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Leaving Delta for UPS?- 2021

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Leaving Delta for UPS?- 2021

Old 09-04-2021, 10:29 AM
  #1  
Swimmer
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Joined APC: Apr 2014
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Default Leaving Delta for UPS?- 2021

Hey all,
Any insight would be much appreciated. Here's the situation...

I live in Louisville with no plans of moving (unless I want to get a divorce!). I’m barely on the left side of 40. I’ve been at Delta for almost 6 years, commute to Atlanta, and sit about 70% on the seniority list. Life is good. This month I’m planning to leave Delta to start at UPS. Biggest reason- to live in domicile. I tried to weigh all the pros and cons. I’ve got several buddies in the Louisville guard unit who fly for UPS. They all say the water feels good. Also got several Delta guard buddies who are scratching their head a little. I don’t know anyone who has spent a significant time at a major/legacy pax carrier then made the jump to UPS. I know this is a highly subjective decision. Is it worth it to start over to live in domicile? That’s the questions. I tried comparing several factors below.

I tried to upload a spreadsheet of some numbers I ran but the file type isn’t supported. I tried to summarize the inputs I used below.

Seniority Progression

I looked at seniority progression based off mandatory retirements and from the latest rumor of the desire to hire 3,600 pilots ASAP at Delta. I assumed it would take 3 years to hire that many pilots. I did not factor in any future hiring at UPS for growth, only to match mandatory retirements. To summarize, if I stay at Delta, I’ll be at about 2% on the seniority list if I stay to 65. At UPS, I’ll be at about 11%. Chances are that my percentage at UPS could be a little better than that considering that this is based off mandatory retirements and the average age of a retirement at UPS is ~62.5. There are a lot of upcoming retirements at Delta and UPS at about an equal percentage rate until 2035, where UPS starts to pull the lead causing the seniority progression gap to close. So basically, from 2022 until 2035, I am about 30-40% farther down the list at Delta compared to at UPS. After 2035, that spread starts to close and ends at about 10% spread by 2046.

Upgrade Timeframe

The point on the seniority list where I would bid for upgrade is quite different when comparing a commuter’s schedule vs in-domicile schedule. At Delta, I probable wouldn’t consider upgrading until I could hold a regular line in ATL on the 737. That would be when I hit about 37% on the seniority list which should occur in 2029. For UPS, upgrading to a junior line wouldn’t be that big a deal. So by the time I hit 50%, I could probably upgrade on a junior category (A300?). That will occur in 2034.

Position in the Hiring Wave

I got on with Delta at a great time (January 2016). Between 2014 to 2022, 48.5% of Delta pilots were hired (6,078 pilots). Of those, 1,883 were hired before me and 4,194 after me. That comes out to 15% of the pilot force hired before me and 33.5% have been hired after me.

At UPS, the hiring wave has been going on for some time. Between 2014 to now, ~1,379 have been hired. That’s 44% of the pilot force. Evan though the average UPS new hire is 43 (three years older than me), these pilots will be senior to me for the majority of my career. I’m not sure if hiring's at UPS will continue just to match retirements or for growth as well. Assuming it’s just to match mandatory retirements, it will take 13 years for me to reach the 50% point at UPS versus 4 years to reach the 50% at Delta.

QOL (Commuting vs in Domicile)

The commute from SDF to ATL is relatively easy. We must have a primary and back-up flight to work. Currently there’s an LOA for positive space commuting that goes through next year, which has been nice but that’s not going to last. So I figure on average, I’ll spend 240 hours a year commuting to/from work. That comes out to 250 days over the next 25 years! That’s a lot of time doing work stuff and not getting paid for it. If I spent those 240 hours each year working at UPS instead, that would be worth about $2.0 million in career earnings!

