A rate of 50% to be sustained. Unfortunately for QX pilots that is not going to happen. The last few months were an attempt by AG to try and bring some legitimacy to the program after nearly a year of promises. AG’s next move will be 1 or 2 QX pathwayers per class. Keep in mind that the sole reason for Pathways is a recruiting tool. As long as recruits buy in, it will stay that way.

Don’t you think that would be counter productive? IMHO, they will have to strike a delicate balance to keep qualified pilots coming in.

It’s an interesting situation. They’re going to bleed experienced pilots either way. Wouldn’t it be better to attract pilots whose end goal is to fly for Alaska? That way they can keep those pilots for a time and have at least some control over how fast they leave.

If the pathway loses credibility I think they’ll have more difficulty recruiting.

What makes you think this fivebyfive?

[QUOTE=BigfatQ;2719211]What makes you think this fivebyfive?[/QUOTE

Pathways isn’t about AS needing qualified candidates to fill its classes. The shortage hasn’t hit the majors yet. Just a great sales pitch to keep QX staffed. Unfortunately for QX, they just lost half of their most valuable check airman in this first round. Oops! Didn’t see that coming. And with a bunch of new jets on the way. If stringing things out with 1 or 2 per class doesn’t work, AG will pull the plug on Pathways completely.

Describe for me a model where management benefits more than delaying pilot career progression as much as possible. Where they pay out less to fill seats than if they keep regional pilots in the cheap seats as long as possible before resetting their seniority and starting them all over again at the bottom.

Yes, they do have to deal with market forces, but the longer they can delay upgrading young people and the more retired military they can jam in to the system ahead of the 26 year old with 1000 CFI hours and 2000 121 hours, the more money they DON'T have to spend on pilot salary at the very highest pay rates.

All the economic incentives for management are to do no more for their regional guys career progression than they absolutely must.

🙄
Ok, so to clear up confusion, the 2% growth figure isn't necessarily a pilot seniority list number and in fact is often a rasm number or total revenue number.

As to "half go to military," that's so much conjecture. Yup, some hires are former military, but more often those veteran pilots have prior 121 time after accounting for qx pathways candidates.

They could absolutely shut down the pathway. There’s no doubt about it but I think to shut it down or to even slow it down to a trickle won’t bode well for their recruiting strategy.

I agree that filling seats at Alaska isn’t the problem here(I think you implied that). We know that QX wants more CA’s and I’ve heard they also want more intructors/check airman etc. A lack of qualified pilots in the left seat is literally keeping them from flying as much as they would like to. Draining their ranks of qualified CA’s hurts the operation to some extent, at least the way things are now.

My guess here is they’d ideally like to see pilots come to QX, get their time and upgrade, spend a couple of years as CA’s and then move on(pilots are going to be moving on whether they go to AS or another major anyway). If they’re able to retain just enough pilots willing to stay on as CA’s for a stint and to contribute as instructors etc they’ll have what they need to keep the operation running well.

Alaska needs to hire pilots that will stay long enough to upgrade and fly as CA’s also but perhaps not long enough to hit the top of the pay scale. There’s probably a sweet spot agewise in regards to this. I don’t get the impression though that the majors seek to hire only middle aged pilots. They hire a wide range of ages. I don’t think this is as big a concern at the majors. Correct me if I’m wildly innacurate here.

If I were in management I would be seeking to attract young pilots to QX that have a desire to remain on the west coast and see Alaska as a top choice. I would want to be able to control the movement of QX pilots to AS so that there is enough movement to maintain confidence in the pathway yet not at the same time devastate QX by depleting their stock of experienced and productive pilots.

If QX was to shut down the pathway or even slow it down too much, they will lose credibility amongst the young new pilots that they, let’s face it, desperately need to fill the ranks. All of the regionals are fighting to attract young pilots. Shutting down the pathway would be a bad move.

1. The 2% increase in size of the Alaska Pilot group was a "best case" scenario to avoid people quibbling about it. Barring medical issues, I imagine the vast majority of Alaska pilots with more than a few years seniority will stay to retirement, and those retirements would be the only vacancies that would with certainty have to be filled once a certain seniority threshold has been crossed.

2. Historically, retired military have been VERY competitive. But I'd agree, OLDER pilots with experience are nearly equally desirable because, like the retired military, their average pay to fill those seats will be significantly less because if the shorter duration they are at max pay compared to some twenty-five year old who would spend most of their career as a very senior captain. Hiring two retired O-5s (or other similarly qualified 45 year-olds) sequentially is a significant savings over one 25 year old. And what is more, there is a ripple effect. Every extra year that the junior person can be kept at the regional rather than the major saves Alaska money when they do eventually flow. AND THIS RIPPLES DOWN THROUGH THE WHOLE REGIONAL SENIORITY SYSTEM. Slowing down progression by slowing down the flow through injecting as many older pilots as possible in above the flow personnel keeps to a minimum the number of pilots being paid the highest pay rate, and trust me, the financial management people are well aware of this.

Yes, well said.

Fivebyfive called it.

Only 4 pathway pilots are being taken for the month of January out of 3 classes consisting of 12-20 each.

What a sham.