Pilot Shortage
#32
Some people in the above society have PhDs in Earth Science, and Physics...
#33
While I don't think there is any such thing as a paradigm shift in economics (New Economy anyone?), I do think the airline industry is in a major cycle transition:
1. Obviously the primary driver is the retirements that are hitting and will continue to increase and remain high over the next decade. No one disputes this.
2. The military is not producing nearly as many pilots as it used to. This one is not as obvious, but most people out there, pilots and non-pilots alike, do not appreciate how drastically our military pilot pool has shrunk over the decades. WW2 produced tons of pilots, as did the Cold War, and many of these pilots went onto airline careers (see #1). Then the Cold War ended (my freshman year of college) and our military has steadily reduced the number of cockpits and pilots ever since. Bottom line: the airline industry historically has depended on just about 50% of their pilot force to come from the military. That is no longer the case, and will remain so for a very long time if not forever.
3. The economy under Trump, love him or hate him, is the best it has ever been, period. We are not in a bubble such as the 90's tech bubble or the 00's housing bubble. This boom does not appear to be sustained by any one particular sector of the economy. I reserve the right to be wrong on this one, but I think that Trump's policy of removing business-strangling regulations that have piled up over the decades is at the core of this; our economy is simply adjusting for a reduction in red tape and over-regulation. Again, I reserve the right to be wrong.
What this adds up to is a perfect storm for an airline pilot shortage: you have large numbers of pilots that have to leave the ranks due to mandatory retirement, you have a supply shortage from the military pilot ranks, and a booming economy in which the majors are consistently talking about expanding (i.e., more cockpits to fill).
It's a good time to be in this industry.
While I agree that the oil market is generally cyclical, and that OPEC can play their games to affect prices, I do think that fracking and the resurgence of the American oil industry is a game changer. Something I noticed this entire year is that oil never went above $70 a barrel, despite the prediction that it would. I can't help but think that fracking has indeed brought a stability to the oil markets that it has lacked. And it is now here for the long term. Again, I reserve the right to be wrong.
1. Obviously the primary driver is the retirements that are hitting and will continue to increase and remain high over the next decade. No one disputes this.
2. The military is not producing nearly as many pilots as it used to. This one is not as obvious, but most people out there, pilots and non-pilots alike, do not appreciate how drastically our military pilot pool has shrunk over the decades. WW2 produced tons of pilots, as did the Cold War, and many of these pilots went onto airline careers (see #1). Then the Cold War ended (my freshman year of college) and our military has steadily reduced the number of cockpits and pilots ever since. Bottom line: the airline industry historically has depended on just about 50% of their pilot force to come from the military. That is no longer the case, and will remain so for a very long time if not forever.
3. The economy under Trump, love him or hate him, is the best it has ever been, period. We are not in a bubble such as the 90's tech bubble or the 00's housing bubble. This boom does not appear to be sustained by any one particular sector of the economy. I reserve the right to be wrong on this one, but I think that Trump's policy of removing business-strangling regulations that have piled up over the decades is at the core of this; our economy is simply adjusting for a reduction in red tape and over-regulation. Again, I reserve the right to be wrong.
What this adds up to is a perfect storm for an airline pilot shortage: you have large numbers of pilots that have to leave the ranks due to mandatory retirement, you have a supply shortage from the military pilot ranks, and a booming economy in which the majors are consistently talking about expanding (i.e., more cockpits to fill).
It's a good time to be in this industry.
While I agree that the oil market is generally cyclical, and that OPEC can play their games to affect prices, I do think that fracking and the resurgence of the American oil industry is a game changer. Something I noticed this entire year is that oil never went above $70 a barrel, despite the prediction that it would. I can't help but think that fracking has indeed brought a stability to the oil markets that it has lacked. And it is now here for the long term. Again, I reserve the right to be wrong.
#34
For the AVERAGE American, probably 1947 was the "Best" economy, because the average worker got the highest % of income every in the history of the US. About 30% of US non-farm workers were in a Union, which meant that wages for union, and even non-union employees, were about the highest that they've ever been.
#35
SkyWest is hiring Australians on temporary visas, because they don't have enough. They are also hiring anyone who failed out of SkyWest training, or didn't pass the interview.
Almost every regional has hiring and/or retention bonuses, becasue they don't have enough pilots.
#36
Disinterested Third Party
Joined APC: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,021
Simply because trump says it does not make it so.
#37
I have somewhere old Flying magazines filled with ads by UA, EA and AA seeking applicants to fly for them even offering training. That’s a shortage.
GF
#38
You might note the increase in US oil production using fracking technology after years of production declines.
GF
Last edited by galaxy flyer; 10-11-2018 at 07:16 AM.
#39
#40
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,022
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