QOL comparison:

1. Driving to work versus flying- UPS wins

2. Pax versus boxes- UPS wins

3. Layover good times- Not really sure on this one. Leaning toward Delta though.

4. Time off each month- UPS wins

5. Getting requested days off- Delta wins due to seniority

6. Fatigue/night flying- Delta wins

7. Flexibility/options (sim instructor, premium pay, etc)- UPS wins

8. Stability- UPS wins

9. Ease of flying- UPS wins (flight attendants, medical emergencies, pax issues, finding smooth air, #15 in the cue versus #1 for the visual)

10. Future threats- Amazon, ME3, recession, pandemic, etc- toss up

11. Culture- Delta wins. UPS’s management/labor relationship doesn’t bother me though. When I leave work, I’m not thinking about it again until it’s time to show up again.

Preferred Trip Type:

Any south-of-the-border, on the beach, 20+ hour resort layover is on the top line of my PBS monthly bid. Pre-COVID, I was getting 2 to 3 of these a month. I heard the A300 is most likely for this (at least out of SDF), so that was top of my dream sheet.

Pay

I spent a lot of time working spreadsheet numbers to compare career earnings between Delta and UPS. Here are the assumptions I made:

-Pay rates: current for UPS and Delta (For UPS, I added the 4% increase effective 1 September)

-UPS upgrade year: 2034; Delta Upgrade year: 2029

-Retirement year (mandatory): 2046

-UPS ALV 75 hours; Delta ALV 74 hours

-UPS 13 pay periods; Delta 12 pay periods

-Delta profit sharing 10%

-Delta wide-body upgrade point at the 22 year point (in 2038) which is a 17.5% pay increase

-401K income limit $290,000 and increases by $5,000/year

-401K interest rate of 4%

-401K contribution: Delta 16%, UPS 12% + 4% by me

-No premium pay considered (I figured GS at 200% and JA at 150% would be about a wash)

-UPS sick leave sell back of 36 hours/yr (basically half), starting in year 5 (to allow bank to fill up)



The result in total career compensation (pay + 401K) was about $9.4 million at Delta and $9.3 million at UPS… a wash. That’s not including UPS’s pension. If I assume I live until 80, then that’s worth another $1.66 million at UPS ($4,400 FDA assumed).

Other (Life insurance, disability, health insurance, Union)

-Life insurance: Delta wins hands down with 2500 times the highest pay rate which comes out to just under $900,000 at no cost. UPS tops out at $100,000 unless you want to pay more.

-Disability: Delta wins cost wise with DPMA at .4% of earnings. I’m not exactly sure how UPS’s is calculated but looking at a buddy’s pay stub, he’s paying about 2% for long-term disability.

-Health insurance: UPS wins easily

-Union dues: UPS wins at 1.5% versus 1.85% at Delta.

If you made this far, thanks for taking the time to read all of this!
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Old 09-04-2021, 10:49 AM
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Seems like you did your due diligence and won’t regret either decision you make. Both are great companies. Once covid is over (at least the covid madness) you will find that ups layovers are alot of fun esp intl. And If u dont mind reserve (esp living in base) you will quickly be able to hold the days you need off. I prefer the 757 over the airbus because u can quickly go from domestic to intl ..and from Miami to Ontario to Louisville if you want without going thru months in training center. But the bus guys I talk to love it. Congrats on being in the position to choose
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Old 09-04-2021, 12:01 PM
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This is by far the best researched post I've ever seen. I think the living in base would be biggest qol for me. This alone would make me want to leave DL for Ups.
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Old 09-04-2021, 12:17 PM
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As above, you've really done your homework, well thought out. Like you, I would probably go for UPS, primarily down to living in base, but it would not be a super easy decision to make. If you do choose Brown, welcome aboard and please use your analytical skills for Union Good!
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Old 09-04-2021, 01:04 PM
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UPS hands down. QOL in domicile is beyond the extra time commuting. Ability to bid anything, take first available upgrade (~5 years) in domicile and open time/JA opportunities. Also I didn't see vacation listed in your summary. UPS OCV options allow junior folks guaranteed ability to drop trips unlike when us older folks were hired in previous contracts. Conflict biding vs. PBS is a no-brainer. Good luck.
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Old 09-04-2021, 02:21 PM
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So it appears you have convinced yourself on paper it’s a justified move. Yet, inside you aren’t quite as sure, hence the post here?

