The sun is setting on GA
08-23-2006, 07:06 PM
#1
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Joined APC: May 2005
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Posts: 7,119
The sun is setting on GA
Things keep slowing down for the average Joe private pilot. In 20 years GA will be the exclusive playground of the rich or professional.
Posted August 2, 2006
AirVenture attendance drops
By Doug Zellmer
of The Northwestern
Attendance for AirVenture 2006 was down about 10 percent from last year, a figure Experimental Aircraft Association officials expected with higher fuel costs and poor weather.
An estimated 625,000 attended the seven-day gathering that concluded Sunday at Wittman Regional Airport.
EAA officials expected a decrease in attendance based in part because of sharp increases in auto and aviation fuel, unfavorable weather conditions compared to last year and unique attractions like SpaceShipOne that brought in sizable crowds for the 2005 event.
EAA's overall attendance estimate is developed by adding the number of people estimated to be on the grounds each day for the weeklong event. People who attend for seven days, for example, count as seven attendees. Typically, that equates to between 200,000 and 300,000 individual visitors.
Oshkosh resident and EAA member Fred Behlendorf, who was at the event all seven days, said it seemed like fewer people were at the 2006 gathering.
"I believe there was a little less for attendance. I noticed that," Behlendorf said.
He said AirVenture 2006 was still a good show and a time to bond with those who enjoy aviation.
"I look the planes over and talk to other pilots that come in and visit with old friends that come up every year," Behlendorf said. "To me, it's meeting with people and having friendships and talking about things that you like."
Although attendance was down, EAA president Tom Poberezny noted that the convention featured more new aviation announcements than any AirVenture in history.
"In addition, there were many more activities and events that added value for EAA members and aviation enthusiasts," Poberezny said in a written statement. "Comments from visitors are overwhelmingly positive about the aircraft, events and organization of EAA AirVenture, which is a credit to the volunteers, staff and community who work hard to make it successful."
Doug Zellmer: (920) 426-6667 or [email protected].
Posted August 2, 2006
AirVenture attendance drops
By Doug Zellmer
of The Northwestern
Attendance for AirVenture 2006 was down about 10 percent from last year, a figure Experimental Aircraft Association officials expected with higher fuel costs and poor weather.
An estimated 625,000 attended the seven-day gathering that concluded Sunday at Wittman Regional Airport.
EAA officials expected a decrease in attendance based in part because of sharp increases in auto and aviation fuel, unfavorable weather conditions compared to last year and unique attractions like SpaceShipOne that brought in sizable crowds for the 2005 event.
EAA's overall attendance estimate is developed by adding the number of people estimated to be on the grounds each day for the weeklong event. People who attend for seven days, for example, count as seven attendees. Typically, that equates to between 200,000 and 300,000 individual visitors.
Oshkosh resident and EAA member Fred Behlendorf, who was at the event all seven days, said it seemed like fewer people were at the 2006 gathering.
"I believe there was a little less for attendance. I noticed that," Behlendorf said.
He said AirVenture 2006 was still a good show and a time to bond with those who enjoy aviation.
"I look the planes over and talk to other pilots that come in and visit with old friends that come up every year," Behlendorf said. "To me, it's meeting with people and having friendships and talking about things that you like."
Although attendance was down, EAA president Tom Poberezny noted that the convention featured more new aviation announcements than any AirVenture in history.
"In addition, there were many more activities and events that added value for EAA members and aviation enthusiasts," Poberezny said in a written statement. "Comments from visitors are overwhelmingly positive about the aircraft, events and organization of EAA AirVenture, which is a credit to the volunteers, staff and community who work hard to make it successful."
Doug Zellmer: (920) 426-6667 or [email protected].
08-24-2006, 04:38 AM
#2
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2006
Position: BE-20, RA390
Posts: 644
Sad
I have seen private flying by individuals decrease by leaps and bounds. Sometimes, I go for a week without hearing a single engine fly near my house.
