Absolutely this 👆🏻 100%. Can’t predict the future, but all indications are we going to enter a major economic recession (or worse)beginning in the spring of 2023. Airline pilots seem like they’re the only ones oblivious to this.

 

This industry is too volatile, you can make all the predictions you want but it can and will change in an instant. Leave the regionals and go somewhere that you can be happy having a career at should the worst happen.

 

Cmon guys…stop acting as if you can predict when the next recession will happen.
Guess what…..YOU CAN’T. But of course even a broken clock is right twice a day so I’m sure you’ll pat yourself on the back if you happen to be lucky

 

I think most black swan events hit you out of nowhere and something you never see coming. 9/11 and Covid (even with all the PSP relief bills) come to mind.

 

To be clear I’m not predicting anything, but many financial experts are. Seems to be a perfect storm brewing to initiate a collapse. Like I said, pilots seem oblivious.

 

You mean "experts"

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Nine out of eight times the "experts" can't time the market.

And a lot of the recession-chicken-littles are politically manipulated, who have been told if "their" guy isn't in the White House, a recession will surely follow. They are even less reliable than the financial "experts".

Now of course, a broken clock is still right twice a day, and recessions are normal and regular/cyclical phenomenon, and the US is overdue for one, having just had one of the strongest and longest bull markets in history, spanning 3 presidential administrations. And yet the planes are still full and the consumer is still too strong for the feds metrics.

Is a recession coming? Probably. Will it be more than a garden variety recession? Maybe, maybe not.

 

+1 for “get to any reasonable major as quickly as possible and THEN figure out your career goals.”

 

Delta has hired 23-25yrs old with no TPIC. It happens more often than before.

Hiring 200 a month, they said until march, then will go down to 100, but rumors are they will continue with the higher number until end of 2023.

 

The above statement is completely incorrect.
I know because I have 0 TPIC and recently interviewed at a legacy airline.
Prior to the actual interviews, a captain in the recruiting department welcomed us and had us all introduce ourselves to the group. Many of us were FOs from Spirit, Frontier, or JetBlue, and most of the others were currently at regionals (either captain or FO). By my estimate, between 1/3 and 1/2 of the group had 0 TPIC.

Actually, it is a perfectly good recipe for getting to the legacy airline. I know this because it worked for me.

At 1000 hours at my regional, I had the chance to upgrade… and also received a CJO from JetBlue around the same time. I had to choose which would likely get me to a legacy faster - getting TPIC at a regional, or SIC at JetBlue. I chose to move to JetBlue, and had a CJO from a legacy five months later.

The main reasons for my choice were:

1. If the music stops (industry downturn), and I don’t get to a legacy at all, I would rather be stuck at JetBlue than at a regional. Regionals, after all, can be shut down (or close bases) at any time. JetBlue is independent, financially healthy, and will soon be the fifth largest airline in the country. Wall Street Journal video on Spirit acquisition

2. If I stayed at my wholly-owned regional, I was effectively ineligible for hire at the legacy that owned that regional - they aren’t hiring any captains from their own regional other than by flow. Due to my location, there were only 3 legacy airlines I was applying to,. And I did not want to disqualify myself from one of the three. Leaving the regional was the only way to be eligible for an interview at all three.

(Staying in hopes of using the flow would have required me to stay at the regional for another two years at least. I wasn’t willing to wait that long.)

3. Legacies love to hire pilots away from their competitors: JetBlue, Frontier, and the like. These are, after all, pilots who have passed TWO interviews, TWO background checks, TWO indoc and systems courses, and TWO type rating checkrides! What is the likelihood that they will have trouble getting through AA/DL/UA training?

4. First year pay at JetBlue was no improvement over the pay I’d get for upgrading, but second year FO pay was better than I would make as a regional CA. (This is no longer the case - the regionals all doubled their pay rates since I moved. But I expect JetBlue will soon announce new pay rates that will put them back above regional captain pay.)

My experience is no guarantee. But I’m not the first person in my JetBlue class to get a legacy CJO after arriving.