I wonder how the "Basic Economy" stuff is working out for the big guys? Sure doesn't seem like it's hurt us, our planes are still full, but I wonder how the big airlines see it so far? I'm sure it's at least going better than Ted and Song

Load factor is a tiny measure of success. You can fill planes without making money

Right, no doubt. But Frontier & Spirit are making money.

My point was more so that United starting their basic economy hasn't seemed to pull customers off of our planes. I was just pointing out that the the ULCC load factor hasn't decreased with the legacies trying to play the cheapo fare game. I am more curious how it's working for the big airlines

And to your point, when Frontier went bankrupt the planes were full.

There has been margin compression throughout the industry. Prior to AA and UAL dabbling in the basic economy market, Spirit’s margins were in the high teens/low twenties. The one airline deciding not to go full bore into basic economy, Delta......Air......Lines (did I get it right? :D), has the highest margins in the legacy market. Who’d of thunk that filling your planes with low yielding passengers when your costs are double that of the ULCCs would result in lower margins.

It has become kind of a MAD between the ULCCs and the legacies with basic economy. The difference is that the ULCCs are designed around low cost whereas the legacies can afford to subsidize the loss is revenue so long as their one BIG cost (fuel) is cheap. If fuel goes up, I wouldn’t be surprised to see AA and UAL dump basic economy for higher yielding fares to offset the increase in cost.

Delta does have a basic economy type of product, right? Are you saying that Delta just sells fewer of those type of fares than UAL & AA?

That is my understanding.

Why are the planes and fuel the same costs for a ULCC but labor costs so cheap?

Why does a ULCC pilot discount their labor then boast about company profitability?

I realize that you are trying to make a point, and a fair one at that. However, the ULCCs have found ways to reduce aircraft and fuel costs. Aircraft costs are reduced by higher utilization rates and by bulk orders (Indigos 430 aircraft order). Fuel costs are reduced by higher seating counts, lower cost index and high percentage of fuel efficient aircraft.

Obviously ULCC pilots goal is to achieve pay parity with our legacy counterparts. We have made major strides in that direction. Both Frontier and Spirit have dramatically better contracts than we did a few years ago.

Why boast about profitability? Its job security. Its upgrades. Its seniority.

I suspect AA is most at risk to the ULCC model. It seems like Spirit and Frontier are gaining ground in many AA hubs; 2020+ is going to be interesting as more planes are added, more routes are added to the network, and more bases are opened.

Will there come a point where ULCCs struggle to attract enough new pilots and that rapid growth can't be sustained? Legacies offer job security, upgrades, and seniority in spades. Why go to a ULCC instead of a legacy?

Because they are close to the same thing as a Legacy? Upgrades and seniority are better if not the same. Mid level pay is short, but top end and 401k are about the same. No profit sharing. They aren’t far off and if you are cool flying narrow body, No, I don’t think they will have a problem.

Maybe the Legacy carriers will get smart and hire the ULCC captains who have applied. This would create two training events. It's a way to swat back.

I would imagine the percentage of ULCC captains that have their apps out anywhere is incredibly low.

I don’t even know one fo post new contract who does.. is this a joke ? How long at a legacy till you hit 50% on the list ? Have you ran the numbers for ULCC Captains ?
270/hr at the end of the contract + 15% and everything paid at 125% over 82 hours just isn’t good enough? Then I absolutely agree move on.

NK had a total of 5 captains leave for other airlines last year. That barely registers. ULCC’s (NK/F9) won’t have a problem hiring if the growth continues as projected and upgrade times stay at 3 years or less. I think you’ll see some churn on the bottom of the list as guys that are 2 or less years in leave for one of the big 3 or fedex/ups but that’s about it. Currently even FO attrition is incredibly low (less than 20 total in 2019) but you may see that increase as the upgrade times at the legacies drop.

That seems very accurate and fair.

I’m 50% COMPANY seniority after 3.5 years at F9. Where in spades can that be beat at any legacy?

I don’t think finding pilots at F9 or NK will ever be a problem. Also, I don’t think 99% of captains would be willing to give up 170k, likely more, in lost wages. As well as losing seniority to go fly for a legacy, even if they did some sort of selective hiring. Unless, the next round of legacy contracts bring 30-40% pay raises. :)

No doubt. Let’s end this AA love fest, simply because they are a Legacy carrier.

Dead last in the ratings, tons of debt, and going nowhere fast.

American best offering is “we have lots of retirements”.

very unlikely. Last year Spirit have 2.3% and Frontier has 1.5 of the marketed flights.

But but...I've got three failed checkrides, no degree, and a DUI, so gimme dat flow to mainline for my back pocket, which is really my primary plan because I got no other options outside of the regionals.

I see a lot of butt hurt ULCC pilots chiming in. If you are in the right seat at a ULCC a legacy is a by far better job. No comparison. All things being equal like where you live etc. even half way up the CA list it’s money even or more to start over at a legacy if you are 35 or younger. It would be a qol hit for some time and seniority risk though. Some need to actually know the legacy contracts before they start saying a ULCC is a better option. We have done better this cycle but still far behind and years out of negotiations with the big four in negotiations now.

