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Originally Posted by SoFloFlyer
(Post 4024899)
I think the all or nothing is a global power play. Approximately 70% of China’s oil comes through the SoH. I bet China will play a massive role in getting Oran to the table and getting them to play nice
China is far ahead of us in terms of alternative energy development (one trip to any Asian capital and all you'll see is Chinese electric cars, and Chinese sponsored energy projects)... skyrocketing oil prices and supply shortages, while they will negatively affect some Chinese industries, actually play to China's long term regional interests. I believe this is why they haven't gotten involved in any meaningful way. They're playing the long game and letting us continue the process of bleeding ourselves that began with the invasion of Iraq and continues today. |
Originally Posted by Turbosina
(Post 4024906)
That's all true (although Mexico? Haven't heard that). But tell me: how have the last seven weeks changed that? Their enriched material is just buried under more rubble. How has that situation been improved by our military campaign?
What results from this “excursion” is TBT. |
Originally Posted by SampsonSimpson
(Post 4024844)
Honestly, all we’ve done is taken a regimen that hates us and made them hate us more.
This will simply consolidate the unification of the Islamic state. It’ll move beyond political boarders. Thats when we really need to be worried. Pakistan will be key. They have wanted to be the authentic rulers of Iran since the revolution, and hate is for us not accepting that. The pursuit of nukes was to force that acceptance. It’s possible they have been beaten up enough, that they will be considered the authentic rulers and join the world. The problem with Obama’s deal is that he was going to let the nuke threat force him into considering them authentic so they would have clung to nukes even after agreement expired and they would emerge stronger. Trump destroyed the leader, the Air Force, the navy, and nuke program. They have clung to the straight so it is now the “source” of their authenticity. He can give them the straight and he can block their ports that is a stale mate. So he can recognize their authority now and release their money. But now they can only ever accomplish another stalemate if they “hate us and want to destroy us” They needed “a hook” to demand to be treated as “authentic rightful rulers” Israel hopefully can live with it being the SOH over nuke ambitions. If the SOH is their prize position of power hopefully they can be smart enough to stop with proxies and nukes which threaten Israel. Russia and China “hate” us but the nuke programs are a “stale mate” so they can perceive to not fight and cause violence with each other. We can all be grateful Jefferson Davis didn’t win our civil war, and tell the world he is authentic and Abe Lincoln was a puppet president propped up by Western Europe. China and Iran aren’t so luckily. |
Random question for the mods, this thread shows 111 pages but ends on page 109. Why do longer threads do that?
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 4024875)
and I thought you didn’t consider any one day event to be all that important to the big picture. Hypocrite much?
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Originally Posted by APCbot
(Post 4024942)
Random question for the mods, this thread shows 111 pages but ends on page 109. Why do longer threads do that?
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Originally Posted by Name User
(Post 4024947)
Probably two pages of deleted posts we can't see.
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Originally Posted by Turbosina
(Post 4024878)
Before the "excursion": The SoH was open to all traffic.
Today: closed to all traffic. Before: Oil stable at around $60. Today: Oil has increased by 50 pct and will likely go higher when markets reopen. Before: Jet fuel prices stable. Today: Jet fuel up by an average of 80 pct. (My usual cheap Jet A stop was $3.30/ gal, today they are at $6.35.) Before: Elderly, ailing imam in charge of the regime, with significant popular discontent posing a real challenge to the regime's continued existence. Today: More radical, much younger, and likely much angrier imam supposedly in charge. (In reality it's likely competing factions within the IRGC are duking it out for control, which is likely a worse situation than before.) Moreover, we've almost certainly turned public opinion even harder against us, deflecting their hatred for the regime onto the people who have been bombing them. Before: Russia's oil revenues were $9.7 billion/ month. Today: Russian oil revenues have doubled to $20 bn/ month. Before: Iran had enriched uranium buried deep underground. Today: Iran has enriched uranium buried deep underground. Before: Iran had a large conventional military capability and a significant asymmetrical warfare capability. Today: Iran's conventional military has been largely destroyed, but its asymmetric warfare capabilities remain powerful enough to allow them to close one of the world's most critical shipping lanes. These are the facts. (Aside from my opinion on the stability of the regime, which is just my opinion.) Everything else are verifiable, hard facts. If this looks like winning to you... Well then you have a different grasp on reality than I do. The only solution is complete destruction, which is a grand task that few would have the stomach for. |
Originally Posted by RippinClapBombs
(Post 4024918)
Here’s my vague answer to your question without having the publish an entire essay. It has applied real pressure on Iran’s capabilities and behavior. We have essentially destroyed Iran’s entire military infrastructure. With the broader campaign (naval blockades and sanctions enforcement) they have constrained Iran’s leverage. Now, suddenly Iran is open to negotiations…wow… I wonder why they have a sudden change of heart to be diplomatic with the West?
What results from this “excursion” is TBT. Where have we seen this movie before? |
Originally Posted by ThumbsUp
(Post 4024965)
The assumption that there was a popular threat against the theocracy that had any chance of causing change is a fallacy. I’m not even sure if the son of the previous terrorist is actually brain active (the last I saw he was missing limbs in a coma), but any of them put in charge by the council will be the same. They do not care what the proletariat think. They have their hooks in every segment of rule and plenty of nooses and bullets to go around.
The only solution is complete destruction, which is a grand task that few would have the stomach for. Another massive change from "before" to "after" is that before this erupted, Iran never really saw control over the Strait as a realistic strategy for them; they were too afraid of the blowback. Now that they've seized control with nothing more than drones, mines, and speedboats, they have come to realize that control over the Strait gives them almost as much, if not more, leverage than their nuclear program ever did. You see the location of one of the two ships struck today? Just a couple miles from the Emirati coast, clear across the Gulf from Iranian territory. |
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