Hello. I’m looking to get some outside feedback/thoughts on this question:

I have been at JetBlue for 7 years. I enjoy flying the bus and really have no complaints about the job itself. The people are great and the company has been good to me. I feel no need to fly wide bodies. However, things are obviously not good and long term the future looks much brighter at DL (I have 25 years left). I can move anywhere in the country and I do like the bases Delta has to offer.

I know it’s not a good time to go to the bottom of a list but I would not let that stop me. The main thing I am concerned with is how long would it take to “break even” on the move assuming things stay relatively stable? 4 years maybe? The profit sharing certainly would not hurt. Career advancement would likely be much faster at DL but in the back of my mind I am concerned about the possibility of B6 merging with AA, UAL, or ALK after I leave. I know hope is not a strategy and I can’t stay just to bank on that; there is the possibility of BK and shrinking to death.

Any advice/feedback is appreciated. Thanks in advance!

 

For reference I’ve been at blue for 11 years and I have 21 to go. I decided to stay here when I upgraded back in 2019 and things were more or less looking up. I felt super fortunate to be in the left seat when Covid happened and never would have guessed how the industry would shape up just five years later.

Earlier this year I went through the existential leave or stay crisis as you’re going through right now. I called up all my buds at other airlines to pick their brains and get their thoughts on moving on but ultimately decided again I’m going to stay.

Being in the left seat nearly topped out in pay weighed heavily in my decision. There are a lot of ways to do the math on how long it will take you to break even, but I suspect if you haven’t upgraded here yet it will be no more than 3-4 years as you said. For me, it would have taken a minimum of 5-7 years. It would take me 3-5 years just to hold narrow body captain again and to get back where I am today. There’s no possibility for someone my age to ever hold wide body captain anymore and even if I did it would only be for a very short while on reserve. For you being four years younger, it might be a possibility but you’ve already said that type of flying doesn’t interest you, so that’s one less variable to consider. That’s as things stand today but they absolutely won’t be the same in 10 years. That much we know for sure. We just don’t know in which direction it will be different.

Hiring at Delta and the other legacies has slowed compared to what it was 2-4 years ago but the retirement numbers are strong so I suspect there will be steady movement there, even if they stagnate a bit. We are at a point here at blue where our best case scenario is to remain about the same size or maybe a bit of growth with relatively low retirement numbers. Your (our) career progression here has come to a standstill and will continue to be that way for at least a couple of years.

I know I’ve used a lot of words to not say very much, and much less anything you haven’t heard or already know, but what I will say to you is what I would say to any FO going through this career crossroads. If you’re serious about getting out, go out interview, and get the job offer. Only at that point do you really have a decision to make. Before that time you’re not really asking if you should leave, what you're asking is whether you should put the effort into leaving. It’s hard work and there’s no 100% guarantee that it’s the right thing to do. That being said, if I had your stats and your flexibility, with a job offer at hand, I’d leave yesterday. That’s my $.02 (.05 in 2025 $)

 

Aviation is cyclical and nobody can tell what the future holds, certainly not in 20 years. Is Delta a much safer bet right now? Absolutely. Does going to Delta today ensure you won’t be on the street in 1, 5, or 20 years? Absolutely not.

If you can live anywhere and happily move to a DL base, why not try? But if you do it, don’t look back, because once you start 2nd guessing decisions, you’ll never be happy no matter where you are.

FWIW I decided to stay, because I love my job, my base, and driving to work. If we go completely tango uniform and we’re all out on the street (unlikely), then I’ll make it work, same as any other furloughed pilot in history.

 

Was never at blue nor am I at delta, but have friends that made the transition. None of them regretted leaving. Legacy contracts have a ton of soft pay, operations are ran better, brand loyalty is strong, and the flying is varied. Their only regret was not leaving sooner.

