Winners/Losers & M/A
04-24-2020 | 06:52 PM
#11
Banned
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 1,192
Likes: 0
whats up with all the new users with a series of numbers as scree names? I've counted 3 and they all post nonsense.
04-24-2020 | 07:36 PM
#14
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 692
Likes: 0
This is uncharted territory for the industry and everyone wants to give their “educated” opinion on what will happen. It’s like the people that go to a nice restaurant and order an expensive bottle of wine and sit there swirling it around and smelling it like they are a sommelier. 99% of those people have no idea what they are looking at.
04-24-2020 | 07:44 PM
#15
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2019
Posts: 53
Likes: 0
This is uncharted territory for the industry and everyone wants to give their “educated” opinion on what will happen. It’s like the people that go to a nice restaurant and order an expensive bottle of wine and sit there swirling it around and smelling it like they are a sommelier. 99% of those people have no idea what they are looking at.
04-24-2020 | 08:06 PM
#16
Line Holder
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 556
Likes: 2
The guy's an idiot, his analysis is based on perceptions of brand loyalty, total disregard for international exposure and financials including owned assets.
With just a little industry knowledge and SA, here's my take...
SWA is most likely to survive, worst case they would be last man standing if it came to that.
Big three will get bailed out, they may enter BK but I think the fed will prevent liquidation although that might even involve a surprising merger. Worst case one fails, then they save the other two.
AS/B6 about the same boat, AS financials are better, idiot is apparently not aware of that. Probably survive, maybe gain ground as the big three are distracted by sustained international downturn. Worst case, merger? If the fed saves the big three do they have to save # 5 & 6? Idiot says AS will be pushed out of west coast domestic market and be forced to retreat to Alaska... big three gonna be a little distracted bailing their international boat for market grabs
ULCC/Leisure operators: At higher risk IMO due to exposure to low-income market and vacation market, as well as *possibly* being small enough to fail if push comes to shove. Worst case, mergers and maybe one or two failures. I think these guys are most exposed if there is a deep sustained downturn. I do not think that legacy customers will flock to ULCC for cheaper fares (legacies will be offering cheap fares for a good long time).
HAL: Deep do-do. I'd be surprised if they don't merge. Asia travel is done, and the locals clearly don't want mainlanders on their islands. Maybe bail out due to unique position, but I'd guess merger more likely.
That's my off-the-cuff SWAG, and may be missing important puzzle pieces.
With just a little industry knowledge and SA, here's my take...
SWA is most likely to survive, worst case they would be last man standing if it came to that.
Big three will get bailed out, they may enter BK but I think the fed will prevent liquidation although that might even involve a surprising merger. Worst case one fails, then they save the other two.
AS/B6 about the same boat, AS financials are better, idiot is apparently not aware of that. Probably survive, maybe gain ground as the big three are distracted by sustained international downturn. Worst case, merger? If the fed saves the big three do they have to save # 5 & 6? Idiot says AS will be pushed out of west coast domestic market and be forced to retreat to Alaska... big three gonna be a little distracted bailing their international boat for market grabs
ULCC/Leisure operators: At higher risk IMO due to exposure to low-income market and vacation market, as well as *possibly* being small enough to fail if push comes to shove. Worst case, mergers and maybe one or two failures. I think these guys are most exposed if there is a deep sustained downturn. I do not think that legacy customers will flock to ULCC for cheaper fares (legacies will be offering cheap fares for a good long time).
HAL: Deep do-do. I'd be surprised if they don't merge. Asia travel is done, and the locals clearly don't want mainlanders on their islands. Maybe bail out due to unique position, but I'd guess merger more likely.
That's my off-the-cuff SWAG, and may be missing important puzzle pieces.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...-are-ther.aspx
Better Financial analysis; by the way look at the chart (supplied by Alaska) on Long Term debt vs CAP%. Read the part about Balance Sheet strength.
