rickair7777

I agree that "autopilot" could but a dent in regional flying, but at some point people would rather fly than sit in a car for 12 hours. Especially if all of the interstates are clogged up by travelers who would have flown otherwise. Ever been on I-15 between LA and LAS on a holiday weekend?

Also as "autopilots" become more common, so will associated accidents and something will have to give for liability reasons... like the car will have to verify hands on the wheel or eyes on the road. The legal/regulatory system will not let people abuse the tech (ie sleeping, etc).

tnkrdrvr

As someone who only recently left the LA basin, I can tell you it’s already being abused. The I15 to Vegas does blow, but it’s still faster than driving several hours to get to LAX or John Wayne, wait 1.5-2 hours for your flight, and then deal with the hassle of claiming your bag. Sitting in your brand X car watching Netflix with one hand draped over the wheel for four hours is faster and less stressful. That’s why more people drive than fly that route. The knock on effect of large numbers of folks no longer flying shorter routes will have a number of third and fourth order effects on how airlines build their networks.
I think the threat of both drones and “autopilot” is overblown, but eventually you will see far fewer pilot bodies required.

Vito

Benefits of UPS,
Very stable, very profitable
No PBS, I’ve conflict bidding
Great vacation flexibility
Exceptional pension, we’re talking over $100,000 a year better
Cons;
Night flying, not for everyone
Management structure that’s not always pilot friendly

Two replies about some points brought up.
While Amazon seems like a threat, they are maxed out just delivering their own product, much less grandma’s cookies or business documents.
As far as night flying, if you want to make big bucks flying wide-body International, your going to be flying at night at ANY airline.
Good luck

contrails12

http://https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/...ups-fedex.html

Amazon is already delivering about half of its own packages in the U.S., according to a Morgan Stanley estimate on Thursday, and will soon pass both United Parcel Service and FedEx in total volume.

“Our AlphaWise analysis shows that Amazon Logistics already delivers ~50% of Amazon US volumes, focused on urban areas,” Morgan Stanley said.

Amazon Logistics is the e-commerce giant’s in-house logistics operation. Morgan Stanley said Amazon Logistics “more than doubled its share” of U.S. package volumes from about 20% a year ago and is now shipping at a rate of 2.5 billion per year. For comparison, Morgan Stanley estimates UPS and FedEx have U.S. shipping volumes of 4.7 billion and 3 billion packages per year, respectively.”

“We see more of this going forward as our new bottom-up US package model assumes Amazon Logistics US packages grow at a 68% [compound annual growth rate from 2018 to 2022],” Morgan Stanley said.

That would put Amazon Logistics at 6.5 billion packages per year by 2022, according to the firm, far exceeding its estimate for UPS at 5 billion packages per year and FedEx at 3.4 billion packages per year.

“To us, Amazon Logistics is already-large scale and with a fleet ~1/5 the size of competitors, it speaks to its ability to use density and technology to drive efficiency,” Morgan Stanley said.

Thrust Hold

I’ll just say this. I know a lot of Spirit guys senior to you (some Captains) that have left for American and UPS. I don’t know any AA or UPS guys/gals that have left for Spirit.

Profane Kahuna

Is seniority really forever in an industry with a history of furloughs?

How much does a seniority number pay when you are on the street?

BoilerUP

That's why seniority matters...

Profane Kahuna

Right up until you are out on the street.

AAfng

I can say that with 2yrs at aa I have 2000 pilots below me with so many retirements in the next couple of years that unless skynet attacks I am safe.

Profane Kahuna

Cool....what is that in percentage, around 87%?