Tango86

I thought AA would be hiring the most pilots over the next 10 years. Something like 8,300-9,000 based on retirements.

Recently, I’ve been seeing United throwing out “10,000” as their hiring number over the next 10 years.

Who’s really hiring the most folks over this coming decade??

TFAYD

Nobody really knows. Hiring is driven by retirements and growth. Retirements are known - growth not so much.

There could als be a scenario where there is no hiring despite retirements - if an airline shrinks. Not likely but also not impossible.

rickair7777

Retirements might move faster than expected. For a long time folks were hanging on to the bitter end, but some of that was due to financial pain from the lost decade.

ZeroTT

Retirements might move a little faster than planned but each pilot can only retire once. All the 55 year old guys will be gone in 10 years. Maybe some early but 1000 55 yo guys will only yield 1000 retirements over 10 years

ShyGuy

(Pulls pin)


AGE 70!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



(Runs)

symbian simian

True, but don't forget the 200 guys that are between 50 and 55 and retire at ages between 60-65. (Yes, I pulled the number out of my behind, but the principle does apply.)

Big E 757

The correct answer is: everyone, hopefully!

Things CAN change. Everyone says AA has the biggest numbers of retirements coming up. The numbers Ive seen posted do confirm that. But it’s not a ton more than UA and DL. A couple hundred more some years, if I remember correctly.

If the economy stays strong, and aircraft deliveries continue on the current pace, the legacies are going to pillage the regionals and LCC’s for pilots. If the economy slows down and/or we enter a recession, retirements will definitely offset any need to furlough, and either hiring stops for a while or at least slows down.



The bottom line is, the entire industry has changed for the better the past 10-12 years. The consolidation hasn’t recession proofed us, but it’s made the entire industry more viable. All the pain we’ve all felt from the lost decade is going to pay off. I wouldn’t try to sharp shoot things at this point. The real answer is go to the first airline that hires you, but keep your apps updated at your #1 and #2 airlines for the first year or two.

If the legacies were smart, they could eliminate a competitor or two in the process. Pick an LCC, say Spirit. If United, Delta, American, and Southwest decided for 6 months or a year to interview every spirit guy or girl that applied, they could cause a huge disruption to Spirit’s operation while satisfying their hiring numbers. I know it’d involve collusion and would be illegal, but it’d be hard to prove in a court of law also. They’re typed on an aircraft all the legacies operate, except Southwest, as long as the phone calls weren’t recorded, it’d be tough to prove. After Spirit, Frontier or Allegiant would be up next. Easy, right?

I better go to bed before I get myself sued by Spirit management.

And it HAS happened in the past. Back in the late 90’s, if you got hired at TWA, you “almost” had a class date at Delta once you passed your 727 FE ride.

Powderkeg

The problem will be convincing the pilots at the (U)LCC’s to turn their backs on Captain pay and being 50% up their seniority list. From my non-scientific research there are very few pilots at NK and F9 (that are over 35 or have more than a couple years seniority) that are still updating their legacy apps.

rickair7777

Yeah that would be a hard sell. But I almost expect to see one or more LCC's acquired simply for their pilots... if the scrapings from the bottom of the barrel get too nasty, they may go looking for ready-made experienced professional pilots.

TFAYD

I seriously doubt that. It will be a lot cheaper to start an an initio program and pay for training (or heavily subsidize it). That’s where all the recent programs are pointing to.