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Old 04-27-2020 | 01:30 PM
  #61  
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Originally Posted by Andy
Hilarious thread. Everyone talking about how the other guy's job/airline are screwed.

Here's who's really screwed: Every single pilot for every single airline. If you don't get furloughed, you'll take pay cuts (save the keyboard antics for someone else; it will happen to all of us), contract concessions, and a career that's moving in reverse due to furloughs.
Generally true. Some of the top guys will actually get a lot of paid of paid time off... very well paid, although they might still complain about dropping below $1M due to loss of OT.

Cargo will be good for a while, might see a downturn with the economy or maybe not if this business accelerates the shift away from brick and mortar.

Originally Posted by Andy
As for Zoom replacing business travel, that's just brain dead idiocy. Zoom has turned out to be an extremely hackable platform. Which is a huge weakness for teleconferences no matter which vendor you use. Want to invite the world to your business discussions? Use a teleconferencing platform. Any one of them; they're all hackable.
You're but the issues are much deeper than tech implementation.

For a variety of reasons, face-to-face interpersonal communications will remain critical for any significant relationships and transactions. That's my gut feel, and JP Morgan recently published words to that effect.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/s...-that-happens/



Originally Posted by Andy
I can come up with 25 different scenarios to explain why LCCs are worse off than legacies. And I can come up with 25 different scenarios to explain why legacies are worse off than LCCs. The problem with the clowns on here stating how 'the other guy' is more screwed is ignoring all of the different ways his own airline can/will be screwed.
The big three + HAL are royally screwed. On the domestic front, you can make the case either way as to whether the middle of the pack or the ULCCs are better positioned.

Originally Posted by Andy
Time to break out the BOHICA flight bag stickers because BOHICA.
The stickers won't even stick to bags anymore. One thing I miss about the old days. Our crew rooms still have old school bags on shelves, I'm guessing from retirees. Today everybody has a kevlar cooler full of Kale.
Old 04-27-2020 | 03:01 PM
  #62  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
Generally true. Some of the top guys will actually get a lot of paid of paid time off... very well paid, although they might still complain about dropping below $1M due to loss of OT.

Cargo will be good for a while, might see a downturn with the economy or maybe not if this business accelerates the shift away from brick and mortar.



You're but the issues are much deeper than tech implementation.

For a variety of reasons, face-to-face interpersonal communications will remain critical for any significant relationships and transactions. That's my gut feel, and JP Morgan recently published words to that effect.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/s...-that-happens/





The big three + HAL are royally screwed. On the domestic front, you can make the case either way as to whether the middle of the pack or the ULCCs are better positioned.



The stickers won't even stick to bags anymore. One thing I miss about the old days. Our crew rooms still have old school bags on shelves, I'm guessing from retirees. Today everybody has a kevlar cooler full of Kale.
Why is HAL screwed? I’d imagine if leisure travel returns first then they should see a good bump to mainland traffic (when they restart of course) and Japan seems to be getting back to normal rather quickly.
Old 04-27-2020 | 03:01 PM
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
Generally true. Some of the top guys will actually get a lot of paid of paid time off... very well paid, although they might still complain about dropping below $1M due to loss of OT.

Cargo will be good for a while, might see a downturn with the economy or maybe not if this business accelerates the shift away from brick and mortar.



You're but the issues are much deeper than tech implementation.

For a variety of reasons, face-to-face interpersonal communications will remain critical for any significant relationships and transactions. That's my gut feel, and JP Morgan recently published words to that effect.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/s...-that-happens/





The big three + HAL are royally screwed. On the domestic front, you can make the case either way as to whether the middle of the pack or the ULCCs are better positioned.



The stickers won't even stick to bags anymore. One thing I miss about the old days. Our crew rooms still have old school bags on shelves, I'm guessing from retirees. Today everybody has a kevlar cooler full of Kale.
Generally agree. Good points even those that I disagree on. Disagree that Zoom/Teleconferencing will not impact business travel. Court hearings are being held on Zoom/etc. now. The folks that say Zoom will not impact business travel are the same ones who said a blackberry was a dumb idea circa 2005, who wants to walk around and check email ?

