What do you feel is the likelihood of the merger going through? Spirit stock is around 19 a share with a payout of 33.50 if the merger happens. I don't see why they would block it. Just not sure why the huge discount.

I’d put the likelihood at 60-75%. Everyone else I’ve talked with thinks the likelihood at 80%+.

the discount is imputed risk. Just look at the ride Twitter stock after Elon said he was buying at $44 a share (I think)

Our Congress absolutely cannot be bought!

(But there are sufficient Congresspersons leased that there’s about a 90% chance of enough pressure being put on DOJ to “come to an accommodation” on the sale/merger).

I don’t see any reason it would be blocked. It might come down to b6 management being told that they are either dropping the NEA or the merger

I’m sure JB management is using the NEA as a chip to bargain with. They’ll gladly drop that to get their merger. In my opinion, it seems much easier to argue a case for the merger rather than against it in court. I think I’d give it about 75% likelihood.

same here…

I give it a 69% chance it passes. No particular reason other than I like that number.

Giggity giggity goo.

I was actually thinking of 69.69%.

The Spirit FAs union, AFA, came out publicly this week in support of the B6/NK merger. Current Secretary of Labor, Marty Walsh, is stepping down to go lead the NHLPA. Sara Nelson, president of AFA, is once again being reported as a contender for Secretary of Labor. Even though she's probably too aggressively pro-labor for Biden's taste, it demonstrates the political heft she and AFA have within the Biden administration. Whether that holds any sway with DOJ remains to be seen, but the timing of this announcement of support for the merger before DOJ reportedly sues to block it and while the Secretary Labor job is open adds another layer of intrigue to the issue.