In last month's AOPA, someone wrote a letter blaming the poor business practices by flight schools. I have seen his logic before. These people think that these businesses should forgo profits and operate for the "love of aviation". Well, Lycoming, Cessna Parts, USAIG, and ExxonMobil don't take "love" for payments. Part 61 schools are going by the wayside. Aviation companies make little or no margin on their flight schools, so they don't focus on them.
When Cessna and Cirrus started ramping up production, everyone envisioned a return to 1978 era general aviation. It has not happened. I don't think it will.
In last month's AOPA, someone wrote a letter blaming the poor business practices by flight schools. I have seen his logic before. These people think that these businesses should forgo profits and operate for the "love of aviation". Well, Lycoming, Cessna Parts, USAIG, and ExxonMobil don't take "love" for payments. Part 61 schools are going by the wayside. Aviation companies make little or no margin on their flight schools, so they don't focus on them.
When Cessna and Cirrus started ramping up production, everyone envisioned a return to 1978 era general aviation. It has not happened. I don't think it will.
08-24-2006, 05:57 PM
#3
done, gone skiing
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Rocking chair
Posts: 1,601
The death of GA
General aviation's decline is not hard to understand if you look at the underlying trends in society today.
1. The advent of the interstate highway system.
The interstate highways system allows anyone with a (cheep) land vehicle to move effortless at 65+ mph to virtually every medium size city in the country. For a trip in an average SE personal aircraft (doing maybe 140 mph) you need to travel well over 250 miles just to break even with ground transportation covering comparable ground. Costing out both (just operating cost, mind you) air approx twice that of land.
2. Small airports disappearing
This is happening mostly in dense areas right now (NE US) but will spread over time as our country continues to fill out. Why?? you ask?? The same reason drive in theaters died 20 years ago. Land values vis the income generated but the business using them. Sure many airport are municipal owned but many more are private, especially the smallest one. The less airports there are, the less convenient for the traveler (not as close to desired destination or farther from departure point) hence a viscus spiral, less traffic, less income (for the airport and its tenets) less income requires higher fees from the remaining users, driving out even more discretionary users (read: causal fun fliers).
3. Lack of innovation in the industry
Some will disagree, but what has the GA industry (specifically engine manufacturers) down to improve the product?? Well avionics aside, not much. Yes plastic planes are finally pushing the 60+ year old technology aside, but were is the increased efficiency?? Boeing and Airbus are forced by the marketplace to offer better fuel efficiency on every new model they produce. The amount of fuel burned per passenger is a sizable fraction of what first generation airliners used especially comparing jets to jets. What improvements have Lycoming and Continental offered from say the 1950's to today's engine?? I wait for the response. If if less that double the HP (or decrease in specific fuel burn per HP) than you have laid down on the job. Today's (new) aircraft compete in the marketplace with aircraft 10, 20 30 years older providing comparative economy at triple or more the cost, makes buy new hard(er) to justify.
There are more reasons why GA is in decline but the above highlights the "major players" in its inevitable decline. Sure some parts of the country will see it happen later, possibly much later but the dream of William Piper and Clyde (?) Cessna that everyone (could) own and fly is far from reality and is destined to be no more than a novelty for true die hards and the rich.
1. The advent of the interstate highway system.
The interstate highways system allows anyone with a (cheep) land vehicle to move effortless at 65+ mph to virtually every medium size city in the country. For a trip in an average SE personal aircraft (doing maybe 140 mph) you need to travel well over 250 miles just to break even with ground transportation covering comparable ground. Costing out both (just operating cost, mind you) air approx twice that of land.
2. Small airports disappearing
This is happening mostly in dense areas right now (NE US) but will spread over time as our country continues to fill out. Why?? you ask?? The same reason drive in theaters died 20 years ago. Land values vis the income generated but the business using them. Sure many airport are municipal owned but many more are private, especially the smallest one. The less airports there are, the less convenient for the traveler (not as close to desired destination or farther from departure point) hence a viscus spiral, less traffic, less income (for the airport and its tenets) less income requires higher fees from the remaining users, driving out even more discretionary users (read: causal fun fliers).