This is why i hate pilots. We are all on the same team.

Spirit was dead last a couple years ago. Things change. And 99% of guys would take AA over any ulcc.

The Legacy airlines, my personal opinion, will overreach in these new contracts. That leads to unsustainable pay and benefits should (when) the next economic downturn comes. So while yes I want to see huge gains for all of us as pilots, who gets hurt in a down turn? We do. We get furloughed and our contracts cut. The CEOs and others on the top get to keep what they have. I guess long story short, the ULCCs might not be in a bad place should the economy go into a recession over the next few years.

That’s exactly what your management wants you to think.

I’d be curious to know how long it takes to get 50% seniority among narrowbody 737/320 pilots at a legacy. I’ll bet it’s not much longer than 4-5yrs.

pilot pay never saved or killed an airline. Largest labor line item but peanuts in overall cost of operating. This is a regional game.

It's not over-reach because it IS sustainable in the current environment.

The trick for the unions is to find just the right balance for givebacks when the time comes.

Furloughs are gonna happen, it's hopeless to try to prevent that, and counter-productive.

What the unions need to avoid is BK filings this time around... if you give some *temporary* voluntary concessions with automatic snapback dates (snapback can be voluntarily extended if needed down the road) then you can avoid a BK which would gut your hard-earned contract (which as we know is a deep hole that takes a long time to climb out of).

By doing it in a voluntary manner you stay in the driver's seat for how much, how long, and whether to extend it.

Also worth noting that BK laws have changed since the last round... it's MUCH harder to do a "bankruptcy of convenience" today. Any management team that files will be in serious risk of losing their jobs and their company to the whims of the creditors so management is more likely to try to work a deal with labor to avoid BK. But pilot groups also need to work to avoid BK, because THEIR jobs and careers would be in the same jeopardy. Liquidation is far more likely today than in 2007.


Bottom line... no need to work for ULCC cut-rates today on the premise that legacy rates *might* not be sustainable in some future economy. But be prepared to work with management on TEMPORARY concessions if the day comes when BK is a real threat.

As an FO? Much less than that, depending on the base.

Largest labor line item, and Labor is the largest total cost line item.

Pilot pay always used to be the largest single expense historically, but fuel surpassed that at some point after the turn of the century. Although pilot pay may be catching up at some airlines.

Inflation-adjusted pilot pay is not that high by historical standards. Oil (inflation adjusted) took a big jump in the 1970's and, on average, never came back down.

I was thinking of 50% total seniority among the 737/320 fleets. How long would it take to hit that point at a legacy?

Actually that was my opinion after taking a history class on the airline industry. Im open to being wrong, but it was an observation. In downturns bankrupt airlines gut pilot contracts calling them unsustainable. Think how pensions disappeared and how long it took to get back to where we are, yet the top level walk away with millions. Now this has nothing to do with ULCC being better then Legacy, it was just an observation on history that seems volatile.

If you haven't read this Forbes article, you really should: https://www.forbes.com/sites/deandonovan/2019/12/03/ancillary-growth-makes-airlines-and-especially-ulccs-a-better-bet/

It offers some pretty good analysis on the financial difference between the legacies and the ULCCs

Don't forget who upper management is there to serve: Wallstreet. They work to keep the investors happy. It's all about the stock price. And they will do anything to keep it up. They will cut capacity in a heartbeat if they think they'll keep the stock price up when things turn ugly in the economy.

Doesn't look like it:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/trave...able/81035522/

If you study the history and the changes to the law it is very much the case.

Also worth noting that for airlines they have to file BK before they actually run out of cash... the FAA knows a broke airline will not meet safety requirements and will pull their cert at some level of low liquidity. An airline can make the case to the court that they have to file while still in black if the GS is headed for the red.

The big difference is that creditors have more control of the process now. But if RAH feels THEIR creditors would prefer the airline intact and making lease payments, it might feel comfortable that they will cooperate rather than force liquidation. But it's still uncertainty for the DIP.

And regionals are in a unique situation... they have long term contracts with both their creditors (plane lessors) and their customers. If costs increase (pilot costs in this case) they cannot just pass them on to the customers, or readily re-negotiate their leases. So in this case it's probably legit.

No, we are not.

Everyone is turning this into a dick measuring contest between ULCCs and Legacies...

The real answer to the question about will the pilot pool dry up is yes. Once growth slows at the ULCCs they’re going to need to do something to keep attracting/keeping talented pilots. Once the Spirit’s and Frontier’s reach their critical mass and upgrades start to stagnate then their contracts are going to have to offer pilots an incentive to come here over a legacy. Look at Southwest a few decades ago if you want to see how this will play out. If Spirit or Frontier start having their growth plans hindered by lack of pilots then it gives the pilots more leverage at the negotiating table and contracts will improve.



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If you think that way you’re part of the problem.

If we were on the same team then why do the major unions allow regional pilots to be treated so poorly as compared to the major pilots?


Groupthink is idiotic.