You specified your only real motivation for jumping to UPS is to live in domicile, yet life isn’t bad commuting to ATL. As far as commuting goes, it doesn’t get much easier than yours. Your math on this seems accurate but you’d really have to look at your TAFH (H=home) flying at Brown in base vs. commuting at DAL to have a useful comparison. And don’t forget that at UPS you’re gunna come home and be useless for a day or two sometimes. Just the nature of the beast with the hours we fly here but you should factor that in too as lost time. Also, you’re going to trade 6 yrs of seniority to start over, be on probation again (some potential risk there) for $45/hr, losing travel bennys, a fair chance you might not even get louisville right off the bat and have an even worse commute (ONT, ANC, MIA). Even getting SDF, I can tell you the days of guys sitting reserve at home not getting called out are probably over for good - don’t expect to have overly incredible amounts of time at home, especially being junior.

Taking another leap, I wonder if you’re minimizing the difference in corporate cultures too much. Yeah, I’ve argued for years in these threads that UPS is tolerable but it’s still somewhat of miserable place to work. The open lack of integrity gets harder to swallow by the year not to mention the difference in safety culture between the two companies. The contract we have is awesome but the people we work for put a big stain on whatever joy we might get out of it. Just make sure you know what you’re getting into.

The back side of the clock flying we do is also something to factor in - there’s a lot of it and it all sucks no matter how good you get at dealing with it. Yes, you can find good day flying especially living in domicile but youre gunna give up a lot of flexibility to hold those schedules and are still only 1 revision away from the night flying. Even international is starting to go downhill with 24hr layovers plaguing the bid package and utter chaos for anything that touches Asia these days. FYI - There’s tons of info in these threads with lots of specifics. Search night flying, UPS schedules or look at posts by me under FTFF username.

Overall, I’d say it’s not worth it. Maybe if you only had a year or 2 at Delta or a crappy commute, or have a personal situation demanding more time in SDF you could argue otherwise. At best it’s a lateral move that requires a setback. Not sure if this helps but I have a little over 6 years here; though a little reluctant about doing it, I’d trade places with you if I could. Last, consider these 2 time honored platitudes: “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it,” and, “No balls, no glory.”

Good luck with you decision. Hope some of this info helps.

Last edited by FTv3; 09-04-2021 at 02:37 PM. Reason: Typos
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Old 09-04-2021, 02:22 PM
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Not that the choice would ever be an option for me but…..UPS
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Old 09-04-2021, 02:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Precontact View Post
Conflict biding vs. PBS is a no-brainer.
Conflict bidding loses its luster in domiciles where they can easily backfill with stuffer trips. It’s only really good in ANC.
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Old 09-04-2021, 06:47 PM
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I fly day trips in domicile and my recovery time is not an issue. Also enjoy most weekends off on the domestic side.
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Old 09-04-2021, 07:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Precontact View Post
UPS hands down. QOL in domicile is beyond the extra time commuting. Ability to bid anything, take first available upgrade (~5 years) in domicile and open time/JA opportunities. Also I didn't see vacation listed in your summary. UPS OCV options allow junior folks guaranteed ability to drop trips unlike when us older folks were hired in previous contracts. Conflict biding vs. PBS is a no-brainer. Good luck.
I’ve heard good things about UPS’s vacation policy and conflict bidding (but I am not familiar). Here’s a comparison looking at the accrued vacation days over the next 25 years.

UPS and Delta have a similar vacation accrual schedule (i.e. 14 days until year 6, 21 days until year 12, etc). Sounds like at UPS with 2 weeks of vacation in a bid period, you can drop the entire schedule for 75 hours. That’s a big plus. Being that I’m about to hit year 6 at Delta, I’m up to 3 weeks of vacation versus starting over at 2 weeks at Brown.

-Vacation days accrued over 25 years at UPS/Delta: 633/777

-Vacation pay per day at UPS/Delta: 5/3.5 (3.75*) *3.75 for the first 14 days then 3.5

-Vacation hours of pay over 25 years at UPS/Delta: 3,165 / 2,807

So despite my 6 year head start at Delta, UPS stills wins for vacation hours of pay going forward because of the higher pay per day.
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