I saw a “comfort” chicken on a flight that had a little diaper on. It made me feel amused and hungry at the same time.

Which means less than nothing in regards to their business model viability

Yes but you forgot to mention that the flight will cancel and then they will have to buy a ticket on another carrier....there goes the saving!!:D

I agree 100%. Although my comment didn’t contribute to the topic at hand I thought to point out the difference between the two LCC.

Your opinion is valid.

Startup airlines have these advantages if they can get off the ground. Also governments tend to favor startups with slots/gates and other freebies which would never be available to established carriers.

Long term as their costs increase and/or the economy tanks, startups tend to either fail or get absorbed into large carriers where the economy of scale exists.

Jetblue is an unusual startup winner IMO, in that they have achieved product differentiation and do not hinge their entire business model on cheap labor and low Mx costs (which don't last).

Guess I would walk by and say I will take the leg. Don’t need the wing. Already have a pair of them.

Same can be said about any carrier... they all cancel at some point.

Yet you only hear about people getting stranded by Frontier/Spirit/etc. If you’re getting a super cheap fare on a route that only has one flight a day or a few flights a week, you’re taking more of a risk than on a route with more frequent service.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.policygenius.com/blog/the-most-least-reliable-airlines-in-2019/amp/

Yet the chances of being canceled are lower on a few ULCC vs their legacy counterparts.

So to your point, it’s great American has more flight options because your flight completion is the most questionable in the industry

I'd rather say Easyjet is Europe's Southwest. LCC model and a desirable career airline with NB wages not too far behind BA/AF/KL/LH.
Both have very productive days but SW guys seem to have more days off per month.

Cheers

In the not so long ago past, Spirit canceled upwards of 20% of its flights DAILY for short durations. They were absolutely horrible. They put an increased focus on operational completion and its paid off, albeit at large increases in YOY CASM increases (reflected lately in the sagging stock price).

AA had a really bad summer 2019. The injunction helped but after the mechanic sabotaged the aircraft in MIA, it appears they had a come to Jesus moment and September was one of the best months since the merger in completion and on time.

That being said AA is definitely the weaker of the legacies when it comes to vulnerability from the ULCC's.

No one wants to take a stab at answering these?

1.) America West/US Airways had a good sized hub in Las Vegas and once the recession hit and fuel went up back in 2008 they quickly closed that hub and they never regained the market share. The void has been filled in Vegas by the ULCC’s. I think the ULCC’s will see the same thing happen in markets like Florida, Vegas, and the Caribbean during a recession. People won’t be going on vacations no matter how cheap the tickets are.
2.) The problem would be available landing slots and gates.

As far as #2 goes, I can't see much different outcome vs the failed Euro ULCCs who went TATL. F9 doesn't have a big base of loyal fliers on the east coast where they would likely be launching flights from. Sure, TTN, but thats not nearly big enough in my mind, and faces immense competition with UAL/EWR and AA/PHL. F9 doesn't have a big network to feed flights, and/or O&D based pax, and an onboard product that isn't really desirable for 8+hr flights. I think TATL would be a very bad idea.

Yes, that is my point. While AA needs to do better, their network and frequency mean less risk compared to a low frequency ULCC. Also having a hub and spoke network makes overcoming cancellations easier.

1. CASM is less than 6 cents. They will be fine.
2. Not sure what they plan to do with those.

The xlr frontier ordered is so they can finally do transcons.

The A321neo has plenty of range for transcons so I think the XLR order goes beyond that.

Really? What’s is spirits completion/A14 compared to the legacies?

More than plenty. XLR is for something else,

I think you’re missing my point. Airlines with hubs and extensive networks can cancel flights and still get passengers to their destinations. An airline with only one or two flights per day from a city is tough to recover from if something goes wrong. If there was something really important for me to get to, I wouldn’t choose the ULCC with low frequency. If saving money is the top priority, then sure.

