Yeah a startup is going to hurt for a long time, and you're doing it in hopes that things will turn out well in ten+ years, or you'll get bought by a good airline. Unless they very consciously address the pilot shortage up front by offering a good compensation and workrule package, comparable to other majors.

But usually the startup business model is about leveraging low-longevity wages to competitive advantage... after a decade they typically need to sell out or compete on their own merits, if any.

They’ll have no problem finding pilots. Despite the recent respite, regional flying will continue to contract. And all these startups need to do is offer starting pay that is competitive with regional CA pay and they’ll staff with no issues. Plus it seems like pilots are always willing to jump at the thought of being super senior on a seniority list.

I welcome it. The more drain on the regional pilot supply there is out there the more likely it will be that we’ll see an accelerated end to regional flying as we know it today.

Agreed. Drain that regional pool, make the legacies cry foul, and watch it implode. Nothing would make me happier.
Start FOs at new ULLCs at current regional 5 year CA pay.
Done.

I don't think the regional's are going anywhere anytime soon. Yes they will contract and some regional's will close their doors as pressure on the pilot supply increases. If the legacies determine that the markets and services regional's provide are necessary they will make the improvement required to sustain them. What is percentage of domestic lift being provided to the legacies? Has that gone down or increased? Aren't some airlines like United looking for scope relief to add more regional lift? Republic just ordered ordered 100 more aircraft, and they are not replacements.

Let's face the fact, someone has always got to be on the bottom. Maybe it's done by regional's, or a "B" scale, or putting pilots on a seniority list with a lock for a certain number of years. But they will still be here in some form as long as there is a need.

Do you know what the bases will be for this new airline?

I think I just proved my point. PSA just announced pay raises on par with Endeavor, and Republic. We aren't even due for contact negotiations until 2023 and the union gave nothing for this improvement. What do you want to bet Piedmont and Envoy will have something shortly. Throw in our true flow to AA, within reach of 5 years for most pilots already here, and guys will not want to take a chance with an unproven start up.

The regionals ain't going anywhere!

These startups will pay competitive wages, $200/hr year 1 or 2 street CA and top out at $270+/hr, just like every other ULCC/LCC currently pays except 1. Most regional guys will take the risk for that carrot considering DN is 4 for 4 with airline startups. As far as draining the regionals by these startups, not sure who came up with that idea but even if they hire a 1-2k each, there are 20k regional pilots today plus new ATPs students are increasing every year so that logic doesn’t add up.

This needs to be posted on C&R. Heads would explode.

These LCCs and ULCCs will wise up and start their own instructor pipeline and RTP etc programs just like the legacies have done with their regionals. Sun Country and JetBlue have already begun this. More will follow. There will never be a shortage of pilots at the legacies or the LCCs the way there will be at the regionals in the coming years. It’s only going to get more competitive and the legacies will have to get more creative to secure their comparatively cheap regional feed.

I meant don't bet against Levy to be successful. You can slam Allegiant all you want to (though you've never worked here) but this place is a money machine. Always has been. Not suggesting someone should jump ship from an LCC/ULCC to work at XTRA though. There will be no shortage of pilots. Look at all the washed up regional lifers watching their world collapse and banging every door they can to get out. They would jump at the chance to make $160/hr+ flying a Boeing. As for Moxy DN has never been wrong. That will be a much bigger threat to the current LCC/ULCCs especially Allegiant in SFB. I could see some of our younger pilots jumping ship hoping to cash in like the early JetBlue pilots did. As for the customers I'm not so sure. Allegiant customers seem to put value above everything and unless the price is the same they probably won't buy a premium product. Our customers treat air travel as a commodity. By buying new planes under warranty and hiring pilots on first year pay Moxyy will probably be financially competitive with us for the first 5 years or so. And could offer equivalent fares for a better product. Then as others said they will be looking for a buyout when their costs rise. DN takes his money and rides into the sunset. Again.