04-24-2020 | 08:06 PM
#17
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 44,886
Likes: 684
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
I disagree. Lot's of random journalists talking about how zoom will kill business travel, but JP Morgan did an analysis (quoted in Aviation Week recently) which concluded that business travel will not change fundamentally... this is a broken record that's been getting played during every economic crisis since email was invented.
04-24-2020 | 08:19 PM
#18
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,183
Likes: 238
I disagree. Lot's of random journalists talking about how zoom will kill business travel, but JP Morgan did an analysis (quoted in Aviation Week recently) which concluded that business travel will not change fundamentally... this is a broken record that's been getting played during every economic crisis since email was invented.
04-24-2020 | 08:31 PM
#19
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 683
Likes: 0
From: Happy
IF the industry starts to slowly come back in the next few months people (business or leisure) will absolutely be very mindful how they spend their money. How many people filed for unemployment how many companies are bleeding ? Of course they will watch every single penny. SWA ULCCs JB wil get more traffic plus the way they are set up will make money with less people on their mostly single fleet highly fuel efficient planes.
in good times people who don’t fly much and don’t have much fly those carriers, in addition to people who just don’t feel like paying 200 dollars more for PHL - MCO for no reason. In bad times people who watch their wallet fly those carriers. JetBlue was about to go to Europe this year with the 321 and Frontier is the launch customer for the 321XLR.
I think (and hope) the big 3 will survive but it won’t be in their old form and shapes.
Frontier I believe has 15 months in cash but who knows they are privately owned. For all of our sakes I hope all airlines survive. If this lasts much longer non of us will. My glass is half full
edit : we are all in this together. Literally non of us are immune. So for all of us let’s hope the path to recovery starts soon
in good times people who don’t fly much and don’t have much fly those carriers, in addition to people who just don’t feel like paying 200 dollars more for PHL - MCO for no reason. In bad times people who watch their wallet fly those carriers. JetBlue was about to go to Europe this year with the 321 and Frontier is the launch customer for the 321XLR.
I think (and hope) the big 3 will survive but it won’t be in their old form and shapes.
Frontier I believe has 15 months in cash but who knows they are privately owned. For all of our sakes I hope all airlines survive. If this lasts much longer non of us will. My glass is half full
edit : we are all in this together. Literally non of us are immune. So for all of us let’s hope the path to recovery starts soon
Last edited by 303flyboy; 04-24-2020 at 09:14 PM.
04-24-2020 | 09:25 PM
#20
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 537
Likes: 0
IF the industry starts to slowly come back in the next few months people (business or leisure) will absolutely be very mindful how they spend their money. How many people filed for unemployment how many companies are bleeding ? Of course they will watch every single penny. SWA ULCCs JB wil get more traffic plus the way they are set up will make money with less people on their mostly single fleet highly fuel efficient planes.
in good times people who don’t fly much and don’t have much fly those carriers, in addition to people who just don’t feel like paying 200 dollars more for PHL - MCO for no reason. In bad times people who watch their wallet fly those carriers. JetBlue was about to go to Europe this year with the 321 and Frontier is the launch customer for the 321XLR.
I think (and hope) the big 3 will survive but it won’t be in their old form and shapes.
Frontier I believe has 15 months in cash but who knows they are privately owned. For all of our sakes I hope all airlines survive. If this lasts much longer non of us will. My glass is half full
edit : we are all in this together. Literally non of us are immune. So for all of us let’s hope the path to recovery starts soon
in good times people who don’t fly much and don’t have much fly those carriers, in addition to people who just don’t feel like paying 200 dollars more for PHL - MCO for no reason. In bad times people who watch their wallet fly those carriers. JetBlue was about to go to Europe this year with the 321 and Frontier is the launch customer for the 321XLR.
I think (and hope) the big 3 will survive but it won’t be in their old form and shapes.
Frontier I believe has 15 months in cash but who knows they are privately owned. For all of our sakes I hope all airlines survive. If this lasts much longer non of us will. My glass is half full
edit : we are all in this together. Literally non of us are immune. So for all of us let’s hope the path to recovery starts soon
