Curious of opinions on a 7 year jb capt, line holder, commuting.... Leaving to start new at fedex...

Age 39
3 kids
Would move to base in year 2 or 3 at fedex. Open to FDA colon or Hong Kong.

Thanks

 

Running the numbers financially I'm not sure why you'd stay in that scenario.

It boils down to more than just money though. You really didn't provide enough details about what your big internal debate is, because if it was just about the money/pension you wouldn't need to have it.

 

More money, better pension, better job security, not commuting.

No brainer in my book - go to Fedex

 

We're still light years away from a contract at JB, and even after a CBA it won't come close to comparing to FDX. Don't walk, run! Congrats on the FDX offer!

 

Did you actually really run the numbers? You have to run them under the assumption that you will get a contract at JB. Figure conservatively like JB attaining a contract in 2020 that is right at current industry average. Then compare. I bet they will show you that if you go to FedEx it will take 12-15 years to make back what you would have made by staying put. Then beyond that you will make more at FedEx. How important is QOL? Do you commute now? If so are you willing to move to a JB base? This is too complex of a question to answer. My advice is follow the quality of life. You will make enough to have a good life at either place.

 

Fedex would be my choice if offered....

 

FedEx all day!

But....DRONES. You're only 39

 

Drones! I would stay at JB. This is going to be a real issue in not too long.

 

Anybody that worries about "drones" impacting the overnight freight business in the next 30 years isn't considering the HUGE capital cost that will entail, to say nothing about decreased capabilities, regulatory hurdles, and public perception.

Whenever the Air Force starts using unmanned C17s to fly into hostile AOs...we'll still be a long long long way from seeing unmanned freighters filling the skies over MEM and IND.

 

Those huge costs to develop drone technology are and will continue to be subsidized by our military. When the military takes an interest in a particular technology the growth becomes exponential; it seems to me that they have taken a great liking to the cost-effectiveness of drones.

A quote from Motley fool in 2014:
"Each F-35 will cost the Pentagon at least $159 million, before factoring in the staggering maintenance expenditures that are expected to soar well past a trillion dollars over the F-35's potential half-century of service. With a total of 2,443 F-35s slated for purchase, the lifetime cost of each jet is likely to reach at least $600 million.
Each Predator costs roughly $5 million. The lifetime cost of deploying 2,443 F-35s could equip the Air Force with 290,000 Predator drones."

If the technology is there (and it is), it will become available to the civilian side (I'm guessing within the next 10-15 years). DARPA already has a functioning drone pilot drop-in (remove pilot seat, insert robot) that manipulates existing pilot controls on 3 different aircraft types.

We know that congress could care less about the safe operation of 121 cargo, hence FAR117 not applying to their pilots. Cargo will be the first on the civilian side to allow this experiment. So the cargo guys/gals are the most susceptible in my opinion.

Point is this, full-out drone operations may be a couple decades away for the cargo ops, but single pilot operations are looming; who needs a first officer? Where have all the flight engineers gone? On the flip side, maybe you'll make more money as the single pilot! If you are planning a 20+ year career in cargo and you're not taking this into consideration, you need to wake up.