brian434

So I've read in a few places that another pilot shortage is just around the corner. I remember just a couple years ago that all of my friends were walking into regional jobs and CFIs were getting paid well in my area. That has since changed and we're all hurting. A lot of people, like myself, are thinking about stepping away from aviation.

If this shortage is true it should make it pretty easy to stick with flying and actually be able to pay the bills. If you had 900 hours SEL in your log book what would you do to start getting some of that MEL that you need? Is an MEI worth it? What about type ratings? Should I be investing in this idea of a pilot shortage and my own capabilities in hopes of topping other applicants?

Getting the MEL time has to be the hardest part. What does everyone else do?

Thanks for the tips guys and gals.

Ewfflyer

I would say do whatever your doing to keep building time. Eventually, something will open up and you can get your opportunity.

Now, I'm a strictly against any PFT programs, even though some can give you an experience you won't get elsewhere. Another thing, if you can get to 1200hrs TT, you are now opening yourself up for 135 work. I started flying 135 with 1400hrs, finished 20months later with 3400hrs. Times were better then, but there's still potential.

Just keep networking, if you have some spare cash, I would try to keep MEL current at least. That way if an opportunity arose, it could help you.

As far as the MEI, if you have a place that you know you can use it, or if you have the cash, and want it for future opportunities, get it. In my case, I never got it because I had no potential for using it, and it was going to cost too much for my earnings at the time.

There is no one path that is going to work, you just need to keep your eyes open for the one that will work for you.

RomeoSierra

I got my MEI hoping it will make me look better for the 135 operators thinking that I might be able to handle a seneca or twin cessna better than some one who just bought block hours. Thats just my thinking and and the few multi students ive gotten since have been fun to work with.

Im at 1100 hours total and 100 multi and was wondering if I have to have all the 135 IFR requirements to apply (cross country, night, instrument, so on)? Or just be close to the requirements?

DashGirl

The few actual numbers available imply an actual domestic pilot "shortage" is not likely to come to fruition. For example: American has one of the largest pilot groups of the US legacies and only a few more than about 500 of their pilots are nearing 65. They currently have almost 2000 on furlough.

The total number of furloughed pilots at US legacies (according to this site) is 3787. There are 7 legacy carriers..If American, is a good measure..this is all guesstimation of course: then say 500 retirements per legacy and the total number of retirements is nearly 1200 fewer pilots than the total furloughed. The actual nearing retirement number would have to be significantly higher than my estimate to even result in a full legacy furlough recall.

So in my opinion, the numbers don't support the pilot shortage theory, not even remotely. I think there will be an increase in hiring, but I'd be surprised to even see another regional job boom like the one in 07' ever again.

Comparatively the numbers are probably less favorable for a pilot shortage at the regionals as the regional pilot group as a whole is typically much younger than the legacies.

rickair7777

American is not a good measure because various airlines experienced vastly different success and growth over the years, therefore their hiring bubbles occurred at different times. US Airways (East) and Delta (North) pilot groups have a lot of old pilots. Not sure about UAL.

Actually I think the numbers might support a POTENTIAL shortage if you look at it strictly from a known supply/demand perspective...

1. There will be retirements, age 70 is not going to happen.
2. People are leaving the regionals for other careers...you are welcome to their jobs, but maybe you better ask yourself why you would want them.
2. It is harder to get into flying due to
- The investment makes no sense...to much time and money for little payoff. While there MIGHT be a payoff in 25 years, that's too far out for most kids and lenders.
- Lenders have wised up, even if kids with SJS have not. But actually I think even some of the kids have wised up.
- GA is declining, this makes it harder to build time due to lack of entry-level jobs.
- New TAA are all the rage with flight schools, especially the larger ones which are more likely to survive going forward...this will drive up the cost of instruction by a significant margin.

If none of the downside scares you off, there might well be a $20K regional job awaiting after a few years of training and timebuilding and many tens of thousands of dollars..

Of course this assumes no industry catastrophe...presumably we will be subject to the usual wars, terrorism, epidemics, economic failures, and environmental fascism

Shortage at the regionals is driven almost 100% by attrition...CA's moving on to majors and born out FO's finding new careers. Retirements will not become a factor at regionals for about 20 years, if ever.

de727ups

"A lot of people, like myself, are thinking about stepping away from aviation."

There is nothing wrong with stepping away for a while. The nice thing about flying is you don't lose the hours, ratings, and experience you have to this point. Depending on your personal money situation and how fast you're building time, you might want to hang on until you get 1200 total. That's the IFR 135 min. That, and a little multi time, might help you get in the door at a 135 freight company at some point. 1500 total and you can go out and get your ATP.

I also agree with Ewfflyer in that those that plug away are most likely to be in the right place at the right time to get a shot at the next rung up the ladder. When you take yourself out of the game, you postpone any upward movement. That puts those that keep plugging away at an advantage, and they most certainly won't mind one less guy in their way.

For some, plugging away will be best, for others, getting out is a good option. It totally depends on your personal situation and goals. What are your options?

TonyWilliams

I will add to your excellent points that if you do not have a 4 year college degree, the chances at a well paying "major" airline job in the USA is going to be virtually non-existent.

For all the "dues paying" (both in time and real cash dollars), you will most likely never make it to the big payoff. And even after the furloughs, if you do make it, the chances of the airline failing are always present.

The quickest upgrades at a major airline are probably at the most unstable. That means perhaps a new, untested airline, of which there are a bazillion failures, or one that people have low confidence in and are bailing from to go to a "stable" airline.

Those stable airlines of today will probably not be the stable airlines when you need them "tomorrow".

Past "really good airline" for a career:

Pan Am

DashGirl

All good points, I'm just not that optimistic after being "regionalized" for nearly four years now..Agree with your final statement 100% though.

brian434

Due to current financial status chances are I am going to have to go back to working for the government as a mechanic. I've been told by a hiring offical that if nothing changes I have a job at McGuire AFB, NJ making $31/HR with 40hrs/wk guarentee. It's not what I really want to do long term but it will be good while my wife is in medical school. At the same time I am applying for commission through the Air Force for UPT.

snippercr

Is the MEI a good investment? Well, I have one and other than the hours of multi I bought to get it, I have not used it. I haven't even been in a twin since my II/MEI combined checkride and there doesn't look to be any change soon.

Dashgirl actually made an interesting post in another thread about how FOs are stuck building a whole bunch of "worthless" SIC time and never getting that PIC time to finally go onto something better. Us CFIs are in a similar situation - building hours of single engine time and never getting that multi time needed to go onto something better.

I would say if there is the possibility of getting some multi students at your school, get your MEI - you can do it pretty quickly if you already have the hour requirements. The oral and flight are pretty straight forward. However, unless you know you are getting multi students, hold off and save your money. Most schools save their multi-engine students for the most senior people there, usually furloughed/retired airline people (there is another thread talking about if this is fair or not).

As TonyWilliams said, Pan Am was a great airline to work at, so was TWA and Eastern. Oops.

Word of caution: next to Union talk, 300 hour wonders, and scope, a very hotly debated topic here is the "Pilot Shortages." You can find several posts on front pages about one and there are always 2 arguments: It will never happen and never has happened when forecasted -OR- age 65 retirements and lack of students entering training will lead to a shortage. I don't think there will be a SHORTAGE, but I think there will be movement and modest hiring at acceptable minimums, ~1500total 100-200 multi with an ATP to be "competitive" at the regionals. But hey, what do I know? I'm just a CFI. Time to go spin up that Arrow.