Zoom can be hacked, so can email. JP Morgan did not write that article, this chick did: https://twitter.com/jfsklar?ref_src=...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

She also wrote about an app for menopause: https://neo.life/2018/06/wheres-the-killer-app-for-menopause/


Uh....
Old 04-27-2020 | 03:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyby1206
Why is HAL screwed? I’d imagine if leisure travel returns first then they should see a good bump to mainland traffic (when they restart of course) and Japan seems to be getting back to normal rather quickly.
We don't rely on business travel. Only have to rebound to 1 flight per day per city from HNL and OGG, plus or minus a redeye. Operate the lowest cost airframe to the mainland. Will probably benefit from reduced capacity. Our startup plan can be as simple as towing the 08L aircraft back to the gates. We will most likely be eliminating meal service for awhile, and the FA's contract may require 1 less FA in the back. We will be leaner coming out of this just on those two costs alone.


I think not relying on business travel is a huge benefit as long as the average vacationer gets their job back in May and June, which is looking like more of a possibility. Japan and California are key.

Could be worse. Our CEO could be posturing for concessions.
Old 04-27-2020 | 03:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyby1206
Why is HAL screwed? I’d imagine if leisure travel returns first then they should see a good bump to mainland traffic (when they restart of course) and Japan seems to be getting back to normal rather quickly.
Maybe. I sure don't know. But HI was caught between their economy and their innate xenophobia, and we saw which one won out. My buddy was on house arrest for two weeks after he finished a trip, and he LIVES there. I suspect international leisure travel will be slow to pick back up, and HI may drag out visitor - unfriendliness for a good while. I think folks are more likely to jump on SW to go see cousin Sue in OKC before they head "overseas".

Remember, many US tourists going to HI have to ask if the take dollars over there...
Old 04-27-2020 | 03:40 PM
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
The big three + HAL are royally screwed. On the domestic front, you can make the case either way as to whether the middle of the pack or the ULCCs are better positioned.
.
Big 3 and HAL royally screwed? Very doubtful. No worse than any other airline.
If you're suggesting that international travel will rebound more slowly than domestic, I can make several cases as to why you're right. I can make at least as many cases as to why you're wrong, especially in a world of outsourcing.

You've made a statement implying international travel will not return quickly with nothing to back it up. You, like everyone else, are merely guessing about the future.
Old 04-27-2020 | 03:50 PM
  #67  
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Originally Posted by Flyby1206
Circling back on your post.
Funny that Richard Branson's pic is in that article.
Branson's empire is rapidly crumbling and he could very well end up dying penniless. So that daredevil CEO is usually swimming naked and we all get to see that when the tide goes out. (to paraphrase Warren Buffett).

Or maybe a couple lines from a Jimmy Buffet song:
I made enough money to buy Miami, but I ****ed it away so fast
Never meant to last, never meant to last
Old 04-27-2020 | 04:27 PM
  #68  
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I keep hearing that one Legacy is toast. Delta says it's United, United says it's American and AA seems to be pretty laid back about the whole thing.
.
Delta to buy HAL.
SWA to buy Alaska and Sun Country.
Frontier and Spirit merge.
JB not having a dance partner left will merge with Allegiant.

All in all about 40000 Pilots on the street. BAM, end of the Pilot shortage.

Sounds about as accurate as the OP.
Old 04-27-2020 | 05:37 PM
  #69  
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Miatas are not sports cars....

Thread derail attempt #1....
Old 04-27-2020 | 07:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Andy
Hilarious thread. Everyone talking about how the other guy's job/airline are screwed.

Here's who's really screwed: Every single pilot for every single airline. If you don't get furloughed, you'll take pay cuts (save the keyboard antics for someone else; it will happen to all of us), contract concessions, and a career that's moving in reverse due to furloughs.

As for Zoom replacing business travel, that's just brain dead idiocy. Zoom has turned out to be an extremely hackable platform. Which is a huge weakness for teleconferences no matter which vendor you use. Want to invite the world to your business discussions? Use a teleconferencing platform. Any one of them; they're all hackable.

I can come up with 25 different scenarios to explain why LCCs are worse off than legacies. And I can come up with 25 different scenarios to explain why legacies are worse off than LCCs. The problem with the clowns on here stating how 'the other guy' is more screwed is ignoring all of the different ways his own airline can/will be screwed.

Time to break out the BOHICA flight bag stickers because BOHICA.
Crack your knuckles, absorb some crack (intake your preference) and get to the dictation of these 25 scenarios. No flying, no drug test! I expect a full crack addled report by morning.

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