Merger getting blocked
 

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/biden-administration-moving-toward-blocking-jetblue-spirit-merger-politico-2023-02-10/

Wow, and that new contract…

“DOJ likely to sue”…. Might want to change the tittle of your thread. It is as much of a clickbait as is the article you referenced considering a decision hasn’t even been made.

So a few flight attendants were talking on a sit in Newark within ear shot of a reporter with a questionable news agency with a gun to his head from his boss to get a story or be fired.

“Five people with knowledge of the matter” is like hearing about a base closure from a ramper who heard about it from his long lost cousin’s son at a bar.

for some reason, I wouldn’t think too much into this

I’d fully expect a lawsuit on Monday. This is part of the process. It gets dragged out in court and some small concessions are made then it is approved.

There’s no news here. Leadership has been saying all along, internally and externally, that they expect DOJ to sue. DOJ needs to decide if they’re going to let this merger play by the same rules they let DL, AA, WN, AS, and UA play by with their mergers Or suddenly say they’re changing the rules of the game.

As a pilot here, my view is it’s idiocy that DOJ is trying to block us from growing. But then again a lot of what this government does is idiocy.

This merger is different due to AA and JB already being enjoined via NEA, especially where the agreement has JB give up a lot of flying to AA. Should AA be allowed to take over Spirits east coast flying and transcons from the west coast? That seems to be basically what NEA allows for when combined with the JB merger. Jetblue needs to decide what it wants to be- an AA regional, or a national competitor.

JB most likely wants to exit the NEA. Speaking of which, shouldn’t we have a ruling on that? It was supposed to be end of January I thought.

if it was 6 people I might believe this but not 5 :)

pretty sure the lawsuit over the nea where it was approved but now is a problem will settle that.

if if if the administration was really interested in more competitive airlines many they should make the big guys divest some airport assets or slots?

this is all a game (and we all know it)

Tell us you don't understand the NEA without saying you don't understand the NEA.

Bye bye.

This merger is the only hope JB has of surviving as an airline.

Fascinating, tell me more.

a.net is invading APC

Whaaaaaaaaa? It’s like posi traction. Ain’t no one know how that work…. It jist does.

omg now they are here? Never seen a group that dislikes an airline more.

Spirit too.

Some of you guys are way over the top. Take it down a notch.

So which is it? Does B6 “give up a lot of flying to AA?” Or is B6 “an AA regional?”

Stop embarrassing yourself.

We give AA our planned international and wide body growth. Then we fly AA passengers into JFK to get on those big planes. It doesn’t have to be either/or.

We can't get enough planes as is....You think we have A350's waiting in the wings for Tel Aviv and Tokyo service? Which routes is AA flying that we should be?

Go to JetBlue dot com and search for flights from JFK to LHR
Five daily flights are available. One is JetBlue, the other 4 are American.
So there’s four we should be flying for starters.

Newsflash...we kept all of our planned international growth and gave none of it to AA. And this may shock you, but there was never any planned WB growth.

Also United.com will sell you a flight on Lufthansa. That doesn’t mean United will be flying from FRA to HAM ever.

That’s a codeshare. The JFK-LHR with AA/B6 is a joint venture with revenue sharing. Except it’s a unique one, whereby jetblue can sell tickets on AA on that route, but AA can’t sell tickets on jetblue metal on that route. That was part of the design to help get the NEA approved to give the appearance that they are still competing on that route. A little different than UAL selling a ticket from FRA-HAM on Lufthansa.

UA/LH is also a JV.

Let’s do Delta Virgin Atlantic now.

Or Delta and Republic. Not sure why guys get so wound up about scope?

Just checked the alternate universe where we didn't pursue the NEA and you're right. Looking down the line, JB's ability to collect risk free revenue did not affect their decision to make a huge outlay of Capex and pursue potential expansion into widebodies.

Love the sarcasm. You're on a roll. 😂

Years from now? I’m sorry, did we have a pending WB RFP that we halted to pursue the NEA?

Did the NEA also halt our plans to buy Boom supersonic jets? Or open a focus city on Mars? 😂

What do you feel is the likelihood of the merger going through? Spirit stock is around 19 a share with a payout of 33.50 if the merger happens. I don't see why they would block it. Just not sure why the huge discount.

I’d put the likelihood at 60-75%. Everyone else I’ve talked with thinks the likelihood at 80%+.

the discount is imputed risk. Just look at the ride Twitter stock after Elon said he was buying at $44 a share (I think)

Our Congress absolutely cannot be bought!

(But there are sufficient Congresspersons leased that there’s about a 90% chance of enough pressure being put on DOJ to “come to an accommodation” on the sale/merger).

I don’t see any reason it would be blocked. It might come down to b6 management being told that they are either dropping the NEA or the merger

I’m sure JB management is using the NEA as a chip to bargain with. They’ll gladly drop that to get their merger. In my opinion, it seems much easier to argue a case for the merger rather than against it in court. I think I’d give it about 75% likelihood.

same here…

I give it a 69% chance it passes. No particular reason other than I like that number.

Giggity giggity goo.

I was actually thinking of 69.69%.

The Spirit FAs union, AFA, came out publicly this week in support of the B6/NK merger. Current Secretary of Labor, Marty Walsh, is stepping down to go lead the NHLPA. Sara Nelson, president of AFA, is once again being reported as a contender for Secretary of Labor. Even though she's probably too aggressively pro-labor for Biden's taste, it demonstrates the political heft she and AFA have within the Biden administration. Whether that holds any sway with DOJ remains to be seen, but the timing of this announcement of support for the merger before DOJ reportedly sues to block it and while the Secretary Labor job is open adds another layer of intrigue to the issue.