1st/2nd year practical issues
04-29-2018 | 06:18 PM
#61
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2006
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04-29-2018 | 06:20 PM
#62
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 3,274
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From: 190 captain and “Pro-pilot”
How long is the interview process taking these days? Is it still a 6-8 month marathon waiting on Phase 2 and then sitting in the pool? I'm kind of hoping so. I have an interview and quite frankly I'd like a contract in place before I got a class date. No contract and I probably won't take a job if offered.
Just make sure you tell them that.
04-29-2018 | 06:25 PM
#63
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 3,274
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From: 190 captain and “Pro-pilot”
We don't have 5-7% seniority list growth. We have 5-7% ASM growth because we are adding seats to our A320s and taking delivery of 10-13 planes a year. The proper number to look at is our delivery schedule. The hiring numbers recently posted show a goal of 265 this year, less attrition, which will result in rough 150-200 added to a 3600 deep seniority list. Thats between 4-5% growth.
The best way to look at our growth is to multiply our deliveries by 14, the number at which we staff our airline. 10 deliveries this year, 13 next, and 13 the next. If we give back any of our E190s when the leases expire, that could negate any Airbus delivery seniority list growth.
By my napkin math, we have 93 airplanes remaining to be delivered by 2024. By that time, some of our oldest A320s will be long in the tooth, and probably ready for retirement/replacement/lease return/etc., so there's a very good possibility that we won't have a net gain of 93 airplanes. I also highly doubt by 2024 that the 60 E190s currently on property will still be on property. Whether or not they are replaced at a 1:1 ratio with E195E2/CS100/CS300s is to be seen.
The fleet review will be very telling of the future of this airline. Without growth, this place is going to be a terrible place to hang your hat for anyone hired in the last year or two, and certainly going forward.
Worst case I can think of is the E190s go away, or at least the 30 leases that will be up in the next few years, some old leased A320s get returned, and we stay around 3,500-4,000 pilots, with little attrition over the next decade. Best case: we get a contract that requires more staffing per plane, we keep 60 100-130 seat airplanes, keep all our airbuses, and the 93 airbuses to be delivered all make it here on time. That would put us at 5,000-5,500 pilots by 2024.
So could be 5-10% growth over the next 7 years, or 30-40% growth. Do you gamble with legacy retirements (minus age 67 stalling that for a couple years) with good contracts, or gamble with labor-hating, no contract jetblue with possible growth? Tough call. Hope it works out for us.
The best way to look at our growth is to multiply our deliveries by 14, the number at which we staff our airline. 10 deliveries this year, 13 next, and 13 the next. If we give back any of our E190s when the leases expire, that could negate any Airbus delivery seniority list growth.
By my napkin math, we have 93 airplanes remaining to be delivered by 2024. By that time, some of our oldest A320s will be long in the tooth, and probably ready for retirement/replacement/lease return/etc., so there's a very good possibility that we won't have a net gain of 93 airplanes. I also highly doubt by 2024 that the 60 E190s currently on property will still be on property. Whether or not they are replaced at a 1:1 ratio with E195E2/CS100/CS300s is to be seen.
The fleet review will be very telling of the future of this airline. Without growth, this place is going to be a terrible place to hang your hat for anyone hired in the last year or two, and certainly going forward.
Worst case I can think of is the E190s go away, or at least the 30 leases that will be up in the next few years, some old leased A320s get returned, and we stay around 3,500-4,000 pilots, with little attrition over the next decade. Best case: we get a contract that requires more staffing per plane, we keep 60 100-130 seat airplanes, keep all our airbuses, and the 93 airbuses to be delivered all make it here on time. That would put us at 5,000-5,500 pilots by 2024.
So could be 5-10% growth over the next 7 years, or 30-40% growth. Do you gamble with legacy retirements (minus age 67 stalling that for a couple years) with good contracts, or gamble with labor-hating, no contract jetblue with possible growth? Tough call. Hope it works out for us.
I would say the biggest “add” to the pilot numbers would be a contract. (If we get one) The current work rules and vacation allocation allow them to get by with way less pilots than we would need if we went to industry standard. After that yeah it’s getting more planes.