That is a fact. When I book family I will usually get them on delta because of reliability and frequency. Last thing I want is a call “my flight canceled and they can’t get me out for 3 days”

I don’t have the graph in front of me, but you will be surprised to know, (as of the last year and a half or so) we are consistently better than United and AA most quarters now.

Delta beats us, but they beat almost everyone because they overblock their flights so they can appease and keep the business flyers (as it was explained). They are paying for it essentially.

About 2 years ago NK launched the “Invest in the Guest” initiative. Since then CF, On Time Dept and A14 has increased dramatically.

Hate to break it but the main reason our times improved is because Vanilla Bob decided to increase blocks and turn times like every other airline. It had nothing to do with investing in the guest but more so playing the same block game as the other airlines. The company also got a few more spare planes for the system to help avoid cancelations. Under Baldanza, we had 1 spare plane at times. For the entire system. Every other plane was out and logging over 17 hours a day.

So in short, she didn’t invest in the guest, we started to do what other airlines do

I remember reading that frontier struggles with transcons in the winter time due to packing them in there like sardines.

I read that as well, but it doesn’t make much sense with their current layout. The XLR will have reduced cargo capability due to the extra tank. So if you try to put 230 pax (F9’s 321 config) in the cabin I can’t see how there would be room for bags as well.

Only true for the A321ceos. All the NEOs can do transcons without issue. We just don’t have any A321neos yet. Our A320NEOs don’t have an issue with transcons.

Not sure reduced cargo space will be much of an issue. We don’t carry non-bag cargo and we run around with one cargo compartment or the other empty or almost empty most of the time in the 321

LCC's actually do better when the cost of fuel goes higher. The legacies raise ticket prices to cover costs but since the spread between ticket price is how LCC's make money, with their CASM being half of the legacies, they make bank. Just go back in history over the past five years or so.

When oil prices fell the LCC's started to feel the squeeze from the legacies who were able to discount their tickets more to better compete.

They must pack it pretty thick then, and cut into their fuel load?

I did, a couple pages back. Maybe it was TLDR but if you want a real answer you need to read it.

You don't think the Legacies costs won't increase over the years?
The big 3 are in negotiations now I don't think their pilots are going to accept pay cuts. The ULCCs only need to be proportionately cheaper.
Im pretty sure managers were saying the same thing about Southwest 35 years ago. The ULCCs are just taking Southwest's model to the next level of cheap...beyond the trailer park cheap.

I think you have it backwards. ULCC don’t have to match the legacies or they are trying to. The legacies are trying to match the ULCC by offering basic economy and charging for the “extra” assigned seats, bags and so on.

4 airlines control 80% of the seats in the US domestic market. The legacies control the market. They don’t need to match the ULCC’s. The Legacies are into branding and marketing their different products. Not trying to match ULCC’s prices.

They don't need to match ULCC's prices but they do.

"If we don't match the lowest fare in a marketplace, we found that we'll lose around 20% of our customers over time," American Airlines CEO Doug Parker said at the Airlines for America summit on Wednesday.

"It's not for everybody," United Airlines CEO Oscar Munoz told Business Insider of basic economy in an interview last year, adding, "It's the economics of matching and competing in markets where the low-cost carriers are offering this type of basic-economy service."

"For America's three legacy airlines, the premise of basic economy is simple: offer a slightly de-contented product at a price point on par with ultra-low-cost carriers like Spirit or Frontier. It's a product designed to not only keep those carriers from infringing on their turf, but do the job without sacrificing the profitability of their traditional economy-class offering."

https://www.businessinsider.com/why-...-so-bad-2018-9

I don’t know how to insert comments within quotes, but I’ll add my two cents.

First, I do think the ULCC’s have plenty of room in the US to survive and thrive. They’ll have to continue to be creative with routes to deploy all those 500 aircraft orders though. I think if the ULCC’s really start throwing routes up overlapping the Legacies, there will be push back. Who wins, I don’t know. The legacies have deeper pockets, but anti-competitive laws level the playing field for the ULCC’s.

