Your job is safe, your kids job is safe and your grandkids job is safe too.

 

........at least from unmanned airliners.

 

True statement

 

It seems like you are stating that the government had not been involved in aviation until the creation of the FAA. Prior to the FAA we had the CAA and the NACA (predecessor to NASA), prior to that there was the Aeronautics Board. We also had the Airmail Act of 1925, which basically established commercial airlines through the use of Post Office contracts, these contracts would pay more for aircraft that could fly further, at night, etc. Not to mention the Air Commerce Act of 1926, which allowed organizations such as the Aeronautics Board, CAA, and FAA to be created. The U.S. Government has been involved in the aviation industry since its inception.

I agree with RickAir, it will be awhile before the infrastructure is established to allow for pilotless aircraft. You need more than just airports to have unmanned airliners, and the cost of that alone would be prohibitive to "fix" a system that is not broken, let alone to maintain that system. It becomes even more cost prohibitive when you consider international flights.

 

Like I said, thumbnail. I am aware of the history of government supervision of aviation. My hypothesis is that regulatory oversight crossed the threshold from constructive to intrusive some time in the 1950s. That transition could be measured in dollars spent by the FAA, by pages of regulations in the federal register, or something else. In any event, aviation in the 1950s began to advance more along the lines of quantitative advances, rather than qualitative (revolutionary) advances. It's just a theory, but it is what I think.

Pilotless vehicles make much more sense as a family size enterprise--the risk is almost entirely assumed by the operator/owner and the smaller size makes emergency accomodations much more feasible. However, our supervisors in the gov't don't like cars and they'd like individual skycars even less.

WW

 

Ten years ago I would have been a little worried about my kid's career, but after watching the FAA flail with NEXTGEN and observing how the military UAV programs developed I'm convinced it won't be this century.

 

So true. NEXTGEN is simple to implement; unmanned vehicles, not so much.

 

I like the 100 year estimate. Maybe a little sooner but who really knows WHEN.

I think it has already started in the military, and gaining ground at warp speed. Sadly, the days of carrier aviation are numbered. In the next 40-50 years there will be no more people taking off and landing on boats, the $$$ will win out on that. Fighters, bombers, recon will all become automated and/or controled from ship or ground based stations.

Frieght will become the first single piloted and eventually un manned aircraft comercially operated. For pax, it will work down to single pilot with a dispatcher/co pilot working and monitoring the flight(s) from their ground station. This will lead to un manned commercial pax carriers. Remember in the future people will grow to implicably trust computers more and more, and our human error less and less. Our kids kids will grow up totally emersed in a very, VERY techno savy culture and to board an airplane where they see a guy in charge in the front, then all the doors shut and they don't see anyone till they land, they will be ok with that (no too unlike we do today is it?).

Honestly the biggest challenge will be the people searving drinks and snacks in the back that can lead if there is some type of incident......

 

I proposed the idea to this thread to encourage group discussion as well as generate ideas for a Movie I am writing.

In this movie a disgruntled and underpaid software engineer that created the Unmanned airliner's artificial intelligence decides to sell the software technology to a terrorist organization. This allows the terrorists to hijack every single unmanned airliner. This includes 600+ airplanes in my story. I'm just looking for a realistic timeline for this to take place.

Sorry if the idea of terrorist hijackings offends but the movies that sell tickets have some kind of messed up characters trying to cause havoc.

 

Technology-wise it's entirely possible right now if you're willing to spend huge amounts of money and accept a reduction in safety margins in those areas where human adaptability cannot be modeled by artificial intelligence (unforseen mechaniccal problems like Sioux City or the art of Wx avoidance using a radar and ATC hints).

For fiction you could go with 2025.