I’ll pass it on to my English teacher.

The coming recession will drive everyone to use ULCCs and the legacies will go bankrupt, just like last time. Lol NOT.

This time the legacies have better pricing power and they will be able to make their money in places ULCCs can't touch. They'll be able to outcompete the ULCCs in contested markets, which is what they were expected to do last time, before everyone realized that overcapacity combined with 2000 era Orbitz style websites totally disarmed them.

ULCCs will be forced into mergers and I expect one Frankenstein of a company will be powerful enough to hold on to some vital markets, but the segment as a whole will shrink.

This train is going one direction and it’s gonna take a lot to put the brakes on. ULCC’s have been taking market share from legacies over the past 20 years.

What exactly will reverse that because there’s been a few recessions and they continue to take market share.

It could probably slow down the party but not a whole lot. So, the numbers for now are showing most do not retire before 65. If you are at 65 chances are you are healthy enough to fly to 67. Finally everything happening to the industry now will probably change the retirement age if only temporarily. None of this should change outlook for a new hire though. For the OP, you are to be justifiably concerned about AA's debt level. Its not going to go away no matter how robust the industry remains. Widebody or not, commuting or not, the health of your career airline will affect your life more than anything else. I have witnessed it. I have experienced it. Good luck in your decision though however you choose.

AA domestic schedules are pretty rough so they’re seeing 10-15% more retire per year than age 65 mandated because those folks are miserable. The Group IV crowd… they’re leaving kicking and screaming with 1000+hrs of sick time in their banks because they enjoy their 3 day trips to Frankfurt too much to hang up the spurs.

ULCCs have taken market share from Greyhound, not Legacy carriers.

ULCCs have been creating more market share than taking directly.
That’s the point of their existence.

The legacies have responded and have simply decided to hire away ULCC seniority lists and recruits. And will continue to do so for the better part of a decade.

An average income family is not going to take Greyhound to Orlando. They will fly. But they’re not going to pay more to fly a legacy carrier.

Yeah, but once you factor in luggage and strollers, assigned seats together, and what not, you won’t save anything going on a ULCC.