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Old 09-24-2018, 04:11 AM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by SuperEZE View Post
I understand the question, the only way I can answer that is to say that my methodology fits my particular situation.
If you can think wildly out of the box, you may understand my methods.
Ask yourself what kind of man doesn't seem desperate to land a "dream job"
I do appreciate the advice though, I think it is good advice for most aspiring airline pilots.
And thanks again to all who have the taken time to answer my basic question of QOL in the first 5 years.
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Old 09-24-2018, 04:23 AM
  #32  
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FedEx.

From someone who worked at UAL and had offers from SWA and DAL.

Zero, zilch, no regrets. Best job ever, as long as you care about having the best job ever.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Old 09-24-2018, 04:58 AM
  #33  
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OP, the most important thing really is to find the right fit for you and your family. If you find the company that best matches your desires and goals, then you will be happy and enjoy your job.

For me, schedule flexibility and being gone no more than 3 days in a row ranks highest. I want to be able to take off when I need to and adjust my schedule around my life. On a recent month I had off 24days through the give away process just because I had stuff to do. SW works great for me. I can take off when I need to, most trips are 3 days, I can make extra money when I want to, and other reasons. If I wanted to fly a widebody, relief pilot, multiple aircraft types, bid with PBS, be based in a certain city, wear a hat or didn’t like the 737 then SW would not be a good fit. None of those things matter to me, but they might matter to someone else.

SWA, UAL, AA, DAL, Fedex are all great careers, but each has it’s own pros and cons. I would encourage anyone with a choice to read the contracts, talk to as many peeps as possible and jumpseat if you can. If you don’t have a choice, then absolutely go to the first one that calls because it’ll be much easier to get to your first choice later.
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Old 09-24-2018, 09:24 AM
  #34  
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Originally Posted by allesgut View Post
Doesn’t matter.

SWA you can drop down to zero if you want to. Can’t do that at UA and AA.

You could go to UA and pick up shortcall all the time and never leave -and make extra in SC assignments.

AA and UA will have better seniority no doubt.



Flip a coin


You can drop to zero at AA.
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Old 09-24-2018, 09:31 AM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by Al Czervik View Post
It’s almost there at AA now.


The guys at AA who got airbus captain last bid were just over 5 years. When they start getting paid airbus captain pay on dec 1 they will be just under 5.5 years.
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Old 09-24-2018, 09:47 AM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by Thunder1 View Post
You are way off on your rosy projection of upgrade dropping to 5-6 year mark in the near future. I agree that it will come down from the current 10 yrs that it has been for the last 7 years but it will not come down to 5-6 for anyone. It will slowly come down to 8.5 over the next two years and then may come down to 7-7.5 but you're wearing a very dark shade of rose colored glasses if you think anyone on the current seniority list will upgrade in 5-6 years from date of hire.

Here's what I'm basing my guesstimate on:

https://fapa.aero/hiringhistory.asp

Look at how many pilots we hired in 2009-2014. Compare that to number hired in 2017 alone.

Here are the unknowns...

Over a 1000 FO's can hold captain that are bypassing. How long will they continue to bypass?

LAX base... junior or senior? Once it starts growing, how many guys will take the 6-month lock vs. just wait out for non-ETOPS bid in OAK (presumptive junior CA bid)?

Now, 600ish total upgrades in 2019 of which 400ish in the first 6 months.

What are you basing your predictions on?
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Old 09-24-2018, 01:03 PM
  #37  
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I’d base my predictions on that 5 years is an eternity in the Airline Industry. Projections are just that..projections. GK likes to merge (acquire) other Airlines every ten years or so. The last one, AirTran was September 2010...So, I would expect another merger (acquisition) within the next 2-3 years. Age 67-70 could also slow upgrades if passed by Congress as well as the eventual next recession. Just too many variables that have yet to unfold to give an accurate upgrade timetable IMO.
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Old 09-24-2018, 01:04 PM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by RJSAviator76 View Post
Here's what I'm basing my guesstimate on:

https://fapa.aero/hiringhistory.asp

Look at how many pilots we hired in 2009-2014. Compare that to number hired in 2017 alone.

Here are the unknowns...

Over a 1000 FO's can hold captain that are bypassing. How long will they continue to bypass?

LAX base... junior or senior? Once it starts growing, how many guys will take the 6-month lock vs. just wait out for non-ETOPS bid in OAK (presumptive junior CA bid)?

Now, 600ish total upgrades in 2019 of which 400ish in the first 6 months.

What are you basing your predictions on?
The roughly 1000 FOs that bypass will constantly be there. As long as our pay is good even for FOs, there will always be a large chunk that say, “250K a year is plenty & a great QOL is not worth ruining by upgrading”.
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Old 09-24-2018, 01:06 PM
  #39  
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Where are you guys getting the 600/400 upgrades next year anyway?
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Old 09-24-2018, 01:27 PM
  #40  
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Originally Posted by WHACKMASTER View Post
Where are you guys getting the 600/400 upgrades next year anyway?


Just to even out the list. Jesus. The FO side is like a freaking pimple ready to pop right now. The November vacancy is a sad reminder of how overmanned we are. I cannot wait to see the DRO list for November!
Captains, meanwhile, are still able to crush premium on the weekends and still get rerouted and have trips extended on the regular. It has to even out at some point.
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