3. Lack of innovation in the industry
Some will disagree, but what has the GA industry (specifically engine manufacturers) down to improve the product?? Well avionics aside, not much. Yes plastic planes are finally pushing the 60+ year old technology aside, but were is the increased efficiency?? Boeing and Airbus are forced by the marketplace to offer better fuel efficiency on every new model they produce. The amount of fuel burned per passenger is a sizable fraction of what first generation airliners used especially comparing jets to jets. What improvements have Lycoming and Continental offered from say the 1950's to today's engine?? I wait for the response. If if less that double the HP (or decrease in specific fuel burn per HP) than you have laid down on the job. Today's (new) aircraft compete in the marketplace with aircraft 10, 20 30 years older providing comparative economy at triple or more the cost, makes buy new hard(er) to justify.
There are more reasons why GA is in decline but the above highlights the "major players" in its inevitable decline. Sure some parts of the country will see it happen later, possibly much later but the dream of William Piper and Clyde (?) Cessna that everyone (could) own and fly is far from reality and is destined to be no more than a novelty for true die hards and the rich.
08-24-2006, 08:35 PM
#4
Self Employed.
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Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
Yup
Originally Posted by dckozak
General aviation's decline is not hard to understand if you look at the underlying trends in society today.
1. The advent of the interstate highway system.
The interstate highways system allows anyone with a (cheep) land vehicle to move effortless at 65+ mph to virtually every medium size city in the country. For a trip in an average SE personal aircraft (doing maybe 140 mph) you need to travel well over 250 miles just to break even with ground transportation covering comparable ground. Costing out both (just operating cost, mind you) air approx twice that of land.
2. Small airports disappearing
This is happening mostly in dense areas right now (NE US) but will spread over time as our country continues to fill out. Why?? you ask?? The same reason drive in theaters died 20 years ago. Land values vis the income generated but the business using them. Sure many airport are municipal owned but many more are private, especially the smallest one. The less airports there are, the less convenient for the traveler (not as close to desired destination or farther from departure point) hence a viscus spiral, less traffic, less income (for the airport and its tenets) less income requires higher fees from the remaining users, driving out even more discretionary users (read: causal fun fliers).
3. Lack of innovation in the industry
Some will disagree, but what has the GA industry (specifically engine manufacturers) down to improve the product?? Well avionics aside, not much. Yes plastic planes are finally pushing the 60+ year old technology aside, but were is the increased efficiency?? Boeing and Airbus are forced by the marketplace to offer better fuel efficiency on every new model they produce. The amount of fuel burned per passenger is a sizable fraction of what first generation airliners used especially comparing jets to jets. What improvements have Lycoming and Continental offered from say the 1950's to today's engine?? I wait for the response. If if less that double the HP (or decrease in specific fuel burn per HP) than you have laid down on the job. Today's (new) aircraft compete in the marketplace with aircraft 10, 20 30 years older providing comparative economy at triple or more the cost, makes buy new hard(er) to justify.
There are more reasons why GA is in decline but the above highlights the "major players" in its inevitable decline. Sure some parts of the country will see it happen later, possibly much later but the dream of William Piper and Clyde (?) Cessna that everyone (could) own and fly is far from reality and is destined to be no more than a novelty for true die hards and the rich.
1. The advent of the interstate highway system.
The interstate highways system allows anyone with a (cheep) land vehicle to move effortless at 65+ mph to virtually every medium size city in the country. For a trip in an average SE personal aircraft (doing maybe 140 mph) you need to travel well over 250 miles just to break even with ground transportation covering comparable ground. Costing out both (just operating cost, mind you) air approx twice that of land.
