So to be clear, you believe if a merger was in play for United, Kirby would tell you and the world right now, correct? Is that your position?

 

Why do you seem to want a merger so bad? They aren’t fun and no body but number 1 pilot on the list is happy

 

Maybe yes, maybe no. But if it’s challenged it’s still going to go before a judge who will be considering the most recent precedent in his/her decision making. And it doesn’t even need to be the DOJ making the challenge. Unions, state AGs, eleven PAX groups or other airlines who believe they may be adversely affected can get in the act.
Heck, after the Norteast Alliance ruling, AA may decide to challenge even this agreement. Even if they didn’t win they might delay it or force gate or slot concessions to get it approved. Or just drag it out a few years.

 

Because I think it's pretty clear with the current situation that it's going to be difficult for JB to remain a stand alone airline and grow organically. Their chance to gain access and market entries in a significant way ended with the Spirit merger denial. Mergers are always messy. But the slow decline into the abyss is less appealing to me.

 

The key phrase in your response is "If it's challenged". Who GAF about what the FA unions whine about should this actually happen. Politics are certainly a part of these kinds of deals and it seems to me that Kirby has already started the skid greasing with his overly positive comments towards Trump and this administration (tariffs, etc). Does it mean it's going to happen? Of course not. But if there are airlines thinking about consolidating do you think it would be a smart strategic decision to do it now, or wait until the 2028 election and take their chances the WH changes hands?

 

I’m sure if you surveyed Virgin America, Midwest, ATA, and ValueJet pilots you would get many different opinions than the one you offer.

 

Who GAF? Who GAF about the Northeast Alliance? But it wasn’t just the DOJ that challenged that (and won) it was six states and the District of Columbia.

And while you may not GAF about the FA union or other unions, or the states, Or DC, they all have the same right to take the issue to court that those who challenged the Northeast Alliance had.

https://coag.gov/blog-post/prepared-remarks-9-25-24/

And AGAIN, the courts aren’t bound by the current administration, they are bound by the same laws as the previous courts and even more so by the precedents which in the case of the NEA Lost in court, lost on appeal, and the Supreme Court has refused to even consider an appeal from the second court decision to them.

You are certainly entitled to your opinion but the only way I see a merger between JetBlue and United likely going through is as a means for exiting a bankruptcy.

 

If Kirby wanted a merger he'd have gone for it now. This would be the best time to roll those dice with a new DOJ and FTC. He's getting what he wants and avoiding the headaches and tailwinds that come with integration.

He's literally said it hundreds of times.

 

So basically you never see another merger happening again since they’ll all just be tied up in courts by entities, states and unions who just happen to oppose it. Got it.

 

I said nothing of the kind. But right now the Big Four have about 80% of the airline passenger business in the US and JetBlue (4.6%) lost a court case while trying to merge with Spirit (4.7%) because it would allegedly undermine competition. That does not suggest it would be easy for them to win a case merging with any of the Big Four. I don’t think you getting snarky about it is going to change that assessment.

As I said, in a bankruptcy situation I could possibly see that happening just as AA merged with US Airways in their bankruptcy:

https://ir.law.utk.edu/cgi/viewconte...20US%20Airways.

or some similar situation, but I think it would take some such situation for any of the Big Four to be allowed a merger in this environment.

But this is America; you are entitled to a different opinion.