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Lowslung 04-19-2026 07:08 AM


Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo (Post 4025124)
Well it won't be the mullahs and the IRGC now will it.

The rest, that's up to the Iranians.

A lot of optimism right here considering our very recent history of meddling with middle eastern governments has universally failed to produce the desired result. 🤷‍♂️

jerryleber 04-19-2026 07:23 AM


Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo (Post 4025124)
Well it won't be the mullahs and the IRGC now will it.

It won't? Why not?

Turbosina 04-19-2026 07:23 AM


Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo (Post 4025124)
Well it won't be the mullahs and the IRGC now will it.

The rest, that's up to the Iranians.

That strategy worked so well in Afghanistan and Iraq.

ThumbsUp 04-19-2026 07:24 AM


Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo (Post 4025124)
Well it won't be the mullahs and the IRGC now will it.

The rest, that's up to the Iranians.

The problem with that thought is the IRGC are controlled by the mullahs.

It would likely be a better outcome if their parliamentary faction were to get control, but that is unlikely without the IRGC’s annihilation.

rickair7777 04-19-2026 07:25 AM


Originally Posted by Lowslung (Post 4025126)
A lot of optimism right here considering our very recent history of meddling with middle eastern governments has universally failed to produce the desired result. 🤷‍♂️

The two examples of attempted full-scale nation-building didn't go well. Most of the rest of it has been fine over the last 30 years, striking a balance between diplomacy, economic engagement, pressure, and low-intensity intervention where sensible.

GCC has cleaned their own house and have relations with IL. Qaddafi swung from a light pole, Assad barely made it to Moscow with his skin intact, the new guy in Syria is objectively better despite his previous CV.

Turbosina 04-19-2026 07:28 AM

Putin's former #2 had this to say, and he's absolutely right:
"It’s not clear how the truce between Washington and Tehran will play out. But one thing is certain — Iran has tested its nuclear weapons. It’s called the Strait of Hormuz. Its potential is inexhaustible,” said Dmitri Medvedev, a former president of Russia and deputy chairman of the country’s security council,
last week.

Before this, it had been 40 years since Iran tried to close the Strait (during the war with Iraq). They (rightly) feared that closing the Strait would generate a coordinated response from Western powers. But now they've realized they only need a few drones and boats to paralyze tanker traffic. As Medvedev says above, that power may well be more of a deterrent than nuclear weapons ever could be.

METO Guido 04-19-2026 07:32 AM


Originally Posted by Lowslung (Post 4025126)
A lot of optimism right here considering our very recent history of meddling with middle eastern governments has universally failed to produce the desired result. 🤷‍♂️

Yeah, long odds. Powerball long. The Shah carried that fantasy into exile. Hash out a working bomb accord. Next.


Excargodog 04-19-2026 07:48 AM


Originally Posted by Turbosina (Post 4025138)
Putin's former #2 had this to say, and he's absolutely right:
"It’s not clear how the truce between Washington and Tehran will play out. But one thing is certain — Iran has tested its nuclear weapons. It’s called the Strait of Hormuz. Its potential is inexhaustible,” said Dmitri Medvedev, a former president of Russia and deputy chairman of the country’s security council,
last week.

Before this, it had been 40 years since Iran tried to close the Strait (during the war with Iraq). They (rightly) feared that closing the Strait would generate a coordinated response from Western powers. But now they've realized they only need a few drones and boats to paralyze tanker traffic. As Medvedev says above, that power may well be more of a deterrent than nuclear weapons ever could be.

Another thing aided and abetted by the fecklessness of our NATO allies. While geography certainly does give Iran an advantage, it’s been the unilateral disarmament of most of Western Europe that has enabled the Houthis, the Iranians, even Somali pirates armed only with AKs to prey on international shipping. Look at France and the UKs response (or lack of it) to this. While they may claim this is pique because Trump didn’t ask them “mother may I?” before kicking this off, the reality is they have so little military capability they really couldn’t be much help or hindrance in keeping open a passage far more important to them than to the US.

JurgenKlopp 04-19-2026 08:18 AM


Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo (Post 4025124)
Well it won't be the mullahs and the IRGC now will it.

The rest, that's up to the Iranians.

Sweet that worked super swell in Iraq. Thankfully Iran isn’t plagued by similar cultural, ethinic, and societal divides. Everyone there is proud to be Iranian first. So MIGA can happen…

OpieTaylor 04-19-2026 08:54 AM


Originally Posted by Lowslung (Post 4025126)
A lot of optimism right here considering our very recent history of meddling with middle eastern governments has universally failed to produce the desired result. 🤷‍♂️

We got it bro, war on drugs failed, war on poverty failed, war on crime failed.

Do we just dissolve the federal government now or only vote for people you like?

We know it will get worse if he takes a retreat to Camp David.


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