanes feed off of warm water, yet since our sea temperatures have risen oh so much, we have seen less and less hurricanes... Could it be that our last terrible season of hurricanes was back in 2004-2005?
Or we can simply argue the fact that Mr.Gore would like us to argue, the "greenhouse effect" his argument is that we humans have put out so much C02 its acting as an insulator to the earth trapping heat. What he cant explain is that according to a study done at Oxford showed that MT. Vesuvius (volcano in Europe) releases up to 10x more C02 in one eruption than all of mankind combined.
This does not mean we should continue to pollute the earth. I don't believe in global warming in the sense that it wont reverse its self and that we are the cause. I do believe in earth warming trends though. And while i hate that the fat cats in Washington including gore are making money off of this global warming stuff, we should all work to reduce our dependency on natural resources namely foreign oils.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
