Surprising sometimes what’s possible if you’ve nowhere left to run. But you’re right, essential we be perceived as building influence on this detail. Defeatist rhetoric is a market killer.

You ignore the fact the Iranian Foreign Minister and Parliament speaker put out the fact that the Straight was “completely open”. Even Al Jazeera reported it.

The official representative of the government of Iran doesn’t do that if any of your statements are true, nor if they don’t have support from the very top.

What very likely happened is that the IRGC didn’t like ‘peaceful’ events going against “the revolution”, and seized control/went rogue.

mental gymnastics.
The POTUS Simultaneously said it was open and blockaded. Of course they then closed it.

Some of the posts here read like they are from cable news.

Because they are from cable news.

Doesn't anyone in a leadership role remember the legend of Croesus and his consulting the Oracle of Delphi?
And the objective fact that the nation he then attacked was Persia?

It's not mental gymnastics in the slightest. Did the Foreign minister and Speaker of the Parliament, the official representatives of Iran, declare the straight "completely open" or not? The president is simply stating that the blockade of Iranian ports will only be lifted when the handshake deal is formalized in ink. It's called a backstop. It happens all the time in negotiations, big and small.

You can try to claim this is part of some game on the part of the Iranians if you want, but you can't accuse the president of "lying" when the official representatives of the other side are formally validating the critical parts of what he is saying in public. That' s just bias coming screaming through.

Again, IMO it is far more likely that there are two competing factions within the Iranian government, and the IRGC is (in their minds) putting a capital "G" in IRGC. Almost a "over my dead body" kind of thing (maybe literally...)

This is far from over, from either perspective. Claims of 'this is over' are just as ridiculous as those who claim the sky is (inevitably) falling. There is a lot of baseball left to play...

Even with a claimed deal, the MEUs and 82nd airborne have still kept moving to the Middle East. The question isn’t whether the US can defeat Iran in a war, THAT could easily be done from the missile fields of North Dakota, it’s whether in the process of defeating them a war would destroy so much infrastructure that Europe and Asia now depend upon that we cause a worldwide depression. It‘S a complicated international ecosystem and you don’t want to produce any more chaos than necessary - if you can help it. That’s why you really do need to give lesser actions - like a blockade - time to work.

Agree with your above post and this one except for the last part. We are most definitely in denouement here. We hold all the cards right now. Last gasps of some rogue IRGC fellas that are pizzed their cheese was moved. They will soon be irrelevant. I firmly believe we are on the cusp of something brilliant happening in Iran. Can you imagine, in our lifetime Fangs, an Iran not ruled by mullahs buttressed by the IRGC?

Awesome!

How will Iran be governed going forward? Who is leading this movement for change and taking out the IRGC?

Well it won't be the mullahs and the IRGC now will it.

The rest, that's up to the Iranians.

Yes, this. The IRGC is acting up.

Might be bad, might be good.

Good that the regime is fracturing, means the pressure is working.

Bad that it might be harder to settle this thing.

Good that *somebody* over there seems inclined to cooperate.

Bad that we don't know who will ultimately wind up in charge.

Stand by to stand by.