What effect would that be? IRGC still in charge, SOH still closed, enriched uranium still unsecured, hundreds of $ billions spent, lives lost, allies alienated, price of oil high?

And again, this just wasn’t a thing for you prior to Feb 28.

The effect would be an Iran without Nuclear weapons nor the capability and will to produce them. It’s not a small undertaking to dismantle a terrorist group that is so entangled in Iranian society.

Then we are further from the effect than before the war started with a list of other serious negative unintended though easily predictable consequences.

I wouldn’t say so. They are certainly farther away from that capability; however, the only way (at least in my lifespan) to remove the will would be complete annihilation of the IRGC/theocracy.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ys-2026-04-21/



It’ll be here. It’s being staged off by market manipulation, shorting futures literally hours before Trump announces something major that drives the market a certain way. Complete manipulation and someone cashing it big time $$$$$.


But once all that’s settled down, paper money value of oil will catch up the physical oil price. America has been pretty insulated. I don’t think the average family that can’t cover a $400 emergency is ready for what’s coming.

They didn't forget how to enrich uranium, but now they are far more motivated to get a nuke as a result of this war. And China & I'd bet Russia are sending them munitions.Incredibly, it appears Netanyahu convinced Trump regime change would be relatively easy via decapitation. This is what happens with Vance, Rubio & Hegseth are the extent of your trusted advisers.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/u...-iran-war.html

They didn’t forget. But memory doesn’t infer a capability.

There is no was. Only do

They could of course purchase them from North Korea, Pakistan or even Russia. Those nations never before would have considered a sale. Things are different now. They might even be viewed as the good guys in providing nucs to Iran to protect it from the US who currently is viewed worldwide about the same as Germany in 1940. We have radically destabilized the Middle East. We have also left ourselves dangerously exposed to additional conflicts as we have expended far more weapons than the Pentagon planned or even considered using. JASSM’s available worldwide are down to 425 from 2300 prewar. We have used between 850 and 950 cruise missiles. We procure less than 100 per year.