2. Small airports disappearing
This is happening mostly in dense areas right now (NE US) but will spread over time as our country continues to fill out. Why?? you ask?? The same reason drive in theaters died 20 years ago. Land values vis the income generated but the business using them. Sure many airport are municipal owned but many more are private, especially the smallest one. The less airports there are, the less convenient for the traveler (not as close to desired destination or farther from departure point) hence a viscus spiral, less traffic, less income (for the airport and its tenets) less income requires higher fees from the remaining users, driving out even more discretionary users (read: causal fun fliers).
3. Lack of innovation in the industry
Some will disagree, but what has the GA industry (specifically engine manufacturers) down to improve the product?? Well avionics aside, not much. Yes plastic planes are finally pushing the 60+ year old technology aside, but were is the increased efficiency?? Boeing and Airbus are forced by the marketplace to offer better fuel efficiency on every new model they produce. The amount of fuel burned per passenger is a sizable fraction of what first generation airliners used especially comparing jets to jets. What improvements have Lycoming and Continental offered from say the 1950's to today's engine?? I wait for the response. If if less that double the HP (or decrease in specific fuel burn per HP) than you have laid down on the job. Today's (new) aircraft compete in the marketplace with aircraft 10, 20 30 years older providing comparative economy at triple or more the cost, makes buy new hard(er) to justify.
There are more reasons why GA is in decline but the above highlights the "major players" in its inevitable decline. Sure some parts of the country will see it happen later, possibly much later but the dream of William Piper and Clyde (?) Cessna that everyone (could) own and fly is far from reality and is destined to be no more than a novelty for true die hards and the rich.
Skyhigh
08-25-2006, 02:31 AM
#5
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2005
Position: CR7 Capt
Posts: 1,621
Yeah, We notcied it in the northeast. Fewer operations means the tower is in the area of yearly operations that they may consider closing it. The positive out of it is that maybe fewer pilots training will equal less supply and more demand therefore higher salaries for those who stuck it out.
08-25-2006, 04:04 AM
#6
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2005
Position: Glass
Posts: 254
its not because of a decrease in interest. i did a recent study on this in which i surveyed over 800 pilots in the northeast area. the subjects were lineman at FBO's, flight school owners, instructors, and current GA pilots. The biggest conclusion we came up with is that many people just dont have the time to be able to do it. GA used to be an alternative means to getting on an airliner and going to and from, especially for short haul. many people now use the regional airline system to do these trips. let's not kid ourselves here, aside from the hassle of TSA (which is a good thing believe it or not), it is faster and much cheaper than say, owning a 172 or warrior, fueling it yourself, worrying about the flying, and the auxiliaries that come with it. someone said earlier about the highway system. thats not the reason because no one wants to go sit in traffic especially here in the northeast. commercial flight is safe because of time constraints placed on people. if you aee under time pressure, you fly. if your time is worht a lot of money, you flight corporate.
GA is dissappearing, but only because of how americans live their lives... how much money can i make in how much time.
GA is dissappearing, but only because of how americans live their lives... how much money can i make in how much time.
08-25-2006, 04:53 AM
#8
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Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
Pilots
Originally Posted by ERJ135
Yeah, We notcied it in the northeast. Fewer operations means the tower is in the area of yearly operations that they may consider closing it. The positive out of it is that maybe fewer pilots training will equal less supply and more demand therefore higher salaries for those who stuck it out.
SKyHigh
08-25-2006, 05:00 AM
#9
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,242
True...Loans make it much easier to go for it as a career right from day one.
Hobby flying is expensive...I know from having tried it for a year. I gave up - now I'm waiting to retire and attend a academy full-time.
-LAFF
Hobby flying is expensive...I know from having tried it for a year. I gave up - now I'm waiting to retire and attend a academy full-time.
-LAFF
08-25-2006, 05:07 AM
#10
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2006
Position: BE-20, RA390
Posts: 644
Instant happiness
In one report I read, someone blamed the need for instant gratification in people today. His argument was learning to fly takes time, and people would rather jump in and go. There are other hobbies that require less time to get proficient in.
I don't think this is a big part of the reason, but when you compound it with the expense it makes sense.
I don't think this is a big part of the reason, but when you compound it with the expense it makes sense.
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