The pilot shortage is over:
03-04-2024, 10:44 AM
#2
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,289
Maybe a slowdown, but the retirements continue into the next decade. It would take significant shrinkage at the legacies to stop all or most hiring across the board for more than a year or two. It should be back soon.
Does look like the peak of the wave has passed though.
Does look like the peak of the wave has passed though.
03-04-2024, 12:27 PM
#3
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Position: Student of the game
Posts: 1,011
Southwest is only stopping hiring due to the Boeing issues and JetBlue/Spirit each have a myriad of different issues after the merger being blocked. If P/W and Boeing weren't having issues getting planes safely to these airlines no one would be slowing hiring.
03-04-2024, 01:18 PM
#4
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Joined APC: Sep 2015
Position: UNA
Posts: 4,417
Originally Posted by rickair7777
Maybe a slowdown, but the retirements continue into the next decade. It would take significant shrinkage at the legacies to stop all or most hiring across the board for more than a year or two. It should be back soon.
Does look like the peak of the wave has passed though.
Does look like the peak of the wave has passed though.
*2023 average new hire age was 35.6.
Last edited by Gone Flying; 03-04-2024 at 01:30 PM.
03-04-2024, 01:27 PM
#5
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,503
Originally Posted by Gone Flying
idk how retirements look at other airlines, but DL’s are not spectacular. We have roughly 17,000 pilots on the list now, if you figure an average hire age of 35 that should yield about 570 retirements per year. Not counting 2024, we only have 4 years between now and 2040 where we have over 500 scheduled retirements. With the biggest year being 556 in 2030.
03-04-2024, 01:32 PM
#6
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Posts: 4,417
Originally Posted by Excargodog
Umm...no. You are forgetting FAA medical disqualifications, mortality, the effect on utilization rate of soft time improvements in recent and future contracts, and increased flying associated with US population growth of about a half percent per year. Of course greater capacity aircraft might offset that and then there is the possibility of single pilot ops, about which the less said the better...
did you mean to quote me? Because nothing in your post really affects scheduled retirements or refutes what I said.
03-04-2024, 01:34 PM
#7
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2024
Posts: 140
Originally Posted by Excargodog
Umm...no. You are forgetting FAA medical disqualifications,..
03-04-2024, 01:40 PM
#8
Banned
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: Pilot
Posts: 2,625
Originally Posted by Gone Flying
did you mean to quote me? Because nothing in your post really affects scheduled retirements or refutes what I said.
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