The pilot shortage is over:
 

Maybe a slowdown, but the retirements continue into the next decade. It would take significant shrinkage at the legacies to stop all or most hiring across the board for more than a year or two. It should be back soon.

Does look like the peak of the wave has passed though.

Southwest is only stopping hiring due to the Boeing issues and JetBlue/Spirit each have a myriad of different issues after the merger being blocked. If P/W and Boeing weren't having issues getting planes safely to these airlines no one would be slowing hiring.

idk how retirements look at other airlines, but DL’s are not spectacular. We have roughly 17,000 pilots on the list now, if you figure an average hire age of 35* that should yield about 570 retirements per year. Not counting 2024, we only have 4 years between now and 2040 where we have over 500 scheduled retirements. With the biggest year being 556 in 2030.

*2023 average new hire age was 35.6.

Umm...no. You are forgetting FAA medical disqualifications, mortality, the effect on utilization rate of soft time improvements in recent and future contracts, and increased flying associated with US population growth of about a half percent per year. Of course greater capacity aircraft might offset that and then there is the possibility of single pilot ops, about which the less said the better...

did you mean to quote me? Because nothing in your post really affects scheduled retirements or refutes what I said.

The longer your time horizon the less medical issues matter. A pilot who medicals out at 63 in 2025 doesn't retire in 2027. So for a given year you might expect 100 retirements and get 110 ... for a decade you're gonna expect 1000 retirements and get 1020 or whatever.

In his defense he is always wrong about everything and never makes any sense.

just about Spirit

He’s already on the way out so that’ll change