Thank you!!!

 

I read on one of the forums to multiply your payrate effective August 2024 by 1.045

 

On the WB fleet at Delta for 6yrs prior to covid, it's balls to the walls all spring/summer/early fall and then the whole schedule reduces by 30% over the NOV/DEC/JAN/FEB time frame. Most years I could go 4months on reserve in the winter without ever touching actual plane if I wanted to work my sked. But in summer, what little reserve that was offered went very senior as most would maybe fly 40hrs on reserve yet get paid 80. 350 is newer and growing fleet with major manning fluctuations in play.

Now a narrow body pilot slugging it out and have not detected any load reductions yet, although the frequency of trips is slightly reduced from unsustainable to nearly full capacity.

 

I don't have all the answers, obviously. We have seen airlines lose money for a LONG time and take on a LOT of debt (AA) and survive until things improve. But it's notable that the airlines that are doing the best right now are doing so because of the scale and network they achieved through previous mergers... And of course their international networks, which was also largely enhanced through previous mergers.

So JB staying small/independent and just trying to grind it out against these giant airlines, one of which is actively trying to snuff the airline out entirely, I don't think is a viable plan. The mergers have given those big airlines the scale to lose money intentionally on routes they compete with JB, because they can just make it up on all the routes they have a virtual monopoly on in their fortress hubs. I think the best outcome is to get a quick resolution from the courts, and for JB management to do what they have to do to get all JB+NK employees rowing in the same direction while corporate focuses on executing a fleet/network integration the best they can. I believe the recent changes to JB pilot profit sharing is just step one towards a full JB+NK company plan, and if you've had a front row seat to how that transformed the way Delta employees treat their customers it would give you some hope.

Spirit customers are not high value customers, nor are they frequent flyers. We are chasing them or needing them, or even really want them en mass. We will be realigning the product and network to take more of the big 4s customers, and to be more attractive to our own customers.

 

Agree 100%, the question remains how do we truly compete against that? NK merger will be a drop in the bucket when you look at the global alliance networks we will be facing. I still think our best bet is to saddle up with oneworld/AA and leverage our BOS/JFK presence to expand into non-oneworld hubs where NK already has real estate (DTW, IAH, ATL in particular). The oneworld carriers feeding our BOS/JFK hubs would be massive. I also feel AA has seen the value in offloading some of their domestic feed to a separate entity like JB since they won't have to pay/manage a regional carrier on the routes. This could be expanded to ORD/DFW type of flying where NK also coincidentally has bases.

Over time (another 5-7yrs) we have developed a more mature Europe network and join the AA/BA/oneworld TATL JV. After that point we start looking at the Eskimo and hula girl.

 

Sounds like a good plan, the right plan.

 

I don’t JV or one world etc. All JetBlue rev and flying done by JetBlue pilots. Period

 

That's an option, I just think it makes expansion 10x more difficult when going to places where we are still JetWho. I know nobody was a fan of the NEA, but it allowed us to quickly grow into the midwest with support from the AA/oneworld frequent fliers. Since ending the NEA that expansion has been pulled way back and I don't think it will return. We're stuck as a NE-Florida carrier, and yes buying Spirit gives us access to planes/pilots but when they are painted blue we're back to square one in DTW/ORD/DFW/IAH/etc with being JetWho?

Add a simple codeshare with AA with frequent flier benefits similar to AS/AA, no revenue sharing, and we've immediately gained traction in the midwest.

The reason this situation is unique for AA/oneworld is that BOS/JFK are big markets for oneworld broadly, but AA can't compete effectively in those cities and focuses on PHL as their NE gateway. DL/Skyteam have big focuses in BOS/JFK, UA/Star have EWR.

 

Bingo. I also find it ridiculous that we would need to divest anything. If the government was really interested in competition they would go into the super hubs and make the big guys divest gates there.

 

I do agree with you. Maybe no real precedent for doing that?