Financial effect of current Jet A prices
03-08-2026 | 06:00 PM
#11
Retired.
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 449
Likes: 7
From: Retired
Some 18 years ago the oil prices went up to $142 and bankrupted a cargo outfit I flew for while on a furlough from a major.
Furloughed because of 9/11.
Same stuff over and over again.
Glad I am retired and bought an electric Ford F-150 recently.
Furloughed because of 9/11.
Same stuff over and over again.
Glad I am retired and bought an electric Ford F-150 recently.
03-08-2026 | 06:05 PM
#12
Thread Starter
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 4,064
Likes: 246
Ok let's say they don't care and they start moving again. Millions of gallons of output are offline and infrastructure is getting torched. We're at 20m a day deficit now, going to 5m a day isn't a whole lot better.
There is no short term option to get us back to Feb pricing. I'd love to be wrong, though. But every day that goes by until then is $20m more down the hole.
There was a way to do this and it involved planning for it five+ years ago. Hell they didn't even bother filling our SPR. It's still at 60% and much of that can't even be accessed without damaging the wells themselves apparently.
03-08-2026 | 06:09 PM
#13
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2024
Posts: 351
Likes: 40
It's not working. No company will put their vessels at risk when lead time to get a new one is measured in years.
Ok let's say they don't care and they start moving again. Millions of gallons of output are offline and infrastructure is getting torched. We're at 20m a day deficit now, going to 5m a day isn't a whole lot better.
There is no short term option to get us back to Feb pricing. I'd love to be wrong, though. But every day that goes by until then is $20m more down the hole.
There was a way to do this and it involved planning for it five+ years ago. Hell they didn't even bother filling our SPR. It's still at 60% and much of that can't even be accessed without damaging the wells themselves apparently.
Ok let's say they don't care and they start moving again. Millions of gallons of output are offline and infrastructure is getting torched. We're at 20m a day deficit now, going to 5m a day isn't a whole lot better.
There is no short term option to get us back to Feb pricing. I'd love to be wrong, though. But every day that goes by until then is $20m more down the hole.
There was a way to do this and it involved planning for it five+ years ago. Hell they didn't even bother filling our SPR. It's still at 60% and much of that can't even be accessed without damaging the wells themselves apparently.
03-08-2026 | 06:30 PM
#15
Down goes Frazier
Joined: Mar 2023
Posts: 664
Likes: 129
From: AB FO
[mod edit]
Last edited by FangsF15; 03-09-2026 at 05:36 AM. Reason: Remove partisan swipe
03-08-2026 | 06:30 PM
#16
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2015
Posts: 2,527
Likes: 270
From: Guppy Gear Slinger
Not to mention the reality that skyrocketing oil prices will cause significant inflation across the rest of the economy, while at the exact same time unemployment is increasing. It's the classic definition of stagflation, which last happened during the Carter administration. Only this time -- the black swan event is of our own creation.
03-08-2026 | 06:35 PM
#17
Banned
Joined: Apr 2024
Posts: 594
Likes: 121
I’d wager it won’t take too much time to take out the remnants of a third world “navy”
A few of them are already surrendering, those who don’t will make for great fun for our silent service
A few of them are already surrendering, those who don’t will make for great fun for our silent service
03-08-2026 | 06:46 PM
#18
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 2,028
Likes: 246
From: A320 FO
The ripple effects through the economy are probably the longer term worry. Daily prices are certainly going up but quoting some futures price and multiplying by estimated gallons used doesn't work for airlines. They are in long term contracts at rates far lower than spot. Fare adjustments and fuel surcharges will also help.
Smaller carriers, especially if already in financial distress, are a worry. We're all (especially those who started 2000 or prior) hardwired to see black swans everywhere because we've been burned more than once. This might be one and it might not.
As always keep your furlough/downgrade fund topped off. Keep your FO house, etc.
Smaller carriers, especially if already in financial distress, are a worry. We're all (especially those who started 2000 or prior) hardwired to see black swans everywhere because we've been burned more than once. This might be one and it might not.
As always keep your furlough/downgrade fund topped off. Keep your FO house, etc.
03-08-2026 | 06:57 PM
#19
On Reserve
Joined: Nov 2022
Posts: 14
Likes: 1
The state dept is ordering diplomats out of Saudi Arabia. Seems like things may get a lot worse
03-08-2026 | 07:04 PM
#20
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 2,554
Likes: 65
Yes and that is all it would take to keep the strait closed. If it were so easy traffic would already be moving. A desperate regime has lots of options.
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