That said, blue is a good company, but hasn’t made a profit in years. I was in the exact same position as you. My former employer couldn’t turn a profit, but lived what I did and whom I did it for, but punched out because I was scared of losing my job. I don’t regret it. If I was in your shoes again, I wouldn’t change a thing

 

Whatever you decide to do . Realize that you won’t have the career progression that you would have if you were hired years ago . DAL has hired thousands of young guys over the past few years. Talk to some friends there if you have any .But If you don’t care about ever being a widebody CA, maybe that’s not a big concern to you .

I have been here shy of 7 years and have 30 years left . I live in base of another legacy airline, and I have debated making the jump several times . Especially recently. But ultimately, I am deciding to stay. Like you, I like my job and the people I work with and I enjoy my QOL . Hiring at the legacies is very minimal now anyways . And knowing my luck, as soon as I do decide to leave we would actually merge with someone ..

Good luck to you.

 

It’s not for everyone, but if you’ve never done it, don’t discount WB flying. I said the same thing before doing it, but now the thought of leaving the WB lifestyle is painful. 25 years is a LONG time. You could have an awesome lifestyle and never leave the right seat of a WB or hop back to the left seat of a NB. It’s hard to realize how valuable having that option is if you don’t have it.

As far as giving up seniority/potential merger (which I think is extremely unlikely with UA), as a previous poster said, make a choice and don’t look back. Buyer’s remorse can happen with most decisions if you look hard enough.

 

I'm going through the same crisis as OP and I'll throw in my .02. Having friends who went to DAL at various times throughout the past 5 years, it's interesting seeing each of their career outlooks. The guys hired in 2020-2022 are seeing crazy progression, even in the left seat. Those hired more recently probably won't be bale to hold upgrade for 4 or 5 more years. That's how much they've hired and how much things have "slowed" as far as progression.

If you haven't, signup for Delta's seniority calculator and you'll see exactly what your career there can look like using a snapshot from today.

https://widgetseniority.com/

The other thing I'll add is that I hear a ton of people saying they don't care about WB flying, which is why they don't want to leave for a legacy. You don't HAVE to fly a WB, and not only that, but the WB benefits you if you want to stay domestic. The more variety in flying an airline has, the more options you have. My buddies at UAL for example who don't want to fly WB are comfortably sitting in the left seat of a NB. That's what hurts us here, the lack of options, so you're stuck with guys getting downgraded and 10+ year upgrades to hold a junior 320 seat. The big guys don't have that because of the widebody flying.

 

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My .02 cents. Here almost 11. Started flying in 1989, airlines 25 years, 10 years left.

Been in bus right seat, 190 left seat, 190 CKA, now bus left oscillating into short call reserve - not by choice - every other month. Commuter. And that's the issue with me. I don't move for airlines. I've been burned in the past moving to bases. Even with only 10 years left I'm thinking of tossing in an app at AA or SWA . Both in my state. Got no issue with Houston El Paso 3 times a day.

JetBlue has a "death zone" in the left seat 320 until you reach 15 plus years seniority. It's reserve or atrocious red eye lines until then. I think that's why lots more people are heading to the 220. Including myself if they stop canceling the awards. I'm commuting off line to sit short call. Yep my choice to commute but again... burned. And it's tough to graze cattle in Queens.

I'm actually considering just bidding back to the right seat and tapping out in 5 years and finding someone with a King Air if I get the flying bug.

I'm just not confident there's a viable plan here. I had a corporate offer on the table two years ago flying a G650 and today, I'm regretting not taking it. I had hope two years ago. Now, not so much.

 

There’s a close to zero chance of JB merging with anyone larger. Judge wouldn’t even let it merge with someone smaller to become a legitimate challenger to the larger airlines. Go to Delta.

 

It seems you’re flexible with where you can live and that’s a fantastic thing. Go, and don’t ever look back! You’ll have a much better career at Delta. Also, at this point I don’t think an acquisition by anyone is going to happen. Management made sure of that by increasing the amount of debt we have. Before the trueblue program was mortgaged off, I was more optimistic of something happening but no, not now. I think a bankruptcy is more of a reality now. It’s been bad news after bad news here and a company can’t go on forever without being able to turn a profit, it’s just not sustainable. So, if you go, enjoy your career as it will be more fruitful, and dont look back!