In the 1960s, UAL was hiring high school students with a PPL.

There is already a shortage now. 2 years ago 747-400 PICs got $16K/month in China. Now $22K, and the $16K salary is reserved for Airbus capts. ERJ-145 Capts get $12K/month.

Colgan IS having trouble filling classes. ALL the regionals have reduced their mins. Our mins were 4000TT and 1000 PIC Jet. After about 3 or 4 months it dropped to 2500 TT and 1000 Turbine TT.

I just talked to a SkyWest Capt, and he said they were having no problems NOW, but that was going to change soon. He said his buddy is a FltInstr, and pretty much every FltInstr he new was training foreign students-no US students.

The Flight/Duty/Rest rules will be in effect before 1 Aug, and the ATP requirement in effect by 1 Aug 2012.

DAL has 900 pilots retiring in one calendar year....may have to move the age to 70, or get rid of it.

I am almost certain that the major airlines will have to start an Ab-Initio type of hiring/training, just like the US mil and most of the foreign airlines have. Here in the US (and Canada/Australia), we have supplied the world with pilots for a LOT of years. That will soon be coming to an end. Probably a LOT of flying will move to mainline, because there won't be enough Regional pilots, and the Ab-Initio programs required will be too expensive for them. If you were a typical HS kid, would you rather to Ab-Initio for UAL, or for Trans States?

cliff
AMS
PS-I didn't even realize how bad the situation is at some of the airlines now!!!

 

Hate to be that guy, but isnt the ATP rule Aug 2013, not 2012? If anything, that gives the airlines some time to hire the sub 1000 hour pilots (like it or not, 500 hour hiring seems to be coming again) before the rule takes effect (although the pilots need the ATP BEFORE Aug 1 2013) but a year into the start of the age 65 retirees.

I've heard this phrase, "Ab-Initio" thrown around a lot and I am not quite sure of its meaning regarding aviation. Would that be like Multi-Crew or would that be an airline taking in people and going from 0-ATP?

 

From Wiki:
From my understanding it means a company takes on a new/fresh/untrained person and provides them the required training from step one; train them as you want them from scratch.
Others on here say that it has been tried (or a close form of it - extremely low time hires), yet isn't in practice anymore which means that it must not have been found to be a good practice for US airlines.

USMCFLYR

 

2013 is correct.

The airlines don't like ab-initio, as it costs them too much money. They'd rather have us do our own initial training, and then do PFT.

Energy prices ARE high, and oil will only go higher and higher, until we stop using oil as a transportation fuel. Once oil is drastically reduced in cars/trucks, combined with bio-jet fuel, it will really help the airlines be stabilized as far as fuel prices go.

 

It is not about it being a good practice or not, it is about it being necessary or not. Supply and demand and of course cost is what determines if ab initio programs are rule or exception, many airlines world wide hire personnel directly from high school and they look for the right person first and teach them how to fly later but these airlines are not as concerned about the cost of training of an individual as much as they are in hiring an individual with the right attitude and social demeanor to keep for an expand of 40 years. Training at these airlines are equivalent to college degrees and they are in training for 4 years before they even join the line, first they go through all their ratings and turbine transition and after that is when they join the actual academy (at about 400 to 500 hours) where they will spend the next 3 years learning the operation and doing hundreds of simulator hours before they even fly the actual airplane on the line, while all along earning their entire salary as a first officer and not some reduced training salary.

Oil has been rising in price since the first drop emerged from the ground and the argument that it will affect air travel has been around since it was considered ridiculous to fly from NYC to DC since there is a train that covers that route and the journey is a lot more pleasurable taking in the scenery. If history tends to repeat itself, air travel has always increase after economical downturns

 

This would be entirely acceptable, and has various benefits...

- Reasonable compensation. If they expect you to focus on an intensive multi-year program they will have to pay enough for you to live on from day one, or at least provide room, board, and allowance.

- Airline sponsored ab-initio programs would be highly appealing to young people, and would attract top talent. This would improve the "gene pool" of the airlines.

- Kids with options in life will not put up with too much BS, at least not for long. This would spell the end of airline's supplementing their payrolls with food stamps.

- You could get them educated about and involved in a union early on.

- They would have an incentive to see their airline succeed long-term.

Possible downsides...

- Book smarts and street smarts are two different things, and pilots need some of both. It's easy to screen for the former, not so much the later. You could work around this by placing recruiting emphasis on team sports players, kids with a PPL, etc.

- We would lose the benefit we get from having a lot of General Aviation depth in the airline biz. This is irrelevant in most countries where the military and airlines are the only things which get to fly (other than a few millionaires with toys), but GA is very significant here in the US. For this reason I think the airlines should continue to hire as many GA and military pilots as possible.


Also I think in the US you would need a college degree before entering such a program. We have a slightly different mentality on that compared to Europe.

 

I started this new thread out of the "hard to fill classes" thread.

 

The regionals JUST started hiring again after almost 3 years of cutting capacity, furloughing, no hiring at all levels etc. etc. 3 years worth of CFIs, and new CPLs issued of kids dieing to get into the regionals.. on top of the ones who didn't make it in the last wave, or started training in that time.

Some places haven't even brought their furloughs back yet.

And ALREADY there are talks on here about a pilot shortage.. oo yea... it's coming..... really this time... not like last time... or the time before that time..

Bring yourselves back down to earth.

 

Interesting conjecture from all sides. A little wishful thinking by some.

What's real and the current reality is that it's finally becoming a decent time to be an airline pilot.

Has anyone considered the last time that happened from a global perspective?

I think Pan Am was flying four engined turbojet Boeings with engineers.

Hang in there lads. We will see if your right soon enough.

 

Actually, go back to 2006/2007. Before the spike in oil prices, the economy fell apart and the "Fair Treatment for Experienced Pilots Act", age 60 retirements were accelerating and that attrition was driving movement from regionals to mainline and within regionals themselves.

Before that, go back to 1997-Sept. 2001 - the introduction of the contemporary 500hr pilot.