Winners/Losers & M/A
04-25-2020 | 02:32 PM
#41
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 193
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Numerous theories exist that if the middle row is blocked off, the LCC's will not be able to compete with legacies, they will have 66% of previous max capacity, and running the same cheap fares. They will have to raise fares to legacy prices, but now they are not a "Low Cost" carrier anymore.
this is not a comment against LCC, just saying if the middle row is blocked/eliminated, it will be hard to compete.
sure, a guy in front, or in back, can recline his seat etc and get into your personal space.
my comments are from a pure "eliminate the middle seat PAX" point of view
this is not a comment against LCC, just saying if the middle row is blocked/eliminated, it will be hard to compete.
sure, a guy in front, or in back, can recline his seat etc and get into your personal space.
my comments are from a pure "eliminate the middle seat PAX" point of view
Wouldn’t the legacies have to block the middle seat also. I’m trying to figure out how the LCCs will have to raise prices but the legacies will be fine as they are with that amount of pax missing. I’m guessing that to make it mean anything they would also need to block one seat a side in that money making first class. At least on narrow bodies. Wide bodies with the pods would probably work.
04-25-2020 | 02:39 PM
#42
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 2,083
Likes: 10
LCCs/ULCCS historically break even with a load factor in the high 60% range. Legacies break even around 75%. LCCs can just about break even in that "no middle seat" scenario, legacies can't unless they raise prices, which would give the LCCs an advantage. LCCs grew at a crazy rate after the great recession, and in the following 5 years had the highest profit margins in the industry while legacies shrank. 9/11 was a similar story.
Time will tell, I suppose.
Time will tell, I suppose.
I have no idea what’ll happen, but I can probably guess if that you work for a Legacy, you’re probably biased towards the Legacies coming out in better shape....and the same if you work for a LCC/ULCC.
04-25-2020 | 02:40 PM
#43
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Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,072
Likes: 17
From: CA
Are they gonna do the equivalent at sporting arenas? The Red Sox can only sell 1/2 of their seats? Movie theaters? Or maybe we just issue everyone a plastic bubble?
04-25-2020 | 05:21 PM
#44
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Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 1,839
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I find it funny that those thinking the legacies will match ULCC prices because of the current environment, payroll made/cheap fuel etc., never realize that the LCC/ULCC’s will benefit from those same tailwinds. And they have a lower starting CASM. A flight that a ULCC might have priced tickets at $33 to break even might be able to do so now for $15. Granted, those numbers are off the cuff, but the larger point is that I really doubt the legacies will be offering that kind of airfare.
The second part is that those customers who wouldn’t normally deign to fly in a packed out Airbus likely find themselves and or their business travel budgets under a bit of pressure. Voila, that pre-reclined seat seems suddenly seems like a viable option.
Let’s hope we all pull through this.
The second part is that those customers who wouldn’t normally deign to fly in a packed out Airbus likely find themselves and or their business travel budgets under a bit of pressure. Voila, that pre-reclined seat seems suddenly seems like a viable option.
Let’s hope we all pull through this.
04-25-2020 | 05:30 PM
#45
Banned
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,655
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From: Narrow/Left Wide/Right
Like you said, during the historically bad times the LCC’s grew while the Legacies shrank. This is a new crisis and potentially much worse, but some of the common elements remain the same.
I have no idea what’ll happen, but I can probably guess if that you work for a Legacy, you’re probably biased towards the Legacies coming out in better shape....and the same if you work for a LCC/ULCC.
I have no idea what’ll happen, but I can probably guess if that you work for a Legacy, you’re probably biased towards the Legacies coming out in better shape....and the same if you work for a LCC/ULCC.
04-25-2020 | 06:06 PM
#46
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Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 1,838
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That will change soon though again. The LCC and ULCC management groups are already trying to grab for major concessions. Take a look at the Allegiant forum and you will see. SWA management has already started the verbal hint that its time to give back. This will be reverberated by all management groups once one airline caves and agrees to it. Its the same playbook over and over. Now lets see if the current pilots learned from that history.
Last edited by Noworkallplay; 04-25-2020 at 06:32 PM.
04-25-2020 | 08:57 PM
#47
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Joined: Oct 2008
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Legacies started basic economy a few years ago to compete with the LCC. However, many people were still willing fly 4+ hrs on Spirit and Frontier and have to pay for a carry on with no Wifi, IFE and have to pay for snacks or drinks. The frequency didn’t have an impact on Spirit or Frontier before. You think the legacies can match the LCC’s price, while operating 4-5 flight a day on a particular flight while the LCC does 1-2 flights a day? You would think, after the legacies started basic economy few years ago, and had more frequency, how did Spirit and Frontier grew like the way they did?
04-26-2020 | 05:37 AM
#48
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Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,114
Likes: 38
I love some of these guys and their absolute statements of "LCC won't" or "Legacy won't". No one knows. Stop acting like you have this crystal ball no one else has. Speculation is one thing, but these absurd absolutes are another.
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04-26-2020 | 06:00 AM
#50
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Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 889
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People love to throw stones and tell you how bad the “other guys have it,” Delta ALPA said at the beginning of this that you “would not want to be at aa or ua right now. It’s a coping mechanism, I get it. Guys often throw out furlough guesses that conveniently fall just short of their number.
The truth is like poetry, and Americans ****ing hate poetry -Dude from the big short
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