04-29-2018 | 08:34 PM
#64
Gets Everyday Off
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 6,995
Likes: 1
From: Fully Retired
As hiring increases (likely double or triple the 2017 numbers) when AA hits their sustained peak in a few years, where will the hires come from?
1. Major increase in number of Flows from AA’s 3 WOs? Already the WOs are having difficulty upgrading FO to CA fast enough to meet current flows.
2. Major increase in Military fliers just being discharged? This assumes lots of Military fliers currently want to get hired but just cannot find a pilot position, so they just give up and get into some other job.
3.Major increase in OTS Civilian hires. If the first two do not see sufficient increases to cover the additional hire requirements, the 9% OTS Civilian will increase to a bigger percentage than just 9%.
04-30-2018 | 06:01 AM
#65
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,047
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From: B6
Sigh. Please stop HB. It is around 3% airframe growth and slowing. We are growing SEATS because we are buying 321 and upgauging our current fleet, not bringing 7% more planes and pilots.
Bottom line, 12 years until you are 50% of the list here. That is IF we dont defer more planes, like we have the past 2 years...
Bottom line, 12 years until you are 50% of the list here. That is IF we dont defer more planes, like we have the past 2 years...
04-30-2018 | 06:10 AM
#66
Not A Janitor
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 814
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Fact is... JB is stagnant. Yeah, there's a little movement. A handful of upgrades every quarter for those who wish to sit reserve for the foreseeable future. Most of your seniority progress will happen in the first 2 years when people above you figure out they made a mistake by coming to JB and leave.
04-30-2018 | 06:14 AM
#67
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Joined: May 2013
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"All you said" was spewing overly rosy #keepsgettingbetter numbers that are inaccurate and misleading to people who aren't already here to know better than to believe your cheerleading posts.
Fact is... JB is stagnant. Yeah, there's a little movement. A handful of upgrades every quarter for those who wish to sit reserve for the foreseeable future. Most of your seniority progress will happen in the first 2 years when people above you figure out they made a mistake by coming to JB and leave.
Fact is... JB is stagnant. Yeah, there's a little movement. A handful of upgrades every quarter for those who wish to sit reserve for the foreseeable future. Most of your seniority progress will happen in the first 2 years when people above you figure out they made a mistake by coming to JB and leave.
Management has dropped the ball in regards to this pilot group.
SOP FUPM
04-30-2018 | 06:29 AM
#68
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 332
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"All you said" was spewing overly rosy #keepsgettingbetter numbers that are inaccurate and misleading to people who aren't already here to know better than to believe your cheerleading posts.
Fact is... JB is stagnant. Yeah, there's a little movement. A handful of upgrades every quarter for those who wish to sit reserve for the foreseeable future. Most of your seniority progress will happen in the first 2 years when people above you figure out they made a mistake by coming to JB and leave.
Fact is... JB is stagnant. Yeah, there's a little movement. A handful of upgrades every quarter for those who wish to sit reserve for the foreseeable future. Most of your seniority progress will happen in the first 2 years when people above you figure out they made a mistake by coming to JB and leave.
04-30-2018 | 06:33 AM
#69
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,047
Likes: 0
From: B6
"All you said" was spewing overly rosy #keepsgettingbetter numbers that are inaccurate and misleading to people who aren't already here to know better than to believe your cheerleading posts.
Fact is... JB is stagnant. Yeah, there's a little movement. A handful of upgrades every quarter for those who wish to sit reserve for the foreseeable future. Most of your seniority progress will happen in the first 2 years when people above you figure out they made a mistake by coming to JB and leave.
Fact is... JB is stagnant. Yeah, there's a little movement. A handful of upgrades every quarter for those who wish to sit reserve for the foreseeable future. Most of your seniority progress will happen in the first 2 years when people above you figure out they made a mistake by coming to JB and leave.
04-30-2018 | 06:37 AM
#70
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 332
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Stagnant means NO movement. When you got here the movement was the same as it is now (5-7%) 250 pilots a year. You still came here right. So who is spewing lies. Also attrition is very low. That is a fact. Yet you say I am inaccurate. I am actually just telling the truth. Like it or not.
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