As far as your comment about making 15% less than your peers at United, you used to make 45-50% less, so you’re moving in the right direction, and if you consider the quicker upgrade and time value of money, which offsets some of the lost income from widebody opportunities, it’s a much better gig at Frontier, Spirit, or Allegiant, than it used to be. It’s a much closer call that it has ever been. (Except when Spirit was paying more than the Legacies for a while back in 08-10? Maybe?)

I think we will all be fine. Will Spirit and Frontier do well during a recession? Yes, that’s the sweet spot for the ULCC’s. When consumers are more price conscious, you’ll have more legacy customers buying tickets on the ULCC’s.

Can you break into the Transatlantic market? I’m sure eventually, but the Legacies aren’t just going to roll over and give you an opportunity on a platter. JBLU was talking about it and everyone assumed they’d be flying JFK LHR. Those slots are impossible to get so Delta and Virgin tried to box them out of the UK by adding service from Bos and JFK to Gatwick and Manchester. Our masters aren’t going to give anything to your masters, but if the ULCCs found some lucrative tertiary markets that the Legacies didn’t see much value in, then you’d be on your way. Something like BWI-SNN, or MCO-Valencia Spain. I don’t know. If you have an east coast hub with feed, pick a medium sized European city with an LCC of their own or a good train network and you might be able to pull off seasonal service. But going head to head with the Legacies on THE most lucrative international market is going to be met with stiff competition.

I hope my comments didn’t sound biased or condescending. I think we can all thrive, but it won’t all be easy and smooth sailing. I feel like the “leaders” at Spirit and Frontier try to rally and motivate the troops by saying “We are taking the fight to the enemy! We are going to kick their asses at their own game, in their own hubs! But the smarter play is to continue where you’ve been the most successful, which is growing where we ain’t.

A friend of mine got hired at AirTran after we ended up furloughed in 2002...he said the talk about how AirTran was really putting the screws to Delta every hour of every day by every guest speaker that welcomed the new hires was tough to listen to. But the other new hires got fired up over it. Everyone wants to believe they work for a first class outfit that’s doing new things or has original ideas. The truth is, we are all just cogs in our separate wheels trying to earn a living.

I jus finished a 5 day trip with 28 hours flying, with 7:50 block today and a 4:00 am CST wake up. Sorry if I didn’t make much sense. It made perfect sense to me while I was typing it. I’m going to bed. Peace

I got the opposite vibe from the higher ups at Spirit. Most of the time when we announce a new route or cities, there’s never any mention who we are competing against. It’s mostly “This is what we are doing, and that’s it” It’s how it was made out to be on one of the investor calls.

“We don’t really care what they are doing,” Spirit CEO Robert Fornaro said Oct. 25 on an earnings conference call. “It’s just the marketplace adjusting and adapting. The key thing is, ultimately, how many seats do you sell at a certain price?”

https://skift.com/2018/10/29/why-low...economy-fares/

Because the ULCCs don’t compete with the legacies. The legacies still don’t realize it. ULCCs competition is Amtrak, Greyhound and the family automobile. (And of course other ULCCs)

How will they do during a recession? Just fine. Just like Spirit did during the last one. They grew unabated and negotiated a new contract during the last recession.

Oversea routes have yet to be proven. However, Frontier is coming at it with an advantage to everyone. They already have sister companies overseas with established routes. Not hard now for Franke to connect the dots on his global network. Ie...WhizzAir, Volaris, JetSmart(although a start up).
PHL to some place in Europe on the 321xlr and you have quite a network to connect to through WhizzAir.

Interesting quote from that article:

SAVE was in the 60's back in Feb 2019. It would have to climb over 50% from where it closed on Friday to close above its 52 week high price.

It would have to more than double to hit its all time high of $80+ set five years ago.

That being said I like the company and the stock from an investor standpoint.

And 10 years ago they controlled 97%....
Meanwhile both Spirit and Frontier are adding hundreds of new planes for growth. Those 4 will be at 50% soon if they don’t smarten up.